For the whole of Aug/Sept, we were seeing the cut off staying around the 440 mark. The last draw in Sept had a 441 cut off, but then the invites were down to 3500 from 3900, so no surprise there. So, definitely seeing a 445 cut off within 2 weeks with 3900 invites is shocking.
In the next draw (if on Oct 17th), if the cut off goes down to 440-443 range with 3900 ITAs then it means there was an abnormal increase in the intake between Sept 19 and Oct 3. If the cut off stays around the 444-445 range or increases above 445 with 3900 ITAs, then it means the intake levels have increased and 440/441 would not be a safe cut off score going forward.
Actually the increase was a bit steep.
You need to consider 2 things.
1. There was no 3 weeks gap between normal draws
2. There was no significant decrease there (yes 2 weeks before it was 3500, but this week it was 3900, which makes it an average 3700 for each draw)
Now compare the behaviour during this summer where the amount of ITA were more or less the same but you did not see such movement upwards).
So yes something must have change in the system that helped lot of people to get 445+ And that would be IELTS on computer (as there is no other significant change we know about).
Secondly, when you look the total size of EE pool and compare it before 2 draws happens (this week normal draw and FST draw). it did jump more than normal.
So that would again point to a change in the system.
So if rounds of English test just became more available to anybody who had the money for it (and that was in some cases the only reason why people could not get better score - monthes of waiting to get a date for IELTS exam), this will push competition up.
Of course once you see the bigger jump up within first 3 months of new testing availability in place, EE will find new stability point.
