Ray of Hope - 132nd Draw
- Thread starter 13nitinsharma
- Start date
Below is my calculation estimation if the draws for December take place on 4th Dec and 18th Dec and also Jan 3rd:
After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135
Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.
472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166
It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)
451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)
441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).
So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))
Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score
After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178
Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.
471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score
So, by 4th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=497(71x7days)
451-600=14,453(13,088+1,365(195x7d)
441-450= 9,199(9,178+21(3x7days))
Suppose that from the newly added 1,365 profile from 27th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,365/31=44profile/score
With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 465-467
3,600 minus:
-497(601-1200)
-44 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-44 (of 480 newly added score)
-44 (of 479 newly added score)
-44 (of 478 newly added score)
-44 (of 477 newly added score)
-44 (of 476 newly added score)
-44 (of 475 newly added score)
-44 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 473 newly added score)
-44 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 468 newly added score)
-386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 467 newly added score)
-386 of 466 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 466 newly added score)
-320 (of 386 of 465 left after 27th Nov draw)
After 4th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 465, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -497)
451-600 =11,350(14,453-3,103)
441-450= 9,199
Note: As cut off was 465, it means that the 11,350 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-465 only.
465score = 110 (386-320+44)
451-464= 916(872+44)people/score
So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=14,080(11,350+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,241(9,199+42(3x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 4th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score
With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-110 (of 465 left after 4th Dec draw)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-916 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-84 (of 88 of 464 newly added score)
After 18th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =11,474(14,080-2,606)
441-450= 9,241
Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 11,474 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.
464score = 4 (88-84)
451-463= 1,004(916+88)people/score
So, by 3rd January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=1,136(71x16days)
451-600=14,594(11,474+3,120(195x16d)
441-450= 9,289(9,241+48(3x16days))
Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,120/31=100profile/score
With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,600 minus:
-1,136(601-1200)
-100 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-100 (of 480 newly added score)
-100 (of 479 newly added score)
-100 (of 478 newly added score)
-100 (of 477 newly added score)
-100 (of 476 newly added score)
-100 (of 475 newly added score)
-100 (of 474 newly added score)
-100 (of 473 newly added score)
-100 (of 472 newly added score)
-100 (of 471 newly added score)
-100 (of 470 newly added score)
-100 (of 469 newly added score)
-100 (of 468 newly added score)
-100 (of 467 newly added score)
-100 (of 466 newly added score)
-100 (of 465 newly added score)
-4 (of 464 left after 18th Dec draw)
-100 of 464 newly added score)
-560 (of 1004 of 463 left after 18th Dec draw).
Amen to that. I hope the cut off will be much lower than 469. I want it to be 465 atleast.
I don’t think an ITA or moving to Canada is worth spending time away from loved ones. Given current time frames you could be looking at many years apart from your spouse if you take this route of spouse not accompanying.
467 isn’t all that bad. You should wait. There should still be a more than decent chance for high 460s next year to get ITA.
I think spouse sponsorship takes around a year. I didnt get the "Many years" part. Can you please elaborate if you have any more details about current time frames.
Greetings everyone, a friend asked me this question and would need some answers “my accompanying spouse has an average of 33 hours weekly. Would that affect our scores or application? And also how many hours is considered full time.” I’m the principal applicant in this case and my work hours is 40 hours minimum
Thanks
Thanks
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Below 471 ppl are just accomulating at each score speacially....it has not been cleared since months now
