Ray of Hope - 132nd Draw

[superexpressentry]

Hello Dheana90

I've always followed your analysis. Great job and thank you for the work.

I'm stuck at 461 with IELTS maxes out.

When do you see my turn coming given your analysis.

I'll be losing 5 points July next year. That will be 456.

Thanks..

Below is my calculation estimation if the draws for December take place on 4th Dec and 18th Dec and also Jan 3rd:

After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166


It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)

451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)

441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).


So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score

After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.

471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score

So, by 4th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x7days)
451-600=14,453(13,088+1,365(195x7d)
441-450= 9,199(9,178+21(3x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,365 profile from 27th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,365/31=44profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 465-467
3,600 minus:
-497(601-1200)
-44 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-44 (of 480 newly added score)
-44 (of 479 newly added score)
-44 (of 478 newly added score)
-44 (of 477 newly added score)
-44 (of 476 newly added score)
-44 (of 475 newly added score)
-44 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 473 newly added score)
-44 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 468 newly added score)
-386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 467 newly added score)
-386 of 466 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 466 newly added score)
-320 (of 386 of 465 left after 27th Nov draw)



After 4th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 465, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -497)
451-600 =11,350(14,453-3,103)
441-450= 9,199

Note: As cut off was 465, it means that the 11,350 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-465 only.

465score = 110 (386-320+44)
451-464= 916(872+44)people/score


So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=14,080(11,350+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,241(9,199+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 4th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-110 (of 465 left after 4th Dec draw)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-916 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-84 (of 88 of 464 newly added score)


After 18th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =11,474(14,080-2,606)
441-450= 9,241

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 11,474 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464score = 4 (88-84)
451-463= 1,004(916+88)people/score


So, by 3rd January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,136(71x16days)
451-600=14,594(11,474+3,120(195x16d)
441-450= 9,289(9,241+48(3x16days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,120/31=100profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,600 minus:
-1,136(601-1200)
-100 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-100 (of 480 newly added score)
-100 (of 479 newly added score)
-100 (of 478 newly added score)
-100 (of 477 newly added score)
-100 (of 476 newly added score)
-100 (of 475 newly added score)
-100 (of 474 newly added score)
-100 (of 473 newly added score)
-100 (of 472 newly added score)
-100 (of 471 newly added score)
-100 (of 470 newly added score)
-100 (of 469 newly added score)
-100 (of 468 newly added score)
-100 (of 467 newly added score)
-100 (of 466 newly added score)
-100 (of 465 newly added score)
-4 (of 464 left after 18th Dec draw)
-100 of 464 newly added score)
-560 (of 1004 of 463 left after 18th Dec draw).

lon

 

[SophiaLuo]

can anyone explain why i got this message in my ee profile online

Express entry status : "Your profile is pending. We will send you a message when your profile is in the system."
I cant see my score even. Waited for 10 mins and still nothing

On the same boat with you, have no idea how long to wait

 

[SophiaLuo]

Should i delete and recreate?

have no idea …… are there any experienced guys who can help us with what's going on? Thanks a lot!!!

 

[WarHammer]

Should i delete and recreate?

I don’t know what it means but have some patience and exercise common sense. The message clearly indicates this is something on CIC’s plate and that your profile will be in the system soon. Give it a day or two before jumping to any conclusion like deleting profile etc.

 

[SophiaLuo]

I don’t know what it means but have some patience and exercise common sense. The message clearly indicates this is something on CIC’s plate and that your profile will be in the system soon. Give it a day or two before jumping to any conclusion like deleting profile etc.

thx very much for your reply, we just feel panic since this is the first time, have you experienced the same phase?

 

[indpnv]

thx very much for your reply, we just feel panic since this is the first time, have you experienced the same phase?

If the message says it's pending and they would send a message once done, would wait a day or two.
Post-ITA would be fun for you

 

[tonydlaw24]

Greetings everyone, a friend asked me this question and would need some answers “my accompanying spouse has an average of 33 hours weekly. Would that affect our scores or application? And also how many hours is considered full time.” I’m the principal applicant in this case and my work hours is 40 hours minimum
Thanks

Your friend’s accompanying spouse need not proof work experience/ hours worked, although it still wise to submit a work reference letter bearing the length of employment and duration of work hours. As for your friend, 40 hours full time employment should be sufficient if stated in his/her reference letter.

 

[naija2canadapr]

*Boss Baby

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

 

[naija2canadapr]

This name is definitely for my son but not me,thank you very much

 

[naija2canadapr]

Because I believe December draws will be conducted on 11th and 18 only or 4th and 18th,dear. Looking at previous year's Dec draws, IRCC never do draws between 24-1 January and I think the office will be close for Christmas and New Year's holiday from 25th Dec until 2nd of January and I guess the office will be open again from 3rd January in Canada. So,that's why I make calculation for 3rd Jan.

Below are the previous year's draw dates
2018:
Jan 10th and 24th
Dec 12th and 19th

2017:
Jan 4th, 11th and 25th
Dec 6th and 20th


2016:
Jan 6th and 13th
Dec 16th and 22nd


2015:
Dec 4th and 18th

@Dheana90 using this stats provided, I think there is a chance that tomorrow may have a draw.
My opinion is stemmed from the fact that:
In 2015, there was a 2-week gap with the first draw being in the first week of December.
In 2016, there was a 1-week gap with the first draw being in the 2nd/3rd week of December.
In 2017, there was a 2-week gap again with the first draw done in the 1st week of December.
In 2018, which was last year, there was a 1-week gap with the first draw done in the 2nd week of December.
Following the patterns I just listed above, it's time for a 2-week gap with the first draw done in the first week of December 2019. Tomorrow is that day in the first week of December.


Your predictions are usually right so I pray that a draw happens tomorrow, I am one of the few people who have been sitting at 470 since October with all documents ready, just waiting for an invite so I can apply.

FINGERS CROSSED, hopefully waiting for tomorrow. If you are a Nigerian, I can be found on IG @naija2canadapr. Please feel free to connect. I just posted a really helpful video yesterday.

 

[Dheana90]

Hello Dheana90

I've always followed your analysis. Great job and thank you for the work.

I'm stuck at 461 with IELTS maxes out.

When do you see my turn coming given your analysis.

I'll be losing 5 points July next year. That will be 456.

Thanks..


lon

Hi dear @superexpressentry ,

If I have to continue use the 23rd Nov CRS data and if this trend continue then the CRS cut off will touch down at 461 on 31st Jan draw. However, because only 44 out of 1,192 people sitting at 461 will be invited, this will be depends on your submission date. You may make the tie break date or you may not. As a tie breaking rule: people who has the same cut off score will be decided by their submission date. Whoever submit their profile first (the 44th person at 461), for example, they submit in September of earlier will obviously get ITA than those who just submit theie EE profile in November. Please see the whole calculation below.

After 3rd Jan draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 463, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,136)
451-600 =12,130(14,594-2,464)
441-450= 9,289

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 12,130, profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only.

463score = 544 (1,004-560+100)
451-462= 1,104(1,004+100)people/score


So, by 17rd January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=14,860(12,130+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,331(9,289+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 3rd Jan to 17th Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 462-464
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-88 (of 464 newly added score)
-444 (of 463 left after 3rd Jan draw)
-88 (of 463 newly added score)
-390 (of 1,104 of 462 left after 3rd Jan draw)

After 17th Jan draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 462, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =12,254(14,860-2,606)
441-450= 9,331

Note: As cut off was 462, it means that the 12,254 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-462 only.

462score = 802 (1,104-390+88)
451-461= 1,192(1,104+188)people/score


So, by 31st January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=14,984(12,254+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,373(9,331+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 17th Jan to 31st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 461-463
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-88 (of 464 newly added score)
-88 (of 463 newly added score)
-802 (of 462 left after 17th Jan draw)
-88 (of 462 newly added score)
-44 (of 1,192 of 461 left after 17th Jan draw).

 

[Dheana90]

@Dheana90 using this stats provided, I think there is a chance that tomorrow may have a draw.
My opinion is stemmed from the fact that:
In 2015, there was a 2-week gap with the first draw being in the first week of December.
In 2016, there was a 1-week gap with the first draw being in the 2nd/3rd week of December.
In 2017, there was a 2-week gap again with the first draw done in the 1st week of December.
In 2018, which was last year, there was a 1-week gap with the first draw done in the 2nd week of December.
Following the patterns I just listed above, it's time for a 2-week gap with the first draw done in the first week of December 2019. Tomorrow is that day in the first week of December.


Your predictions are usually right so I pray that a draw happens tomorrow, I am one of the few people who have been sitting at 470 since October with all documents ready, just waiting for an invite so I can apply.

FINGERS CROSSED, hopefully waiting for tomorrow. If you are a Nigerian, I can be found on IG @naija2canadapr. Please feel free to connect. I just posted a really helpful video yesterday.

Yes. I'd say that there is 50/50 chance of a draw happening tomorrow. IRCC has been very unpredictable this year so that's why I don't really think that they has a pattern in conducting a draw. But if there is a draw tomorrow, I'm convident that you and others who have score of 470 will get ITA in tomorrow's draw. As per my calculation, if there will be a draw tomorrow, the cut off will be arround 465-467. The closer the gap between draws the faster and lower the CRS cut off will be. Let's hope there will be a draw tomorrow. All the best,dear..

 

[robin6869]

Yes. I'd say that there is 50/50 chance of a draw happening tomorrow. IRCC has been very unpredictable this year so that's why I don't really think that they has a pattern in conducting a draw. But if there is a draw tomorrow, I'm convident that you and others who have score of 470 will get ITA in tomorrow's draw. As per my calculation, if there will be a draw tomorrow, the cut off will be arround 465-467. The closer the gap between draws the faster and lower the CRS cut off will be. Let's hope there will be a draw tomorrow. All the best,dear..

I badly hope that draw happens tomorrow, Well to be frank I would like to see draw happening everyday But since CIC not looking in mood to reach 89K this year after they reduced ITAs, it feels kind of hopeless for tomorrow. And those guys who are very good at predictions, I make request that even if you get ITA and get busy preparing your documents ready, but please spare some time for ray of hope threads. So many people would be waiting for your valuable predictions. Thank You and I hope there's draw tomorrow.

 

[umayash]

I badly hope that draw happens tomorrow, Well to be frank I would like to see draw happening everyday But since CIC not looking in mood to reach 89K this year after they reduced ITAs, it feels kind of hopeless for tomorrow. And those guys who are very good at predictions, I make request that even if you get ITA and get busy preparing your documents ready, but please spare some time for ray of hope threads. So many people would be waiting for your valuable predictions. Thank You and I hope there's draw tomorrow.

as you said, if we meet the crs cut off, what r th3e basis of getting ITA. Does all meeting crs cut off gets ITA or what ... pl anybody tell

 

[Nixnic19]

I badly hope that draw happens tomorrow, Well to be frank I would like to see draw happening everyday But since CIC not looking in mood to reach 89K this year after they reduced ITAs, it feels kind of hopeless for tomorrow. And those guys who are very good at predictions, I make request that even if you get ITA and get busy preparing your documents ready, but please spare some time for ray of hope threads. So many people would be waiting for your valuable predictions. Thank You and I hope there's draw tomorrow.

I also hope for a draw tomorrow and for CRS to jump off the cliff. lol It has been devastating to check rounds since October and say to myself, not again dude. Haha

Let's all pray for our Canadian dream and for the people in the same journey.