Ray of Hope - 126th Draw

[ntheegel]

Buddy, the points you are claiming for in your EE profile, you need to prove them after getting ITA. Now after receiving ITA, Ofcourse the nomination is there, as per your earlier statement, I believe you have 6yrs of continuous employment. As you've mentioned 8yrs of employment, you can describe it in the personal history as well as with a letter of LOE, your case is justified. There is no misrepresentation as you have worked for 6yrs continuous and 2yrs of part time.

Lemme share my friends experience. While creating his EE profile, he mentioned 30k CAD he'll be carrying. After getting NOI, the POF he gave to OINP was for 27k CAD. Upon receiving the nomination and later the ITA, he presented a POF for 25.5k CAD. Now if you see, there are misrepresentation at every step and POF is a very important part of this immigration system.

The analysis were, that CIC requires the funds which they have prescribed. Anything less than their benchmark figure, follows with a rejection.

He had 12 yrs of work experience, which was mentioned in the EE but he showed 8yrs and 6months of continuous and rest as part time. He knew that he will get points for max 6yrs. But the point is, after getting ITA, there shouldn't be any misrepresentation.

EE profile always asks for foreign work experience with Max choice as 3yrs and above. It does not have the choices for 5yrs/8yrs or 10yrs and above. Henceforth, when you get the NOI, the details are asked for.

Think before taking any step or speak to an immigration lawyer rather than a consultant.

Approached an Immigration attorney and provided him with all the documents required per checklist. They reviewed it and provided false information to withdraw my profile and suggested they would create a new one and have it process through them else told me that it would lead to misrepresentation. They were trying to make money out of me and screwed up my chance. I came to know about converting part time after posting in this forum.So now left with two options - either wait until score gets reduced to 451 this year or with 445 next year or rely on PNP Next Year.

So for PNP re invite do I have to drop and recreate a new Express Entry Profile?If I do this will loose my Tie Breaking date.

I missed it bro.If I would have posted this question to you I would have taken up PNP. Thanks a lot for your clarification.

 

[vsfedotov]

Just asked this question in a different thread, but will share it here as well.
I declared 32K CAD for EE, as it was my current account balance. It's well above the requirement for 4 people. However, my average balance for the last 6 months is lower (but still above the requirement), since I started my new job only in July.

Can this be a reason for denial, or I'm good as long as the average balance is above the minimum requirement?

 

[Angel1113]

Any chances of draw on September 11th?

Highly unlikely.

 

[Angel1113]

Yes. Strongly agree.




If I have to do my calculation again for 4th Sept CRS cut off estimation with the method I use now and without the information of 30th August CRs distribution in the pool, we can see that there was a huge number of candidates who were sitting at 450+ improved their score to 460+.

That can be seen in the comparison of CRS score distribution pool on 15th Aug and 30th Aug in 441-450 score range where there were not many candidates. The 451-458 range were decreasing fast and moved up to 461+ range as seen after 12th August draw pool distribution (7,355) compare to 15th Aug CRS pool (7,038). 7,038-7,366 = -317. Some of those who were taken off the range 451-600 might be those who received PNP nominations and improvement in IELTS score as well as work experience. Some might have decrease in score because of age factor,too.


After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 466, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-994=2,606)
451-600 = 7,355 (9,961- 2,606)
441-450 =8,021


August 15, 2019 CRS score range
601-1,200 =127
451-600 =7,038
441-450 =8,084


It means, in 3 days from 12th Aug to 15th Aug, there were:
601-1,200 = 42profile/day (127/3)
451-600 = -106prof/day(7,038-7,355=-317/3)
441-450 =21prof/day (8,084-8,021=63/3)

As it os impossible to have minus figure in the range of 451-600, I will use previous 314 profile/day instead to calculate the profile added after 15 Aug to 20 Aug

So, by 20th August, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 =337 (127+210(42x5days)
451-600 =8,608(7,038+1,570(314x5days))
441-450 = 8,189(8,084+ 105(21x5days))


After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189


Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.


So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 630 (42x 15days)
451-600 =10,055(5,345+4,710(314x15days))
441-450= 8,399(8,084+315(21x15days))


Suppose that from 4710 newly added profile from 20th August to 4th Sep, it will be distributed equally through 451-484 to 600 ( our own CRS internal tracker manage by
@Angel1113 listed someone who have score of 484 in the range of 451-600) so I will use that as a highest in the range of 451-600. Therefore, it makes 4710/34=138 profile per score.


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 463-464
3,600 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-138 (of 138 of 484-600score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 483score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 482score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 481score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 480score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 479score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 478score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 477score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 476score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 475score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 474score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 473score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 472score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 471score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 470score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 469score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 468score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 467score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 466score newly added)
-138 (of 138 of 465score newly added)
-138(of 138 of 464score newly added)
-72(of 138 of 463score newly added)

As you can see, out of 4,710 newly added profiles more than 3,000 profiles are having 461+ score. Together with the high PNP nominations (630) approved before the draw, with only 3,600 ITAs issued, it made sense that the cut off score went up again.

Wow great work @Dheana90
A++ for the effort.

 

[Angel1113]

I know this, what I’m asking is if an expired IELTS will make the system kick us out of the pool automatically (before ITA) due to ineligibility?

Yes if the main applicant's IELTS expires then you will no longer meet the minimum eligibility for express entry. Therefore your profile will be deactivated.

 

[MQ12]

Hey there people, I have a quick query, so I am a single applicant and I have about 13k in my account as of today, the thing is with the currency fluctuations, should I be worried about balance of funds, after paying the fee and all. I keep monitoring the bank of Canada website for exchange rates coz someone said that’s what CIC uses for translating total balance in CAD. Is it true that the funds are essentially measured according to the exchange rate of the day of eAPR. Any advice.

 

[navinball]

Hey there people, I have a quick query, so I am a single applicant and I have about 13k in my account as of today, the thing is with the currency fluctuations, should I be worried about balance of funds, after paying the fee and all. I keep monitoring the bank of Canada website for exchange rates coz someone said that’s what CIC uses for translating total balance in CAD. Is it true that the funds are essentially measured according to the exchange rate of the day of eAPR. Any advice.

no. currency conversion is done when the agent does the eligibility check. not on eAPR.

 

[MQ12]

no. currency conversion is done when the program assistant does the completeness check. not on eAPR.

And when is that exactly. As in what stage of the application. The reason I am asking is p, well after paying the fee the balance will be below the minimum requirement, would they then ask for fresh documents or just reject the application on basis of simple math.

 

[navinball]

And when is that exactly. As in what stage of the application. The reason I am asking is p, well after paying the fee the balance will be below the minimum requirement, would they then ask for fresh documents or just reject the application on basis of simple math.

sorry i edited, its when they do eligibility which is probably 2-3 months after eAPR. they will send a procedural fairness letter (step before rejection) if the funds fall short and ask for updated bank statements.

 

[jp3189n]

Yes if the main applicant's IELTS expires then you will no longer meet the minimum eligibility for express entry. Therefore your profile will be deactivated.

Thank you. In this case is not from the main applicant but from my spouse/dependent. Would it be the same?

 

[Angel1113]

Thank you. In this case is not from the main applicant but from my spouse/dependent. Would it be the same?

No in that case your score will drop if the spouse is accompanying but your profile will remain in the pool.

 

[Sharath957]

Stuck at 451 is there any chance this year to scores drop to 451

 

[Mama mia]

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of August 30, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 =395
451-600 =6,826
441-450 =8,381

It means in 10 days from Aug 20 to Aug 30, there where:
601-1,200 = 40 profile/day (395/10days)

451-600 = 148 prof/day (6,826-5345 = 1,481/10days)

441-450 = 19prof/day(8,381-8,189= 192/10days)


So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 595(395+ 200(40x 5days)
451-600 =7,566(6,826+740(148x5days))
441-450= 8,476(8,381+95(19x5days))

After 4th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 463, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -595)
451-600 =4,561(7,566-3005)
441-450= 8,476

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 4,561 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only. Let's assume that 4,561 are distributed equally to 451-463 score range. Thus, it makes 4,561/12= 380 profile per score.

By 18th September, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200 = 560 (40x 14days)
451-600 =6,623 (4,561+2,072(148x14days))
441-450= 8,742 (8,476+266(19x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,072 profile from 4th Sep -18th Sep, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 471 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,072/20=104profile/score.


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 459-460
3,600 minus:
-560(601-1200)
-104 (of 104 471-600 score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 470score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 469score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 468score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 467score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 466score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 465score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 464score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 463score newly added)
-380 (of 463score left on 4th Sep draw)
-380 (of 462score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 462score newly added)
-380 (of 461score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 461score newly added)
-380 (of 460score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 460score newly added)
-272(of 380 in 459score left on 4th Sep)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 458-459.
3,900 minus:
-560(601-1200)
-104 (of 104 471-600 score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 470score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 469score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 468score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 467score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 466score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 465score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 464score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 463score newly added)
-380 (of 463score left on 4th Sep draw)
-380 (of 462score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 462score newly added)
-380 (of 461score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104(of 104 of 461score newly added)
-380(of 460score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104(of 104 of 460score newly added)
-380(of 380 in 459score left on 4th Sep)
-104 (of 104 of 459score newly added)
-88(of 380 in 458score left on 4th Sep)

Big thumbs up. I always look forward to your calculation in every ROH thread.

 

[TD0911]

Big thumbs up. I always look forward to your calculation in every ROH thread.

Any hope for CRS 454? I was 459 and September 4th draw was my last hope as my score is going to drop by 5 points by next week as my birthday is approaching.

All hopes shattered! :’(

 

[Vaibhav_1989]

Hi! Got my ITA on 04 SEP. I am single (not married). No one is coming with me to CANADA. IS it mandatory to go through the medi examination for my family members (i.e.father, mother & sister), while none of them is accompanying me to CANADA.