Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

[haider_Ali]

I8

@mona247 I still believe that 3 Draws will not happen. You are right there was one draw in Feb but there was a draw on 30 Jan 2019 and feb draw after 20 days. Feb is month of 28 Days remember that as well.

Regardless of how IRCC has behaved I still believe 3 draws is highly unlikely. Let me give an explanation and a little bit of positive hope to the PR aspirants. Apart from a bit of manipulations IRCC does have a target which they should if not meet get close to at least and under 3 draws scenario they will be way below that target. Below is my explanation why

Understanding ITA Target

Well, let me remind you everything that is being discussed in these ROH threads have to do with assumptions either positive or negative. So, according to my assumption the increased ITAs in 2017 and 2018 is not linked to rejection rate of 18% to 20% as widely believed but it is to neutralize the PNP Effect in pool. The reason for this is 81,400 Target widely quoted in 2019 ROH threads is not for Express Entry but for FEDERAL HIGH SKILLED as per Goverment of Canada (See below for source). Federal High Skilled as defined by government of Canada on the below link is classified as FSW, FST and CEC having a target of 81,400. There is no mention of PNP as part of Federal High Skilled which on same link can be seen as a different line. There is no EXPRESS ENTRY Quota or Target as widely assumed by some of our members.

So what is Express entry? It is system through which Federal High Skilled (FSW, FST and CEC) and Some PNP programs get processed and some pnps via paper based. Logic Check: if the Quota was for EE then instead of mentioning the program they would have mentioned EE and Paper Based PNPs. There is no mention of EE in the targets at all. Once you get nomination from a province you are no longer FSW, FST or CEC Candidate in the pool you are PNP Candidate and using separate PNP Quota.

(Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html)

Conclusion

So based on this assumption through some research and logically analyzing the available information. I strongly believe and hope that nominations at the end of this year would be around 95,000 to 97,000. Because although IRCC has issued around 71K ITAs till now Federal High Skilled Quota is lagging behind target. Although IRCC has final say we don't know how important it is for them to meet target, honestly we have no clue. Unless IRCC decides the Target are a joke 3 Draws might be possible but I highly doubt that it will happen.

This makes sense @ahsanshahbaz. But need some clarifuaction on ee and pnp. If we consider pnp separate from ee, total itas to issued in 2019 be 142400, which is unrealistic.
Someone please explain the details of this page pls.

 

[Aniruddha Pondhe]

Ontario's last major PNP draw was in August and they've met their quota for this year so there'll be no more.
BC has draws every month. But Saskatchewan has pretty big draws too and they also happen every month.

Is it possible Ontario might send out PNPs again next year? Also, on what basis are PNPs drawn? Is it random? Is there a way a candidate can increase his chances of getting selected in PNPs?

 

[Alen george]

Disclaimer: Everything written below is on AFAIK basis

I hope you didn't mean to ask what the letter meant and you have responded timely.

Furthermore, it seems that your application is about to be approved. Congratulations in advance!

Yeah I wanted to know if anyone received similar request from IRCC. Just months after AOR- so not sure if it’s application approved

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

@haider_Ali if you read my post carefully and bit a research of various PNP programs you would know there are Multiple PNP programs and the ones that get ITA in express entry are special ones designed for Express Entry Candidates. Other programs are apart from express entry and are applied to province a nomination from province is then sent to federal govt via paper based application. Not all PNPs are processed through express entry there are limited allocation for express entry candidates. So no it wont be 141K. PNP is a separate Category and each year a PNP quota is given to province and it is then up to the province which program they allocate how much Quota.12K to 15K from this PNP quota is being processed via express entry.

Edit: To further Clarify there are two systems or mechanisms used by IRCC to handle immigration programs one is Express Entry and the other is Paper Based (Outside of Express Entry). Now FSW, FST, CEC, PNP, family immigration, Atlantic Immigration pilot and soon to be announced MNP are considered programs. Now what gets processed via express entry is All of FSW, FST, CEC and some of PNP. Paper based handles most PNPs, family immigration, Atlantic Immigration Pilot etc.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

@ahsanshahbaz , like I said.. everyone including me is praying for 6 draws or 5 draws.

But 4 draws or 3 draws stand a realistic chance. Remember like how Jan had 3 draws and Feb had only one draw.. if you think that is justified, then the same way IRCC is capable of bunking one draw in December due to holidays and do 3 draws in Jan and again the same story repeats again.

I am not saying 100% December will have one draw, but we got to keep ourselves prepared for the worst.

Ok now you have also started one more discussion that's a totally different topic.. federal target vs pnp target versus overall target of 350000 people admitted as a PR.

Let's have a constructive discussion about that.. so you are saying pnp is not a part of federal target, great I will buy that, then can you please explain why does someone get 600 points and become a pnp applicant and come back into the federal pool and get ITA and eat into the federal annual targets???

4 draws has chance, 3 draws I would say you are being a bit pessimistic I don't blame you I also get that feeling at times. That being said, I never said PNPs are not part of federal target. Total Immigration Target is 330,800 for this year if you view the link I shared it would tell you the break down for this number. Out of this 330,800 81,400 is allocated to Federal High Skilled (FSW. FST and CEC). For PNP the allocation is 61,000 and then their is a quota for family, Alantic pilot and so on. Now this 61,000 PNP Target is distributed among provinces of canada based on Federal Governments discretion with Ontario, BC, SINP and Alberta getting a major chunk of this 61,000. Now every province has multiple sub program based on their needs. One of these programs is dedicated to Express Entry. All provinces know occupations that their province is interested in and searching for Express Entry pool is a way to nominate people with skills they need in their Labour force.

The point I am making is out of this 61K around 12K to 15K is processed via Express Entry System (It is just a way to select people not an immigration program) any PNP you see on a province website that does not have an express entry in its name is handled via paper based application which normally takes 1 to 2 years to get PR.

 

[badri.sri139]

Does anybody see any alarming trend this year or later next year where the CRS cutoff will not fall below 470ish? Is it possible?

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

Does anybody see any alarming trend this year or later next year where the CRS cutoff will not fall below 470ish? Is it possible?

A draw this week could easily get the score to 465-467 and hopefully by the end of this year scores could fall between 455-461. Scores will continue to fall in first 4 months of 2020. No need to be worried if you are in high 460s you will be through by the end of this month.

 

[mona247]

4 draws has chance, 3 draws I would say you are being a bit pessimistic I don't blame you I also get that feeling at times. That being said, I never said PNPs are not part of federal target. Total Immigration Target is 330,800 for this year if you view the link I shared it would tell you the break down for this number. Out of this 330,800 81,400 is allocated to Federal High Skilled (FSW. FST and CEC). For PNP the allocation is 61,000 and then their is a quota for family, Alantic pilot and so on. Now this 61,000 PNP Target is distributed among provinces of canada based on Federal Governments discretion with Ontario, BC, SINP and Alberta getting a major chunk of this 61,000. Now every province has multiple sub program based on their needs. One of these programs is dedicated to Express Entry. All provinces know occupations that their province is interested in and searching for Express Entry pool is a way to nominate people with skills they need in their Labour force.

The point I am making is out of this 61K around 12K to 15K is processed via Express Entry System (It is just a way to select people not an immigration program) any PNP you see on a province website that does not have an express entry in its name is handled via paper based application which normally takes 1 to 2 years to get PR.

You are 100% correct about the 330,800.

Also the 81,400 at the federal level is true. 61000 allocated for pnp ( paper based and express entry) put together is also true.

Also the 81400 is the PR target not the annual ITA target.. let's all not forget there is a lot of awareness via many global trackers since 2018 plus more threads on this forum too. The rejection rate from the second half of last year is decreasing at a very fast pace, thus this year the number of rejections are lower when compared to previous years, it's not a hard and fast rule that every year they will issue 20% more ITA when compared to the annual PR target!!!

 

[kelyjay]

@BADRI....i still think the crs score will keep increasing if ircc do not change the method they use..... The current surge on crs score we are experiencing is based on the lapses and weaknesses the ircc has failed to recognize.....do not be surprised that out of the 71,000 ita issued this year....probably 35000 will only get ppr..... The rest will get rejected and also some just got ita and declined it because the system is open for anybody anytime and anyday.... Which i feel it is the main thing killing the express entry..... If i ircc fails to:


1) Include Registration fee:
I have seen people rejecting ita,playing with the system, having multiple accounts and fake accounts, people gambling with the system when they do not have the documents required before entering the pool..some even fake eca numbers to enter the pool ...and all these accounts are been picked each time there is a draw..... If ircc can make it mandatory for every aspiring immigrants to pay a certain amount before registering then... All these issues of fake and multiple accounts will be eliminated...and people who wants to mess the system will have to think twice.....

2 Registration shouldn't be opened all times: i believe if adopt this method whereby they open the website for registration probably few days before the draw....

 

[navinball]

^^
That's actually a good idea, a registration fee of a 100$ will eliminate frivilous profiles. I don't like the idea of continually declining invites and blocking others.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

You are 100% correct about the 330,800.

Also the 81,400 at the federal level is true. 61000 allocated for pnp ( paper based and express entry) put together is also true.

However one fact is not true. Annually it's not possible all provinces put together select only 12k applicants for express entry stream?? In 2017 or 2018 that figure might be true but this year in 2019 noways..
OINP alone will cross 6k-8k under just the hcp express entry noi based selection.
We all know how many people Alberta has been fishing since March 2019.
And last but not the least, there is tusnami of applicants being fished out of the express entry pool by sinp in the last 2 months.

Even if all these NOI's don't get converted to a PR this year, including rejections etc, still the number of people coming into the federal express entry pool and grabbing the additional 600 points because of express entry linked pnp is way more than 12k this year.

Also the 81400 is the PR target not the annual ITA target.. let's all not forget there is a lot of awareness via many global trackers since 2018 plus more threads on this forum too. The rejection rate from the second half of last year is decreasing at a very fast pace, thus this year the number of rejections are lower when compared to previous years, it's not a hard and fast rule that every year they will issue 20% more ITA when compared to the annual PR target!!!

Warning: Sorry for a wall of text. I just felt I needed to be a lot more detailed in my response.

1. SINP/PNP Aggressively issuing nominations

So provinces have target for nominations not EOIs. They issue EOI throughout the year not all EOI get converted to nominations. Some get carry forwarded to next year. If you analyze the pool data for last two years there will always be candidates in 600-1200 score range. Let me give you a real life example. I am not a sales guy but I know sales people in my organization would be relaxed in meeting targets the entire year and when the last quarter of the year comes they go all active and aggressive in getting orders secured for next year as soon as it turns Jan 01, 2019 they get relaxed with routine orders coming throughout the year. Same with SINP or OINP. For all I care OINP can issue 9000 EOIs but their nominations for a given year is restricted to 6900 out of 61000 pnp quota. SINP will be very quiet next year with EOI trust me on that.

2. PNP Can be way more then 12K

12K number was just a range I did not total all previous draw data to get that number it was what I assumed 12-15K based on previous year excess invitations. Never said that it is hard and fast rule, it could be more or less this year. This data is with CIC. But one thing I can bet on is ITAs will exceed last years 89K record. last year they issued 14K in excess I am hopeful this year they will 16K in excess. Like all targets PNP targets and allocation for provinces will continue to increase till 2021 under current plan. No surprise here if the number is above 12K.

3. Rejections

In my opinion rejections ever since EE was introduced has been very minimum. EE is a very simple process in terms of documentation and most rejections on this forum are either due to careless attitude of applicants or stupid mistakes. Their frequency is not that high most candidates even get procedural fairness. Which is IRCC giving you last chance to satisfy them, even IRCC does not want to reject people. But this is again your and my assumption because I know IRCC does not release rejection numbers. Most professional people have serious attitude towards things and would be extra cautious with documentation so rejections will always be low.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

^^
That's actually a good idea, a registration fee of a 100$ will eliminate frivilous profiles. I don't like the idea of continually declining invites and blocking others.

Oh I definitely agree with you on this one. Put a fee of 500 dollars and you will see alot of window shoppers exploring Canada option in addition to Australia and US disappear as well or reduced as well

 

[indpnv]

Oh I definitely agree with you on this one. Put a fee of 500 dollars and you will see alot of window shoppers exploring Canada option in addition to Australia and US disappear as well or reduced as well

Window shopping US? Explain please!

 

[badri.sri139]

@BADRI....i still think the crs score will keep increasing if ircc do not change the method they use..... The current surge on crs score we are experiencing is based on the lapses and weaknesses the ircc has failed to recognize.....do not be surprised that out of the 71,000 ita issued this year....probably 35000 will only get ppr..... The rest will get rejected and also some just got ita and declined it because the system is open for anybody anytime and anyday.... Which i feel it is the main thing killing the express entry..... If i ircc fails to:


1) Include Registration fee:
I have seen people rejecting ita,playing with the system, having multiple accounts and fake accounts, people gambling with the system when they do not have the documents required before entering the pool..some even fake eca numbers to enter the pool ...and all these accounts are been picked each time there is a draw..... If ircc can make it mandatory for every aspiring immigrants to pay a certain amount before registering then... All these issues of fake and multiple accounts will be eliminated...and people who wants to mess the system will have to think twice.....

2 Registration shouldn't be opened all times: i believe if adopt this method whereby they open the website for registration probably few days before the draw....

Yes I agree, hopefully IRCC issues more ITAs taking in account the possible rejections.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

Window shopping US? Explain please!

Window shoppers are those for whom plan B is Canada.

"Get a profile in if H1B gets rejected gotta have plan."

There are some that say lets apply for both canada and australia. A little search and you will find people with topics on these forums "we got PR from aussie and canada and now we are trying to decide where to go."