Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

[Dheana90]

Any predictions if draw occurs on next tuesday/wednesday !!!! I think It should go as low as 463-465.

below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off if the draw happens on 6th Nov:

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833

It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 25, 2019:
601-1,200= 1,255
451-600=12,999
441-450= 9,045

It means in 14 days from Oct 11nd to Oct 25th, there where:
601-1,200 = 53 profile/day (1,255-509=746/14days)

451-600 = 241prof/day (12,999-9,632= 3,367/14days)

441-450 = 15 prof/day(9,045-8,833= 212/14days)

For the range 451-600,let's take the middle number between 314 and 241(278) as the number of people/day who enter the EE pool.

So, by 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,520(1,255+265(53x5days)
451-600=14,389(12,999+1,390(278x5d)
441-450= 9,120(9,045+75(15x5days))


Suppose that from the newly added 7,579(2,822+3,367+1,390) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, 50% of it (3697) will be distributed equally to (471-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,789/10=344profile/score and the other half will be distributed equally to 451-470.Thus,it will make 3,789/20=189profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off 475
3,900 minus:
-1,520(601-1200)
-344 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-344 (of 480 newly added score)
-344 (of 479 newly added score)
-344 (of 478 newly added score)
-344 (of 477 newly added score)
-344 (of 476 newly added score)
-316(of 344 of 475 newly added score)


After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 475, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,520)
451-600 =12,009(14,389-2,380)
441-450= 9,120

Note: As cut off was 475, it means that the 12,009 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-475 only.

475 score = 28
471-474= 344people/score
465-470=189people/score
451-464= 675(486+189)people/score

For the range 451-600,let's assume that the number of people/day who enter the EE pool will reduce further to 241people/day.

So, by 6th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=371(53x7days)
451-600=13,696(12,009+1,687(241x7d)
441-450= 9,2259,120+105(15x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,687 profile from 30th Oct to 6th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,687/31=54profile/score

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,900 minus:
-371(601-1200)
-54 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-54 (of 480 newly added score)
-54 (of 479 newly added score)
-54 (of 478 newly added score)
-54 (of 477 newly added score)
-54 (of 476 newly added score)
-28(of 475 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 475 newly added score)
-344(of 474 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 474 newly added score)
-344(of 473 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 473 newly added score)
-344(of 472 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 472 newly added score)
-344(of 471 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 471 newly added score)
-189(of 470 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 470 newly added score)
-189(of 469 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54(of 469 newly added score)
-189(of 468 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 468 newly added score)
-189(of 467 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54(of 467 newly added score)
-189(of 466 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 466 newly added score)
-189(of 465 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54(of 465 newly added score)
-383(of 675 of 464 left after 30th Oct draw).

 

[Rickyguggu]

below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off if the draw happens on 6th Nov:

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833

It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 25, 2019:
601-1,200= 1,255
451-600=12,999
441-450= 9,045

It means in 14 days from Oct 11nd to Oct 25th, there where:
601-1,200 = 53 profile/day (1,255-509=746/14days)

451-600 = 241prof/day (12,999-9,632= 3,367/14days)

441-450 = 15 prof/day(9,045-8,833= 212/14days)

For the range 451-600,let's take the middle number between 314 and 241(278) as the number of people/day who enter the EE pool.

So, by 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,520(1,255+265(53x5days)
451-600=14,389(12,999+1,390(278x5d)
441-450= 9,120(9,045+75(15x5days))


Suppose that from the newly added 7,579(2,822+3,367+1,390) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, 50% of it (3697) will be distributed equally to (471-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,789/10=344profile/score and the other half will be distributed equally to 451-470.Thus,it will make 3,789/20=189profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off 475
3,900 minus:
-1,520(601-1200)
-344 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-344 (of 480 newly added score)
-344 (of 479 newly added score)
-344 (of 478 newly added score)
-344 (of 477 newly added score)
-344 (of 476 newly added score)
-316(of 344 of 475 newly added score)


After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 475, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,520)
451-600 =12,009(14,389-2,380)
441-450= 9,120

Note: As cut off was 475, it means that the 12,009 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-475 only.

475 score = 28
471-474= 344people/score
465-470=189people/score
451-464= 675(486+189)people/score

For the range 451-600,let's assume that the number of people/day who enter the EE pool will reduce further to 241people/day.

So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=371(53x7days)
451-600=13,696(12,009+1,687(241x7d)
441-450= 9,2259,120+105(15x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,687 profile from 30th Oct to 6th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,687/31=54profile/score

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,900 minus:
-371(601-1200)
-54 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-54 (of 480 newly added score)
-54 (of 479 newly added score)
-54 (of 478 newly added score)
-54 (of 477 newly added score)
-54 (of 476 newly added score)
-28(of 475 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 475 newly added score)
-344(of 474 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 474 newly added score)
-344(of 473 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 473 newly added score)
-344(of 472 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 472 newly added score)
-344(of 471 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 471 newly added score)
-189(of 470 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 470 newly added score)
-189(of 469 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54(of 469 newly added score)
-189(of 468 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 468 newly added score)
-189(of 467 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54(of 467 newly added score)
-189(of 466 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54 (of 466 newly added score)
-189(of 465 left after 30th Oct draw)
-54(of 465 newly added score)
-383(of 675 of 464 left after 30th Oct draw).

What do you think of CRS score 460?

 

[journey21]

No point to calculate whatever score likelihood because IRCC is so unpredictable.
Better not set yourselves up for disappointment.
Instead, direct your energy fully into upping your score.

 

[VKA]

No point to calculate whatever score likelihood because IRCC is so unpredictable.
Better not set yourselves up for disappointment.
Instead, direct your energy fully into upping your score.

I highly agree with you but @Dheana90 has been always an agile score predictor since I joined this community. His predictions are logical and help a lot of aspirants to get positive to plan their next move. So, whether the draw happens this week or next week, we should pay heed to these predictions and thank the person devoting his time for it.
And needless to say, as you said, try for upping our score

 

[nri7777]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
Updated (October 30th)

• 460+ (Total 39): | Brain_Drain: 475 | stepass: 474 | Arsh45: 474 | elpoyoloco: 474 | adilgigyani: 473 | vinegarandsalt: 473 | HariPriya12: 471 | EricD: 471 | Ria-sharma: 469 | Mandeep1989: 469 | mudjawd: 468 | cshetna: 468 | Alina2222: 468 | sri8707 : 467 | Tahsina89: 466 | hkabz: 466 | Tanvirk: 465 | cas009: 465 | umayash: 465 | Ca_karan: 464 | imtiaz_canada: 464 | Anu66: 463 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | BindhuMadhvi: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Dimpysimple: 462 | aikay: 462 | cas009: 462 | gobsaini: 462 | haris_raseed: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 | AJ1208: 461 | shergill12: 461| sinmansion: 461 | bambisp: 461 | cdddelhi: 461 |

• 455-460 (Total 77) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Rickygugu: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | anukaran: 459 | awley: 459 | Nandita16: 459 | haider_Ali: 459 | WunderCat: 459 | Shawan: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | blueshark: 458 | Kumar Vipul Shrivastva: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Manishprasher: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Imran_114: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Dr Seun: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 | Hsiddiqui: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 64) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | SlowBurn: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | arvw: 453 | AR7: 453 | tokalaangel: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Artk: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | a.altigani: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |

• 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |

If your score is not included in the list or score is changed please reply to this post with your current score. Thanks!

kindly add me i am at 470

 

[Luckbrother]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
Updated (October 30th)

• 460+ (Total 39): | Brain_Drain: 475 | stepass: 474 | Arsh45: 474 | elpoyoloco: 474 | adilgigyani: 473 | vinegarandsalt: 473 | HariPriya12: 471 | EricD: 471 | Ria-sharma: 469 | Mandeep1989: 469 | mudjawd: 468 | cshetna: 468 | Alina2222: 468 | sri8707 : 467 | Tahsina89: 466 | hkabz: 466 | Tanvirk: 465 | cas009: 465 | umayash: 465 | Ca_karan: 464 | imtiaz_canada: 464 | Anu66: 463 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | BindhuMadhvi: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Dimpysimple: 462 | aikay: 462 | cas009: 462 | gobsaini: 462 | haris_raseed: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 | AJ1208: 461 | shergill12: 461| sinmansion: 461 | bambisp: 461 | cdddelhi: 461 |

• 455-460 (Total 77) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Rickygugu: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | anukaran: 459 | awley: 459 | Nandita16: 459 | haider_Ali: 459 | WunderCat: 459 | Shawan: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | blueshark: 458 | Kumar Vipul Shrivastva: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Manishprasher: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Imran_114: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Dr Seun: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 | Hsiddiqui: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 64) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | SlowBurn: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | arvw: 453 | AR7: 453 | tokalaangel: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Artk: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | a.altigani: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |

• 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |

If your score is not included in the list or score is changed please reply to this post with your current score. Thanks!

I've not been added. I'm at 468

 

[dilmohit]

kindly add me i am at 470

Add me i am at 461

 

[Dheana90]

@Rickyguggu ,If there will be a draw this coming Tuesday or Wednesday and if the IRCC do not skip anymore FSW draw (regular 2 weeks gap), the CRS cut off will probably reach 460 by:

After 6th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -371)
451-600 =10,167(13,969-3,529)
441-450= 9,225

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 10,167 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464 score = 346
451-463= 729(675+54)people/score


So, by 20th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=13,541(10,167+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,435(9,225+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 6th Nov to 20th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-346(of 464 left after 6th Nov draw)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-305(of 729 of 463 left after 6th Nov draw)


After 6th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =10,383(13,541-3,158)
441-450= 9,435

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 10,383 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only.
463 score = 533
451-462= 838(729+109)people/score


So, by 4th Dec, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=13,757(10,383+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,645(9,435+210(15x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 3,374profile from 20th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 462-464
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-533(of 463 left after 20th Nov draw)
-109(of 463 newly added score)
-554(of 838 of 462 left after 20th Nov draw)


After 4th Dec draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =10,599(13,757-3,158)
441-450= 9,645


Note: As cut off was 462, it means that the 10,599 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-462 only.

462 score = 393
451-461= 947(838+109)people/score

So, by 18th Dec, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=13,973(10,599+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,855(9,645+210(15x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 3,374profile from 20th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 461-463
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-109(of 463 newly added score)
-393 of 462 left after 4th Dec draw)
-109(of 462 newly added score)
-947of 461 left after 4th Dec draw)
-31(of 109 of 461 newly added score)


After 18th Dec draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 461, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =10,815(13,973-3,158)
441-450= 9,855


Note: As cut off was 461, it means that the 10,815 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-461 only.

461 score = 78
451-460= 1,056(947+109)people/score

So, by 1st Jan, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=14,189(10,815+3,374(241x14d)
441-450=10,065(9,855+210(15x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 3,374profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 460-462
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-109(of 463 newly added score)
-109(of 462 newly added score)
-109(of 461 newly added score)
-78(of 461 left after 18th Dec draw)
-109(of 460 newly added score)
-791(of 1,056 of 460 left after 18th Dec draw)

 

[blueshark]

@Rickyguggu ,If there will be a draw this coming Tuesday or Wednesday and if the IRCC do not skip anymore FSW draw (regular 2 weeks gap), the CRS cut off will probably reach 460 by:

After 6th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -371)
451-600 =10,167(13,969-3,529)
441-450= 9,225

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 10,167 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464 score = 346
451-463= 729(675+54)people/score


So, by 20th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=13,541(10,167+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,435(9,225+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 6th Nov to 20th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-346(of 464 left after 6th Nov draw)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-305(of 729 of 463 left after 6th Nov draw)


After 6th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =10,383(13,541-3,158)
441-450= 9,435


Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 10,383 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only.

463 score = 533
451-462= 838(729+109)people/score

So, by 4th Dec, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=13,757(10,383+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,645(9,435+210(15x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 3,374profile from 20th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 462-464
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-533(of 463 left after 20th Nov draw)
-109(of 463 newly added score)
-554(of 838 of 462 left after 20th Nov draw)


After 4th Dec draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =10,599(13,757-3,158)
441-450= 9,645


Note: As cut off was 462, it means that the 10,599 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-462 only.

462 score = 393
451-461= 947(838+109)people/score

So, by 18th Dec, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=13,973(10,599+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,855(9,645+210(15x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 3,374profile from 20th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 461-463
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-109(of 463 newly added score)
-393 of 462 left after 4th Dec draw)
-109(of 462 newly added score)
-947of 461 left after 4th Dec draw)
-31(of 109 of 461 newly added score)

After 18th Dec draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 461, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =10,815(13,973-3,158)
441-450= 9,855


Note: As cut off was 461, it means that the 10,815 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-461 only.

461 score = 78
451-460= 1,056(947+109)people/score

So, by 1st Jan, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=14,189(10,815+3,374(241x14d)
441-450=10,065(9,855+210(15x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 3,374profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 461-463
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-109(of 463 newly added score)
-109(of 462 newly added score)
-109(of 461 newly added score)
-78(of 461 left after 18th Dec draw)
-109(of 460 newly added score)
-791(of 1,056 of 461 left after 18th Dec draw)

So even they conduct regular draws , there's no chance for 458?

 

[Dheana90]

So even they conduct regular draws , there's no chance for 458?

Probably early next year,dear...But we never now. This calculation is only estimation based on the published CRS data by IRCC which is 5days old as well when published on the draw date. So,the influx of people who have score range of 451-600 is irregular. One day can be 241 and another day can be 300 and some day might be only 100. So, anything is possible here. The cut off score might be less than 460 in the very next draw or maybe not.

All I can say is that please don't lose hope. The cut off score will come down and you will get ITA in time. If you can increase your score in any way now,please do so if you can't wait until next year so that it can put your mind at ease knowing that your score is higher and your turn to get ITA will be sooner than expected. Cheers

 

[blueshark]

Probably early next year,dear...But we never now. This calculation is only estimation based on the published CRS data by IRCC which is 5days old as well when published on the draw date. So,the influx of people who have score range of 451-600 is irregular. One day can be 241 and another day can be 300 and some day might be only 100. So, anything is possible here. The cut off score might be less than 460 in the very next draw or maybe not.

All I can say is that please don't lose hope. The cut off score will come down and you will get ITA in time. If you can increase your score in any way now,please do so if you can't wait until next year so that it can put your mind at ease knowing that your score is higher and your turn to get ITA will be sooner than expected. Cheers

@Dheana90 Thank you for your kind words .. I really appreciate your time and effort for the data analysis.

 

[Dheana90]

No point to calculate whatever score likelihood because IRCC is so unpredictable.
Better not set yourselves up for disappointment.
Instead, direct your energy fully into upping your score.

Some members in this Ray Of Hope thread feel much better seeing the CRS cut off calculation estimation though,dear...Even those people with 440s and below don't mind it and having rough idea of what the cut off might be can put their mind at ease lil bit just like @VKA said. I know the cut off score fiven in the calculation is not the exact points but atleast people will know that if the calculation is close enough to the real CRS pool data, the CRS estimations that me and other members is doing is the closest CRS cut off they can imagine.

We also have to remember that not all people can increase their CRS points. Some people have already reached their highest score and can't increase anymore. Some already have the highest points for degrees and IELTS and still they are only sitting at 460 due to age. So,the only thing they can do is wait. So,the calculation estimation is one of the thing that make them relax a little knowing where they stand and when can they expect to get ITA.

 

[Dheana90]

@Dheana90 Thank you for your kind words .. I really appreciate your time and effort for the data analysis.

No problem,dear

 

[cdddelhi]

@Dheana90 . My score is 461 birthday is approaching on 25 dec after that 456 till may 7 . After that game over. Do you think I have strong chances of getting ita

Thanks in advance

 

[Dr Seun]

Some members in this Ray Of Hope thread feel much better seeing the CRS cut off calculation estimation though,dear...Even those people with 440s and below don't mind it and having rough idea of what the cut off might be can put their mind at ease lil bit just like @VKA said. I know the cut off score fiven in the calculation is not the exact points but atleast people will know that if the calculation is close enough to the real CRS pool data, the CRS estimations that me and other members is doing is the closest CRS cut off they can imagine.

We also have to remember that not all people can increase their CRS points. Some people have already reached their highest score and can't increase anymore. Some already have the highest points for degrees and IELTS and still they are only sitting at 460 due to age. So,the only thing they can do is wait. So,the calculation estimation is one of the thing that make them relax a little knowing where they stand and when can they expect to get ITA.

Hero member, good work you doing. I think you should do an estimate for 13th November draw. I'm not optimistic about a draw this Wednesday, so I want to know possible estimates for the 13th