Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[a16107]

The score is getting higher , more people with greater scores (god knows where from the score come) are applying , seems the future is going to be easily predictable but 1 thing which we can do is to wait patiently (tough , though) together with seeking other ways to increase score.

Actually we can see where the people come from

we have almost 7 billion people around the world and CIC only issue 80000-90000 ITA each year

just look at the population of India, China, USA or UK~ even 0.1% of the qualify applicants can flood the pool already

 

[kevwe91]

I don't mind, you can escape the reality and having a good dream lying on Rockies Mountain. When you wake up, you are still in your beloved country.

I know you know the point will only going up or keeping in a higher level (455+) ~ I didn't say you can't get sympathy from other people but I just want to state the fact in the group.

Look at earlier this year from 438 to 457 and it took how many draws to go as low as 450? It jumps back to 470 now and guess how many draws to go down to 460 this time? don't forget there is a backlog between 450-460, more PNP issued, inland applicants jump in higher range, USA people coming cuz new policy from Trump and election in October! Every factors don't favourite the lower CRS

I know you block me and can't see my post, i will see you in your dream and every ROH to see how you spread your false hope to everyone~

I understand how frustrating this process can be, with the fact that a lot of people had their expectations dashed due to the sudden spike from 450 to 470. If you look at the crs distribution from the beginning of the year, there is an explanation for this:

1. 28 days wait (which was a period where the federal skilled trades candidates were selected, along with the 500th ranked candidates in the pool, who by the way are people who were nominated by a province or are applying through the Canadian experience class). As a result of this, there were still a lot candidates in the pool who had scores of about 470 or more.

2. CIC picks the 3350th ranked person in the pool as a rule of thumb. Due to the long wait of 28 days, a lot of candidates with scores of 470+ were admitted into the pool and coincidentally, the 3350th person had a score of 470

3. Looking at the trend of the round of invitations since 2016, there was usually a spike in the crs score by a factor of +15 or more when there was a 28days wait in the rounds of invitations.

Hopefully, if the rounds of invitations can be maintained at the normal interval of 14 days for the next 2 - 3 months, we should see the scores dropping down to 450 or even lower, but then again that might not be the case, if a lot of people entering the pool have CRS scores of 460 or more.

 

[SlyDigits]

Hi Everyone, my first post here after we created our EE profile in May.

Lots of posts were about trying to anticipate what the draw will be and a lot of people wondering why it was so high and whether it will come down or not.

So I looked into the whole draw format and the total number of profiles (as released on their Rounds of Invitation page) and here is what I feel is happening:

1. Since 2018, there has been a move towards standardizing the number of profiles they are picking in each draw. It was 3750 and 3900 for most part of last year, and this year it is 3350. Across 24-draws (every 14-days), approximately 80,500 profiles will be picked based on 3350 draws each fortnight.
2. There were two FST draws last year - in May and in September - and they obviously skew the total number of profiles picked. Will they compensate by picking more profiles in the subsequent draws - depends entirely on how many successful PRs their existing cases convert to
3. Here's the Ray of Hope: As per the total number of profiles in the 451+ category, approximately 140 - 150 profiles are being added each day to the pool. That means, approximately 1900 to 2100 new profiles are entering the pool before each draw. However, 3350 are being removed from the top in each draw - so from the top, approximately 1250 more profiles are being removed from the existing pool
   1. In the data released on the 24th, 5350+ profiles were in the 451+ category, of which 3350 received an ITA - now, 2000 profiles of 451+ are remaining
   2. By June 6th (assuming profile creation rate remains at 140 to 150), another 2100 profiles will be added, taking the total 451+ profiles to 4100
   3. Out of those, 3350 will probably be picked again, leaving only 750 profiles above 451+ in the pool.
   4. By June 20th, another 2100 will be added to the pool (451+ total will be approximately 2900) and 3350 will be removed, which means that draw may drop to or below 450.

So I believe, here's the thing that everyone needs to focus on: more profiles are being sent ITAs than are being added to the pool every 14-days.

How many more ITAs are being issued? So far, the trend is 3350. Will they reduce it in the future? Depends on whether they are looking for only 451+ profiles but I don't believe they are. Why I don't believe so is because these 401-450, 451-600 and 601+ categories are only being created for statistical purposes and they don't have a real impact on the draw - which is only picking the top 3350 people irrespective of their CRS scores.

Here are some of the assumptions I have made:

1. The number of 451+ profiles being added each day are 140 to 150. This can be more or less depending on many factors, including US political climate, college graduations, etc.
2. The number of ITAs issued in each draw is 3350. This can change very easily (more or less)

The one thing everyone has to look forward to is that at every draw, approximately 1200 more profiles are being removed from the pool than those being added to it. Which means that as long as the trend of "more profiles being removed than added" remains true, the draw will keep dropping its CRS score.

I would recommend keeping an eye on the total profiles in the pool more than anything else. The moment the 451+ profiles comes below 2000 (following a draw), the cut-off will become more favourable for those below 451. That said, how low it will go is completely ambiguous as there are over 36,000 profiles in the 400 to 450 scores, so your guess is as good as mine.

 

[TADF chemist]

I understand how frustrating this process can be, with the fact that a lot of people had their expectations dashed due to the sudden spike from 450 to 470. If you look at the crs distribution from the beginning of the year, there is an explanation for this:

1. 28 days wait (which was a period where the federal skilled trades candidates were selected, along with the 500th ranked candidates in the pool, who by the way are people who were nominated by a province or are applying through the Canadian experience class). As a result of this, there were still a lot candidates in the pool who had scores of about 470 or more.

2. CIC picks the 3350th ranked person in the pool as a rule of thumb. Due to the long wait of 28 days, a lot of candidates with scores of 470+ were admitted into the pool and coincidentally, the 3350th person had a score of 470

3. Looking at the trend of the round of invitations since 2016, there was usually a spike in the crs score by a factor of +15 or more when there was a 28days wait in the rounds of invitations.

Hopefully, if the rounds of invitations can be maintained at the normal interval of 14 days for the next 2 - 3 months, we should see the scores dropping down to 450 or even lower, but then again that might not be the case, if a lot of people entering the pool have CRS scores of 460 or more.

This is exactly what I meant in my previous post to explain the sudden spike. The Express Entry pool thing is dynamic, meaning people coming in and issuing ITA to remove these people at the same time. The rates of these two opposing process determines the cutoff score.

 

[Ilyushin76]

@NikSharma01 @Shishir Chandra Kumar @IeltsDream2019 @skg1988 @prsingh @ripul and others - Here we go, Let’s start with him and block this guy. Go to his profile and click on ignore button so that we can’t see his negativity!

Count me in !

 

[Ilyushin76]

:'( :'(

Welcome aboard though .

 

[Jabya]

Hi Everyone, my first post here after we created our EE profile in May.

Lots of posts were about trying to anticipate what the draw will be and a lot of people wondering why it was so high and whether it will come down or not.

So I looked into the whole draw format and the total number of profiles (as released on their Rounds of Invitation page) and here is what I feel is happening:

1. Since 2018, there has been a move towards standardizing the number of profiles they are picking in each draw. It was 3750 and 3900 for most part of last year, and this year it is 3350. Across 24-draws (every 14-days), approximately 80,500 profiles will be picked based on 3350 draws each fortnight.
2. There were two FST draws last year - in May and in September - and they obviously skew the total number of profiles picked. Will they compensate by picking more profiles in the subsequent draws - depends entirely on how many successful PRs their existing cases convert to
3. Here's the Ray of Hope: As per the total number of profiles in the 451+ category, approximately 140 - 150 profiles are being added each day to the pool. That means, approximately 1900 to 2100 new profiles are entering the pool before each draw. However, 3350 are being removed from the top in each draw - so from the top, approximately 1250 more profiles are being removed from the existing pool
   1. In the data released on the 24th, 5350+ profiles were in the 451+ category, of which 3350 received an ITA - now, 2000 profiles of 451+ are remaining
   2. By June 6th (assuming profile creation rate remains at 140 to 150), another 2100 profiles will be added, taking the total 451+ profiles to 4100
   3. Out of those, 3350 will probably be picked again, leaving only 750 profiles above 451+ in the pool.
   4. By June 20th, another 2100 will be added to the pool (451+ total will be approximately 2900) and 3350 will be removed, which means that draw may drop to or below 450.

So I believe, here's the thing that everyone needs to focus on: more profiles are being sent ITAs than are being added to the pool every 14-days.

How many more ITAs are being issued? So far, the trend is 3350. Will they reduce it in the future? Depends on whether they are looking for only 451+ profiles but I don't believe they are. Why I don't believe so is because these 401-450, 451-600 and 601+ categories are only being created for statistical purposes and they don't have a real impact on the draw - which is only picking the top 3350 people irrespective of their CRS scores.

Here are some of the assumptions I have made:

1. The number of 451+ profiles being added each day are 140 to 150. This can be more or less depending on many factors, including US political climate, college graduations, etc.
2. The number of ITAs issued in each draw is 3350. This can change very easily (more or less)

The one thing everyone has to look forward to is that at every draw, approximately 1200 more profiles are being removed from the pool than those being added to it. Which means that as long as the trend of "more profiles being removed than added" remains true, the draw will keep dropping its CRS score.

I would recommend keeping an eye on the total profiles in the pool more than anything else. The moment the 451+ profiles comes below 2000 (following a draw), the cut-off will become more favourable for those below 451. That said, how low it will go is completely ambiguous as there are over 36,000 profiles in the 400 to 450 scores, so your guess is as good as mine.

This is excellent read!!

 

[kevwe91]

Welcome aboard though .

Thanks a lot. But if I may ask, why now? been in this forum for over 2 days now

 

[Eddiesol]

Hi Everyone, my first post here after we created our EE profile in May.

Lots of posts were about trying to anticipate what the draw will be and a lot of people wondering why it was so high and whether it will come down or not.

So I looked into the whole draw format and the total number of profiles (as released on their Rounds of Invitation page) and here is what I feel is happening:

1. Since 2018, there has been a move towards standardizing the number of profiles they are picking in each draw. It was 3750 and 3900 for most part of last year, and this year it is 3350. Across 24-draws (every 14-days), approximately 80,500 profiles will be picked based on 3350 draws each fortnight.
2. There were two FST draws last year - in May and in September - and they obviously skew the total number of profiles picked. Will they compensate by picking more profiles in the subsequent draws - depends entirely on how many successful PRs their existing cases convert to
3. Here's the Ray of Hope: As per the total number of profiles in the 451+ category, approximately 140 - 150 profiles are being added each day to the pool. That means, approximately 1900 to 2100 new profiles are entering the pool before each draw. However, 3350 are being removed from the top in each draw - so from the top, approximately 1250 more profiles are being removed from the existing pool
   1. In the data released on the 24th, 5350+ profiles were in the 451+ category, of which 3350 received an ITA - now, 2000 profiles of 451+ are remaining
   2. By June 6th (assuming profile creation rate remains at 140 to 150), another 2100 profiles will be added, taking the total 451+ profiles to 4100
   3. Out of those, 3350 will probably be picked again, leaving only 750 profiles above 451+ in the pool.
   4. By June 20th, another 2100 will be added to the pool (451+ total will be approximately 2900) and 3350 will be removed, which means that draw may drop to or below 450.

So I believe, here's the thing that everyone needs to focus on: more profiles are being sent ITAs than are being added to the pool every 14-days.

How many more ITAs are being issued? So far, the trend is 3350. Will they reduce it in the future? Depends on whether they are looking for only 451+ profiles but I don't believe they are. Why I don't believe so is because these 401-450, 451-600 and 601+ categories are only being created for statistical purposes and they don't have a real impact on the draw - which is only picking the top 3350 people irrespective of their CRS scores.

Here are some of the assumptions I have made:

1. The number of 451+ profiles being added each day are 140 to 150. This can be more or less depending on many factors, including US political climate, college graduations, etc.
2. The number of ITAs issued in each draw is 3350. This can change very easily (more or less)

The one thing everyone has to look forward to is that at every draw, approximately 1200 more profiles are being removed from the pool than those being added to it. Which means that as long as the trend of "more profiles being removed than added" remains true, the draw will keep dropping its CRS score.

I would recommend keeping an eye on the total profiles in the pool more than anything else. The moment the 451+ profiles comes below 2000 (following a draw), the cut-off will become more favourable for those below 451. That said, how low it will go is completely ambiguous as there are over 36,000 profiles in the 400 to 450 scores, so your guess is as good as mine.

Your numbers are all wrong
On the 24th of may we have 5353 above 450 these were all added after may 1st
Meaning we have a daily increase of 223
I may 29th we have 6468 550+ in the pool after the draw we still have 3118 between 450 and 470
With an increase of 3122 every 14 days
Meaning only half the ppl over 450 gets ita every round the score will stay over 460 or even 465

 

[Simarleen2512]

New here. Hello everyone.

Score of 447 and I was confident will get through during June draws but this draw was devastating. Considering doing French. Anyone have any experience in learning French? How long does it take?

 

[Lena32]

Add me with 443 and big hope for OINP
(education and IT job experience in Ontario).

May 31, 2019
Important Notice
Please be advised that the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program (OINP) will be undergoing scheduled system maintenance on Friday, May 31, 2019 from 5:00 p.m. (EST) to Sunday, June 2 at 11:00 p.m.

 

[Simarleen2512]

Anyone having an M.Com that was considered equivalent to Bachelors?

 

[sarak1812]

i hope next draw is 459-460 .. i just hope please
then next around 456-455
then problem solved
everyone happy

 

[sarak1812]

But I know it is going to be
466 - 12th June
464 - 26th June
462 - 10th July
461 - 24th July
460 - 7th August
459 - 22nd August
PNP in September

people scoring above 460 and 460 are totally safe they just need to wait till July or August

 

[royalking]

But I know it is going to be
466 - 12th June
464 - 26th June
462 - 10th July
461 - 24th July
460 - 7th August
459 - 22nd August
PNP in September

people scoring above 460 and 460 are totally safe they just need to wait till July or August

so no chance for 456;