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Ray of Hope - 124th Draw

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
Next draw can happen on 21st or 28th both, below are the supporting points

In favour of 21st Aug:
1. In 12th Aug draw, data shown up to 2nd Aug, means there was a plan to conduct draw on 7th Aug and then on 21st Aug, but 7th Aug draw got delayed

2. Cic could have easily conducted draw on 28th by conducting last draw on 14th, why was there a need to have draw on Monday

3. If we consider last draw as a delayed draw of 7th Aug , then next is on 21st

4. If we consider last draw as an advanced draw of 14th Aug then it is a 3 week gap likely to be followed by b2b draw

5. There are below events approaching:
FST draw in Sep
Elections in Oct

If cic has a margin for a 3 week gap then it would be better to save it for above mentioned 2 events rather than wasting it in Aug

In favour of 28th Aug:
1. Cic has an habit to create a gap after 4-5 regular draws,
Apart from this habit, Don’t see any logic, this would be an unnecessary gap without achieving FST or handling election busy schedule
I guess I was almost correct:)
 

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
As u asked for rough idea, so here it is with minimum calculation:

As most of the 466 are cleared so I consider CRS as 465 which means in 19 days 3600 candidates having score > 465 were added

So if a draw happens after 9 days then how many 465+ would be added in 9 days as compared to 19 days= 3600/2 =1800

So remaining 1800 of ITA will be issued to candidates on 465 or below

Rough idea says 7 Candidates per positions per day get added.
So on each position from 460-465 there may be 7 x 28 = 196 candidates

So in bandwidth of 1800 how many positions will be cleared = 1800/196 = 9.18

Now 466-9 should not mean 457 because accumulation on 459 and below is much higher than 196

But I believe CRS should be around 459 if:
1. Draw happens on 21st Aug
2. New 600+ candidates added in 9 days should not be more than 500 ( as in 19 days they were 1000 approx)
I guess I was correct here also:)
Congrats to all, yahoooooo