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Ray of Hope - 133rd Draw

Wrath

Hero Member
Nov 3, 2019
381
159
Toronto
Category........
CEC
If there is draw tomorrow and population in 451-600 range doesnt go beyond 9,000 there is great chance to see cut off from 465-468
 

midtagh

Newbie
Dec 11, 2019
5
12
Will it make a difference if you just wait it out or have some insider info today?
you are right :)) but I'm stressed out a bit and in addition, if they don't draw tomorrow I'm gonna have a frustrating day; I will keep checking here and cic the whole day, while there won't be any draw. That's why I wanted to know if there is any insider news regarding the draw.
 

indpnv

Hero Member
Mar 16, 2018
743
337
United States
you are right :)) but I'm stressed out a bit and in addition, if they don't draw tomorrow I'm gonna have a frustrating day; I will keep checking here and cic the whole day, while there won't be any draw. That's why I wanted to know if there is any insider news regarding the draw.
Just check during the evening eastern time. Even if a draw happens, you would get the ita after few hours (if you make the cut), so doesn't matter if you keep checking cic the whole day.
 

sys1user

Full Member
Apr 30, 2019
22
29
OINP exhausted its 2019 quota around the same time as the previous EE draw. They now have an additional 700 nominations and are handing them out like Halloween candy. Other provinces are rushing to fill their quotas before the Christmas break.

If 3200 ITAs continue, CRS may not go down too much in a B2B scenario this week or next Monday's draw. CRS may even go up and end 2019 on a high.
 

Fantastica

Star Member
Sep 18, 2019
164
61
I know we are all predicting as non of us work with IRCC but I would want to bet that it would be around 467 or below... Max will be 468.... I'm totally convinced about this.

Next draw should be 3900 ITAs to reach their high target of 86000 for 2019.

They have issued 82100 so far. 86,000-82100=3900

So 3900 ITAs should be issued tomorrow and that should deepen the crs scores hopefully to 465
 
Last edited:

Xtensio

Full Member
May 8, 2019
31
7
So if there is a draw tomorrow, I think it won’t go below 465 with 3900 ITAs issued.
3200 ITAs last Wednesday, 715 were above 600 = 2485 in the range of 600-472

Since there was a cutoff date, a couple of ppl were left with 472 CRS. Let’s pretend there were 150 ppl with 472 on December 11th after the draw.
= at least 2635 people joined the pool (or improved their score) within 14 days.
= about 189 People join the pool per day with a score above 471.. crazy - right?
and 51 People with a score above 600.

If there is a B2B draw (and I’m praying for that): The first 1680 ITAs ((189+51)x7) would going to those people with a CRS of >471.

The numbers above are pretty stable. However, the rest is more guessing than calculating:

We know there were about 2635 people with a score of 472, which means on 12/11/19 there were 13282 ppl in the range of 451-471. I guess there are more people in the range of 451-460 than 461-471.

If (and again, I don’t think so) there is a equal spread of candidates per point, there are about 633 ppl per point.

Now the problem :-(
Nobody know how many ITAs will be issued...
3200 ITAs: 1520 ITAs left for ppl with a score of 471 or less, 663 people per CRS point = 468-469

3600 ITAs issued:
= 465-466

3900 ITAs issued:
=464-465

But again: I don’t know the spread, so the last part of my calculation is nothing more than a good guess
 

nawalasansol

Hero Member
May 29, 2017
214
82
I don't think the score is going to come down below 467 anytime in the future and there are two reasons for this.

1. Tons of foreign student came to Canada a couple of years ago and now they are eligible for PR with score of 490+
2. work permit holder, I can see getting accumulated as well, and they are really trying hard to score above 480, local English exam center (CELPIP) full for a month at least.

These data are really scary for me. Got to know few people actively busy for the last 3 years for PR applications.
 

SylviaAltor

Full Member
Oct 30, 2019
46
7
Be more realistic and assume there won't be any draw in 2019. Who can predict when the score will go down to 475 again in 2020? With one month gap, the January score will be Everest high