This definitely stinks, I am very discouraged after today for sure. I've still got 2y on my WP but its definitely making me nervous. Just need either this CEC or the new pathway whenever it is released
July draw predictions
- Thread starter aommnd
- Start date
Yeah, a very sensible take. I think the backlog for FHS was 75000 at the start of the year, minus this year’s quota 55900, they would take up roughly 20000 spots in 2023, which leaves about 55000 additional ITAs between July 2022 and June 2023. For the 26 draws in this period, that’s an average of 2100 pure FHS applicants, so if we also include ~700 PNP in every draw, they need an average of 2800 ITAs in each draw
Why would it increase in Nov 2022?
Also, 2-3 months is a long time for this pain lol. The new pathway could be the saving grace
Not the OP, but I believe they have to revise immigration quota each November. It doesn't necessarily mean that it would increase. It might stay the same or go down. 
The above is a sensible calculation (if we don't take new TR to PR into account), but they should have already started with it, and they didn't. They said they would go to pre-pandemic number of invitations and they didn't. Not sure what to say at this point.
The above is a sensible calculation (if we don't take new TR to PR into account), but they should have already started with it, and they didn't. They said they would go to pre-pandemic number of invitations and they didn't. Not sure what to say at this point.
Huge bummer for CEC candidates, aka all graduates from 2021. Still have 2 yrs on WP but anxiety is mind wreckingNot the OP, but I believe they have to revise immigration quota each November. It doesn't necessarily mean that it would increase. It might stay the same or go down.
The above is a sensible calculation (if we don't take new TR to PR into account), but they should have already started with it, and they didn't. They said they would go to pre-pandemic number of invitations and they didn't. Not sure what to say at this point.
What makes you think CEC people aren't getting in these draws?
To have a score of 557, I mean, you probably need perfect English & French, bonus points from an education in Canada and bonus points for Canadian work experience. No?
CEC people can, but it will be hard. 557 is a very high score and requires perfect French and masters and more than 2 yrs Canadian experience generally.
Regular graduates almost certainly won't get 557. Check out Kubeir's video, he went through some sample profiles around 550. Tl;dr, its very hard.
I've got perfect English (CLB 10 across the board), higher level degree, NOC-A job, 1yr Canadian experience and still around 475, with an LMIA it would be 525, still 32 points below 557.
Yes, there are some CEC within these candidates, I am sure. I know an average CEC candidate has fewer points than an average FSW, but it's possible.
Which is another reason why I don't think they would do CEC draws. Because general draws invite some CEC so it's not like CEC people are excluded from the draws.
Which is another reason why I don't think they would do CEC draws. Because general draws invite some CEC so it's not like CEC people are excluded from the draws.
I guess the main question is about international graduates. It is correct that there will be some CEC people with high scores (although I still feel it will be a small number of people), but international graduates won't be in that pool. I guess the new pathway is the best hope now.
CEC candidates that have both Canadian and foreign experience will get an additional 50 that pushes them over 550. Imo it's more likely for CEC candidates to get over 550 than FSW because of the bonus 30 points. And of course it's very hard there are very few people who are above 550, only a few hundreds and that's the accumulated total for the last 9 months.
Why do you think International graduates won't be in this pool? You get a lot of points for Canadian graduate diploma (masters or PhD) and Canadian experience. If my wife were younger (let's say, 29), she would have 548 points at the moment, and 559 in September (upon completing 2 years of experience). Perhaps a PhD at 29 is not a common thing, but it's possible to get a lot of points as an international graduate. The thing is that it's rare, I guess.
For example, I am an international graduate with 501 (20-29, Master's, Canadian work exp 1yr, all CLB 10 English), if I had one year work experience in my home country I would've got 551, and if I had a PhD on top of that it'd be 566. French language skill or additional work experience could also push me over the threshold.
I'm a Canadian graduate with NOC-A job, CLB 10 for everything and a 4 year degree and its barely 475. I guess if you include PhD thats a completely different ballgame but as you said, PhD is far and few even for Canadian citizens let alone intl.