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Ray of Hope - 135th Draw

chemistesa

Star Member
Feb 10, 2017
185
88
Ok man let me give you some facts:

First and the most important: As calculated multiple times in this thread as well as ray of hope 133th, 134th etc. The pool flow-in rate for 470+ is about 18+ people per score per day.

The flow-in rate of 465-470 can only be higher than this due to heavy-tail distribution. But lets assume it is 18 people per score per day as well.

465-468 have been accumulated in the pool for 110+ days. Thats 4*18*110 = 7920 people.
469-472 have been accumulated in the pool for 30+ days. Thats 4*30*18 = 2160 people.

Thats 10080 people total.

You think there is only 8 scores difference between 465 and 473? The difference is actually 10080 people.

With my calculation from ROH 134: https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-134th-draw.669700/page-8

1700/8*14 = 2975 people enters pool with CRS 469+ every 14 days.

Now tell me again, whats the chance of CRS 465 with only 3400ITAs each draw?
What about 470 my friend? No chance either?
 

XSY_ghostlike

Star Member
Nov 2, 2019
55
33
You are right but it's just that people around that score don't want to accept reality so soon (including ME), since I feel it is a decent score and chances were bright if people with the score entered around August. Which I miss really !
I hate to deliver nagative news but push score to 470 when you can.
All 470+ have chances before May.

The first 4-week-gap draw usually happens in May.
And there will be a cutline jump around Oct due to PGWP timepoint.
 
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Mandeep1989

Hero Member
Oct 23, 2017
639
148
Ok man let me give you some facts:

First and the most important: As calculated multiple times in this thread as well as ray of hope 133th, 134th etc. The pool flow-in rate for 470+ is about 18+ people per score per day.

The flow-in rate of 465-470 can only be higher than this due to heavy-tail distribution. But lets assume it is 18 people per score per day as well.

465-468 have been accumulated in the pool for 110+ days. Thats 4*18*110 = 7920 people.
469-472 have been accumulated in the pool for 30+ days. Thats 4*30*18 = 2160 people.

Thats 10080 people total.

You think there is only 8 scores difference between 465 and 473? The difference is actually 10080 people.

With my calculation from ROH 134: https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-134th-draw.669700/page-8

1700/8*14 = 2975 people enters pool with CRS 469+ every 14 days.

Now tell me again, whats the chance of CRS 465 with only 3400ITAs each draw?
U cnt be so sure that each score has 18 or what . There could be more people at 465 or whatever other score , and 3400 doesn’t mean that it would stay like that . Look at January 2019 draws -3 happened ( one with 3350) , and IRCC has increased the numbers . Hence , dnt over complicate it , as making such calculation is senseless , the only thing which could stop CRS from dropping is more than 2 weeks gap
 
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TheTAMAS

Full Member
Nov 1, 2019
49
15
The first 4-week-gap draw usually happens in May.
Where do you get this info from?
I noted that every year (past 3 years) May has seen a minimum of 2 draws.
I think, it's the 1st time that 4 week gap was seen (in October '19) between draws & that's clearly cuz of the elections.
 

sursin27

Member
Mar 4, 2018
18
4
Guys, please post with relevant information. People get tensed reading your calculations with no base behind it. This is called RAY OF HOPE not NEGATIVITY and yes, we all should try improving scores. We should work hard and then leave the rest on god which I feel still exists at times:)
 
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haris_rasheed

Hero Member
Jul 13, 2018
231
95
Guys just want to share something. I got my ITA on 8th JAN. When i started filling my application after recieving my ITA, the website re evaluated my score before submission. My CRS score was initially 474, but after re evaluation my score increased to 475. Trust me i didn't change anything in my application. How is that possible?
 

XSY_ghostlike

Star Member
Nov 2, 2019
55
33
U cnt be so sure that each score has 18 or what . There could be more people at 465 or whatever other score , and 3400 doesn’t mean that it would stay like that . Look at January 2019 draws -3 happened ( one with 3350) , and IRCC has increased the numbers . Hence , dnt over complicate it , as making such calculation is senseless , the only thing which could stop CRS from dropping is more than 2 weeks gap
I am not very certain about the "18" indeed, even if you change this number to "12", the result does not change.

I created my profile with CRS 465 (CLB 10,10,8,8) on 4/10/2019, just imagine my frustration back them.
Then I pushed it to CRS 496 (CLB 10,10,10,9) and got the ITA on Jan 8th.

I have been around since ROH 129 helping with the prediction, and my predictions were never off by more than 1 score.
 

sachief

Newbie
Jan 16, 2020
5
2
Ok man let me give you some facts:

First and the most important: As calculated multiple times in this thread as well as ray of hope 133th, 134th etc. The pool flow-in rate for 470+ is about 18+ people per score per day.

The flow-in rate of 465-470 can only be higher than this due to heavy-tail distribution. But lets assume it is 18 people per score per day as well.

465-468 have been accumulated in the pool for 110+ days. Thats 4*18*110 = 7920 people.
469-472 have been accumulated in the pool for 30+ days. Thats 4*30*18 = 2160 people.

Thats 10080 people total.

You think there is only 8 scores difference between 465 and 473? The difference is actually 10080 people.

With my calculation from ROH 134: https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-134th-draw.669700/page-8

1700/8*14 = 2975 people enters pool with CRS 469+ every 14 days.

Now tell me again, whats the chance of CRS 465 with only 3400ITAs each draw?
While these 'calculations' are useful, they are purely speculative at best. No one outside of IRCC has knowledge of the distribution of scores in the range 451-500, and to make assumptions on the rate of people entering per day (even if based on past trends) and the distrubtion of scores within such a wide range is just guesswork.
 
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Mandeep1989

Hero Member
Oct 23, 2017
639
148
I am not very certain about the "18" indeed, even if you change this number to "12", the result does not change.

I created my profile with CRS 465 (CLB 10,10,8,8) on 4/10/2019, just imagine my frustration back them.
Then I pushed it to CRS 496 (CLB 10,10,10,9) and got the ITA on Jan 8th.

I have been around since ROH 129 helping with the prediction, and my predictions were never off by more than 1 score.
Yh , even last year in the month of may or June not sure , people didn’t even think that the scores would drop below 460,and a draw of 457 happened . U have got ur ITA now , increasing scores is a good thing , but dnt make negative comments , u cnt guess anything , u I’ll see draws in the future with less numbers
 

chemistesa

Star Member
Feb 10, 2017
185
88
WES has stopped giving Master equivalencies for some MBA degrees from India and IQAS (which used to give higher equivalencies than WES does) stopped accepting applications for few months due to their backlog which made me think tjat it will affect the scores eventually. Correct me if I am wrong
 

KK_THE_GREAT

Star Member
Nov 20, 2019
67
22
has anyone learnt french in mumbai india? can you give me suggestion on good classes. if there are any good classes near borivali then it is vest otherwise any area is okay.
 

zagcollins

Champion Member
Sep 9, 2017
1,302
755
Category........
FSW
WES has stopped giving Master equivalencies for some MBA degrees from India and IQAS (which used to give higher equivalencies than WES does) stopped accepting applications for few months due to their backlog which made me think tjat it will affect the scores eventually. Correct me if I am wrong
your assumption here is that you are competing with Indians applying from India vs. Indians who are sitting in Canada with Canadian degrees and/or have Canadian work ex.
 
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zee90999

Hero Member
Dec 24, 2019
301
203
Would I receive an email if I get a nomination / NOI? Because I don’t login to check my express entry profile on a regular basis.
 
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