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Ray of Hope - 126th Draw

imusi

Star Member
Jun 3, 2019
193
131
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15-01-2020
I guess I have a balanced view on both sides.

I’ve been following ROH from 119 to 125 and now 126. I appreciate all the support and positive vibes I got and/or observed from ROH people, and I also appreciate those so-called ‘negativity spreaders’ who are, in fact, also necessary and important contributors in this forum.

Neither of the two sides are 100% right or wrong all the time. Gaining information and balanced perspectives from both sides is exactly what I need and find helpful. When I was struggling with IELTS or became extremely anxious because of a sudden increase in cut-off, I do need the comfort and ‘good luck’ ‘don’t worry’ ‘ITAs will increase in the coming draws’ blessings as my emotional support. However once I get through the hard feelings, I must start to consider what if the worst scenario happens and what I can do to maximize my chances.

I don’t really believe in luck but rather my own efforts will take me to my desired destinations. I find navinball’s & facethereality’s postings sometimes informative and critical therefore I appreciate their contribution in this thread as much as other solid contributors. However every time when the keyboard fight starts, both sides might get emotional and become purely sarcastic towards each other and that is, to be frankly, the real ‘buzz killer’ and the most useless and annoying thing I’ve seen in ROH threads. (And yes when I ‘liked’ or in supportive of some of their postings I do worry if I will be labeled as ‘one of them’ simply by doing so and I don’t feel right about this either. Sometimes I feel it is kind of ‘political correctness’ in ROH threads to oppose them. )

I agree people should hold hope and support each other here in ROH, and I also agree that people need to face the reality, give up faked hope, and fight for themselves in the competition of EE. When good things happen such as unexpected B2B draw, increased draw size, PNP NOI, or sudden drop in cut-off, we should all celebrate in ROH for people who finally make it through to their chances; but we MUST NOT COUNT ON these external factors and do prepare for the worst scenarios.

When I see a person saying “I’m losing hope at 440” I expect replies are like “hang in there buddy and let’s see if there’s any thing you can do to improve your score” but not only “you’ll be good, don’t give up” (no use) or simple “no faked hope for you, stop dreaming” (no use as well). Positive vibes are good and make us feel better but might not be helpful; curing medicine most likely bitters but not all things that bitter are curing medicines.
 
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robin6869

Hero Member
Jul 31, 2017
278
252
Considering no hiccups,
460±1 on 18 September at 3600 ITAs
459+2-1 at 3900 ITAs.
hope for the best


by the way this is posted on CIC NEWS

Canada’s immigrant intake is poised to remain above 300,000 per year irrespective of the election result. Since the late 1980s, when the Conservatives decided to double immigration levels to above 200,000 newcomers annually, both parties have used their time in power to continue the policy of increasing levels. This is due to the bipartisan consensus that high levels of immigration are needed to alleviate the economic and fiscal strain caused by Canada’s ageing population and low birth rate.

When they last governed between 2006 and 2015, the Conservatives steadily increased immigration levels to about 260,000 newcomers per year—compared with the roughly 225,000 newcomers welcomed by the Liberals per year between 1996 and 2005.

The major difference today, however, is that Canada’s retirement rate is accelerating due to the over 9 million baby boomers set to reach the age of retirement (65 years old) within the next decade. This means the need to sustain high levels of immigration is even more important to Canada’s economy than it was in the past.
 

Captain789

Hero Member
May 27, 2018
439
127
I dunno, I have decided to submit my documents to the OINP, just in case. Anyway, there is no guarantee that I will be nominated. Just saying.

Last draw with 463 points was above my most negative predictions. 461 - sure, but 463....

If you are in the EE age zone, then sure, you have plenty of time...
 
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Not_Your_Donkey_Kong

Hero Member
Apr 19, 2019
321
331
30
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Hard to give a prediction after a sudden rise from 457 to 463 (ITA 3600 and 15 days draw)

But I can tell you more 600+ (Nominated people) will join the pool continuously and a huge competition effect is happening now.

For example, when the CRS was between 430-450, most people felt relax/lazy and they were happy with their lower score. In fact, they didn't need to do so much for 430-450.

However the CRS is between 450-470 now, most people will definitely retake IELTS multiple times, work an extra year or get a 2nd degree/LMIA, accept NOI to achieve a higher score. Therefore, it will only push the average higher and higher.

when you followed the ROH internal tracker, you always hear people said "update me from 452 to 465 etc"
For once, I do agree with you.
The bar is going to get higher and higher each year. More and more people are entering the pool each day, particularly those on work visas in the U.S. This is bound to take CRS to a higher level.

Even if we account for an increased annual target, it won't be wrong to assume that in 2020, CRS may never drop below 455. The second half of 2020 may not see scores below 460.

However, I do believe that CRS will take a dip to 452-453 at least once before it breaks the ceiling again.
 
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imusi

Star Member
Jun 3, 2019
193
131
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15-01-2020
For once, I do agree with you.
The bar is going to get higher and higher each year. More and more people are entering the pool each day, particularly those on work visas in the U.S. This is bound to take CRS to a higher level.

Even if we account for an increased annual target, it won't be wrong to assume that in 2020, CRS may never drop below 455. The second half of 2020 may not see scores below 460.

However, I do believe that CRS will take a dip to 452-453 at least once before it breaks the ceiling again.
Yes there is always a chance for sudden drop in CRS, possibly because of b2b draw etc. but we cannot count on such ‘chances’.

For people who are not in the pool yet and not confident to get a safe CRS (such as higher 460s this year), get in the pool ASAP and you might just catch the last bus.

For people who are in the pool but not in the safe CRS zone yet, get as high CRS as you can, and keep an eye on PNP possibilities.

For people who really have made it to the best score as they can (CLB10, education, work experience etc.) but still cannot make it to the current safe zone, don’t lose hope and keep fighting on. When there is a surprise such as a b2b draw, I sincerely wish you to be the lucky ones.
 
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Not_Your_Donkey_Kong

Hero Member
Apr 19, 2019
321
331
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Category........
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Yes there is always a chance for sudden drop in CRS, possibly because of b2b draw etc. but we cannot count on such ‘chances’.

For people who are not in the pool yet and not confident to get a safe CRS (such as higher 460s this year), get in the pool ASAP and you might just catch the last bus.

For people who are in the pool but not in the safe CRS zone yet, get as high CRS as you can, and keep an eye on PNP possibilities.

For people who really have made it to the best score as they can (CLB10, education, work experience etc.) but still cannot make it to the current safe zone, don’t lose hope and keep fighting on. When there is a surprise such as a b2b draw, I sincerely wish you to be the lucky ones.
Exactly. Luck will only help those who are well prepared.
 
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imusi

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Jun 3, 2019
193
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15-01-2020
I can only think B2B draw will help to dip the score but I don't see the reason they "have to" conduct a b2b draw in remaining time.

I do believe CIC will increase ITA to 3750 or 3900max but I don't see lot of help of it

Election Campaign is starting now and many possibilities
The chances of negative impact (if any) happening in this year is rather low as I believe there will be a delay in such political influences. However for myself I did prepare for the worst scenario and even considered changing my profile to spouse not accompanying if there is a sign that the cut off will be increasing to 470+... I guess that won’t happen in this year too... but always good to have a plan B right...
 

Captain789

Hero Member
May 27, 2018
439
127
Well, I know I might sound crazy, but since this is almost like gambling, I spoke to an astrologist too haha. (this is a self sarcasm), but she is usually right and she said that it might be in 456 zone by January. However, take this prediction with the skepticism and please don't laugh because all tools can be useful.
 
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imusi

Star Member
Jun 3, 2019
193
131
Passport Req..
15-01-2020
Well, I know I might sound crazy, but since this is almost like gambling, I spoke to an astrologist too haha. (this is a self sarcasm), but she is usually right and she said that it might be in 456 zone by January. However, take this prediction with the skepticism and please don't laugh because all tools can be useful.
456 in Jan sounds reasonable to me ;) and quite achievable CRS for many people here.
 

amrishm

Newbie
Jan 15, 2019
8
0
Hi all
I'm 33 and will be 34 in November and I currently sit on a score of 455. I've maxed out on ielts and the same as my wife. I got a BSc and a CPA which gave me the two or more degrees. my wife has a degree and is same age. I know its unlikely getting that ITA given i'll lose 5 points soon but some members talk about applying for pnp actively. I understand it as indicating interest in living in other provinces and hoping they select you. Is my approach wrong with the pnp?
How do I capitalize on the pnp? Hoping anyone could assist.
 

imusi

Star Member
Jun 3, 2019
193
131
Passport Req..
15-01-2020
I know, but unfortunately not to me :( My birthday is in January... Learning French for B1 level takes time, so I am taking all the chances.
Are you currently at 456? Any possibilities for PNP? Maxed at CLB10? really hard to predict cut off now... Let’s see the trend in the next a couple of draws. Finger crossed!
 

imusi

Star Member
Jun 3, 2019
193
131
Passport Req..
15-01-2020
Hi all
I'm 33 and will be 34 in November and I currently sit on a score of 455. I've maxed out on ielts and the same as my wife. I got a BSc and a CPA which gave me the two or more degrees. my wife has a degree and is same age. I know its unlikely getting that ITA given i'll lose 5 points soon but some members talk about applying for pnp actively. I understand it as indicating interest in living in other provinces and hoping they select you. Is my approach wrong with the pnp?
How do I capitalize on the pnp? Hoping anyone could assist.
Do some research and see if your NOC is on the list of any PNP programs. Not all PNP are invited through EE pool and some may ask you to apply through their own websites or other channels. Some PNP programs will give you a score and rank you in their pools just like EE. You can find almost all the necessary information on their official websites.
 

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
Hard to give a prediction after a sudden rise from 457 to 463 (ITA 3600 and 15 days draw)

But I can tell you more 600+ (Nominated people) will join the pool continuously and a huge competition effect is happening now.

For example, when the CRS was between 430-450, most people felt relax/lazy and they were happy with their lower score. In fact, they didn't need to do so much for 430-450.

However the CRS is between 450-470 now, most people will definitely retake IELTS multiple times, work an extra year or get a 2nd degree/LMIA, accept NOI to achieve a higher score. Therefore, it will only push the average higher and higher.

when you followed the ROH internal tracker, you always hear people said "update me from 452 to 465 etc"
Very true!
Hard to predict, below is my rough try:
That one day delay caused addition of approx 185 candidates of 463+ score

On a single position, let’s say at 462, 7 candidates gets added per day.
So on 462, after 14 days there were 98 candidates
As the tiebreaker is 23rd aug , so 12x 7= 84 were left on 463 after draw

If it was a 14 day gap, all remaining 463 + all 462 (84+98) would have gotten cleared from the quota of 185 and CRS would have been 461.

So if next draw happens after 14 days, and pnp remains same as were in last draw then next CRS should be 461 +- 1

However change in no of pnp approval can swing the CRS in any direction
 
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