Possibilities of Low ITAs and High CRS for next few draws

[tomjaz004]

Please read the full post before comment i spent the whole day to analysing data from various CIC reports and previous draws. Make sure to reply to add your points.


First it is my calculation only but as i am eagerly waiting for ITA i spent 2 hours to conclude that after examining the report by CIC of PR admission in canada from Q12014-Q12016 and number of invitation from past draws as well as Immigration Levels Plans of 2015 & 2016 it can be seen that they have 58K(Federal Economic—High Skilled) + 26K (QSW) 84K admission available in 2016 for skilled, trades and CEC categories.

As from report it is clear that they have used almost 24K (23731 exactly) in first Quarter of 2016. which mean 60K-61K available for last 3 Quarters. That's where CIC cut down the number of ITAs because last year this total was 96K(QSW+CEC+Trades) and they were going good bcz 24K*4=96K. But when Govt. announced new plan for 2016 it was cut down to 84K. From here on my calculations are based on the idea that after ITA it'll take 4-6 months to get PR in most cases. So taking that we can say that in second quarter of 2016 candidates who got ITAs in NOV 2015, Dec 2015 & JAN 2015 which is total of 10,500 ITAs almost have got admissions in second quarter. Based on that if we take 10K ITAs means 20K admission in express entry From FSW, trades and CEC. I exclude QSW because that is not part of ITAs. Now i said 20K because from report Which i attached you can easily see that spouse and dependants are same in numbers as primary applicants(Actually they are little bit more than p.a.).So 20K admissions plus noW We have to add QSW also Which is 6.3K(this is including spouse and dependants) every quarter bcz they have target of 26K so every quarter they admit around 6K i am pretty sure about that after analysing the previous years data. NoW We have got 20K+6K means 26K total admission in Q2 of 2016. So We have left With 61K-26K= 35K admissions for last 2 quarters.

NoW my friends by same process in Q3 candidates Who have got ITAs in Feb, March and april likely to get admissions which is total of 7K ITAs Which means 14K admissions excluding QSW. After including QSW Which is 6K every quarter it comes up 14K+6K=20K admissions in Q3 of 2016. So noW We have left With 35~36K- 20K=16K admissions available for last quarter for 2016.

For last quarter We have already got around 3500 ITAs issued in May June Which is 7K admissions With month of july left bcz ITA issued in that months likely to get admission in 2016. So 7K+6K (For QSW for sure) =13K Which gives us the month of july they can only issue 1.5K ITAs bcz With spouse and dependants this'll become 1.5K*2= 3K Which is exactly What We have left after 16K-13K =3K. And Who knoWs Whether they gonna take one draW of Aug as possible admissions in 2016.

So my point it is reasonable if CIC take 3-4 more draWs to increase ITAs. Then after July in Aug or Sep they'll issue ITAs Which Will count toWards 2017. Then until plans Will be announced for 2017 they Will use 2016 target as their target means 84K for SW CEC & Trades. Then We can hope for 1.5K draWs.

I am @461 eagerly Waiting for ITA that's i decided to analyse the data to help us predict the future. It took me the Whole day to analyse and Write.
Hope this Will help.

 

[axlh17]

A video was posted here a while ago implying they're clearing backlogs and will have much higher draw numbers in a few months. Not sure how that's gonna play out.

 

[tomjaz004]

I don't even consider backlogs if i add the backlogs then situation'll be even bad. I think they are processing those paper file separately.From data available and from calculations it is clear that situation is far from ok. The main reason behind this new immigration plan which cut down 12K PRs from economy class that where we are fcuked. Believe or not new Govt made it worse this tradue and macullum fcuked us bro.. I am very disappointed.. :-[

 

[Skvach]

new Govt made it worse this tradue and macullum fcuked us bro.. I am very disappointed.. :-[

Everybody thought that conservators were evil. However, as it turned out, they were quite good :/
Yeh, never trust liberals.

 

[Skvach]

There was a similar discussion here:
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/immigrationexpress-entry-q1-2016-quarterly-report-86000-prs-granted-t431254.0.html;msg5275775#msg5275775

 

[Nas man]

OP this a very detailed analysis, great job and I personally think your predictions and analysis are spot on.

We can only hope for the last quarter before the numbers of ITAs issued would be increased since it would count for next year.

I currently stand with 453 with my family. Am heartbroken that I would have to wait that long but I guess God knows how best he plans things and we can only hope it turns out successful when the time comes to file application.

Wish you the very best and thanks for the analysis.

Cheers.

 

[axlh17]

OP what's your prediction of cutoff score when 1500 ITA is issued again?

 

[tomjaz004]

OP what's your prediction of cutoff score when 1500 ITA is issued again?

I hope that'll happen soon but in reality it look like it'll take at least 2 months. Yes in Sep they have to increase ITAs not sure 1.5K maybe upto 1.2K until 2017 plan'll be declared.

 

[andy108]

Till the number of invites will remain low the score wont fall.

I have developed this report, it has been spot on for 2 rounds. however, it is not as accurate, due to the fact that number of entries is a low, i encourage everyone to add their score to the spreadsheet, so to increase the report accuracy.

 

[tomjaz004]

I really hope thAT i am wrong...

 

[scylla]

I don't even consider backlogs

You have to consider backlogs. Without backlogs, any calculations are meaningless.

 

[LokiJr01]

@andy108, based on your analysis, around what month should we see draws increase?

I know this topic is entirely variable, but any quantifiable assessment would be more reliable than mere speculation hehe

 

[thejkhan]

Pointless analysis.

The situation is really straightforward.

Number of ITAs went down to limit number of PR landings this year, because a whole lot of older pre-EE applications are getting approved and subsequently landing, contributing to this year's immigration target.

The number will go up again in the last quarter of this year because those applicants are projected to land next year.

 

[bestofluck]

ANALYSIS DONE IN A DAY? ARE U JOKING? PEOPLE ARE DOING THE ANALYSIS SINCE MORE THAN A YEAR AND THEY END UP NO WHERE. THE REASON IS THEY HAVE NO STANDARD POLICY OR PROCESS OR METHOD. THEY ARE STILL IN A DEVELOPING PHASE OF EE. TODAY IS NOT REFLECTED FROM YESTERDAY AND TOMORROW CANNOT BE PREDICTED FORM TODAY. AND THE CHANGE OF GOVT HAS MESSED UP EVERYTHING. THEY HAVE PAUSED THE OLD SYSTEM OR MADE IT SLOW AND NOT COMING UP WITH THEIR NEW SYSTEM. WHEN YOU ARE DISCUSSING ABOUT THE TIME THEY WILL INCREASE THE NUMBER OF ITA'S I WONT BE SURPRISED IF THEY COME OUT AND SAY NO MORE ITA'S TILL THE SYSTEM IS REVISED. JUST HOPE TO SEE SOMETHING IN FAVOR OF APPLICANTS, ITS LONG SINCE WE HAVE HEARD SOMETHING GOOD.

GOOD LUCK AND WISH THEY AT LEAST SAVE EXPRESS ENTRY OR CHANGE THE NAME TO SLOW ENTRY

 

[kateg]

ANALYSIS DONE IN A DAY? ARE U JOKING? PEOPLE ARE DOING THE ANALYSIS SINCE MORE THAN A YEAR AND THEY END UP NO WHERE. THE REASON IS THEY HAVE NO STANDARD POLICY OR PROCESS OR METHOD. THEY ARE STILL IN A DEVELOPING PHASE OF EE. TODAY IS NOT REFLECTED FROM YESTERDAY AND TOMORROW CANNOT BE PREDICTED FORM TODAY. AND THE CHANGE OF GOVT HAS MESSED UP EVERYTHING. THEY HAVE PAUSED THE OLD SYSTEM OR MADE IT SLOW AND NOT COMING UP WITH THEIR NEW SYSTEM. WHEN YOU ARE DISCUSSING ABOUT THE TIME THEY WILL INCREASE THE NUMBER OF ITA'S I WONT BE SURPRISED IF THEY COME OUT AND SAY NO MORE ITA'S TILL THE SYSTEM IS REVISED. JUST HOPE TO SEE SOMETHING IN FAVOR OF APPLICANTS, ITS LONG SINCE WE HAVE HEARD SOMETHING GOOD.

GOOD LUCK AND WISH THEY AT LEAST SAVE EXPRESS ENTRY OR CHANGE THE NAME TO SLOW ENTRY

Express Entry has acted consistently, with regards to government levels and priorities. For some reason, you kept wanting to insist that points would go down (again and again), despite experienced members telling you it wouldn't.

It is Express. It takes an average of a little over 3 months to get through the system, once you qualify to apply.

There are more people who want to go to Canada than the number of slots. The only way to address that is to keep people from applying, unless you want long waits (which is what the old system had).