The increment is explained by the fact that it's measured by the 90th percentile of applications that are processed. It's not an average. IF the 90th percentile falls below this threshold, then the estimates move from 22 to 23. That would certainly explain your question.I understand your hypothesis but what is your justification for the last increment happened 2 weeks ago (from 22 to 23 months)?
If they use the data till March 2020 for calculation, how could the processing time has increased 2 weeks ago?
I also expect delays in processing but they would probably not let it take more than 2 years.
Based on this opinion, I expect to see bulk MRs and PPRs in the following months.