Here is how the CRS will go below 400 (Updated with more graphs)

[Immime2017]

GOOD NEWS! The score will definitely go below 400 soon!

Here is why:

• I have been doing a lot of calculations using the last three stats released about the number of candidates in the pool and their scores
• Felt like it was not sufficient data for predicting the trend over the next rounds
• I found out that they released the same data about the pool as of 3/Jan/2017 in their Year-End Report 2016
• I used that to predict the next few rounds, given the average number of candidates added per day over the last 4 months
• The results [taking into account the changes they introduce mid June]:
  • Conservative estimate: CRS goes under 400 on July 26
  • Regular estimate: CRS goes under 400 on July 5 (Likely Scenario)
  • Optimistic estimate: CRS goes under 400 on June 21
• You can see the trend in the pool since January here:

This makes it really clear!

Updated graph with trend-line and prediction:

Some of my calculations: http://imgur.com/a/SatZC

 

[nanning]

Your analysis is reasonable.
Hope we can see CRS below 400 this summer.

 

[MyCANdream]

I agree and am having sleepless nights for the same
Please pray

 

[MALLHI]

GOOD NEWS! The score will definitely go below 400 soon!

Here is why:

• I have been doing a lot of calculations using the last three stats released about the number of candidates in the pool and their scores
• Felt like it was not sufficient data for predicting the trend over the next rounds
• I found out that they released the same data about the pool as of 3/Jan/2017 in their Year-End Report 2016
• I used that to predict the next few rounds, given the average number of candidates added per day over the last 4 months
• The results [taking into account the changes they introduce mid June]:
  • Conservative estimate: CRS goes under 400 on July 26
  • Regular estimate: CRS goes under 400 on July 5 (Likely Scenario)
  • Optimistic estimate: CRS goes under 400 on June 21
• You can see the trend in the pool since January here: imgur.com/kEvDIzZ (This makes it really clear!)
• Some of my calculations: imgur.com/a/SatZC

Did You take the June 06 onwards changes into consideration which will increase the points for many who have relatives and French language skills?

 

[Immime2017]

Did You take the June 06 onwards changes into consideration which will increase the points for many who have relatives and French language skills?

Yes, I did, in the conservative estimate. Actually, none of the three estimates take into account the possibility of two rounds in a row, they all assume one round every two weeks. If they do two rounds of invitations in a row — which is very likely — the score will reach 400 earlier.

 

[Wandering Mind]

Thank you for this!

 

[ajithj]

GOOD NEWS! The score will definitely go below 400 soon!

Here is why:

• I have been doing a lot of calculations using the last three stats released about the number of candidates in the pool and their scores
• Felt like it was not sufficient data for predicting the trend over the next rounds
• I found out that they released the same data about the pool as of 3/Jan/2017 in their Year-End Report 2016
• I used that to predict the next few rounds, given the average number of candidates added per day over the last 4 months
• The results [taking into account the changes they introduce mid June]:
  • Conservative estimate: CRS goes under 400 on July 26
  • Regular estimate: CRS goes under 400 on July 5 (Likely Scenario)
  • Optimistic estimate: CRS goes under 400 on June 21
• You can see the trend in the pool since January here: imgur.com/kEvDIzZ (This makes it really clear!)
• Some of my calculations: imgur.com/a/SatZC

There were 3796 candidates with 423+ scores added in 2 weeks (between April 19th and May 4th). Doesn't this mean the scores will always remain constant around 420 unless IRCC increases the number of invitations in each round?

The score had dropped to 415 on April 19th only because there were draws on consecutive weeks. The score went back to 423 when there was a gap of two weeks between the draws.

 

[Immime2017]

There were 3796 candidates with 423+ scores added in 2 weeks (between April 19th and May 4th). Doesn't this mean the scores will always remain constant around 420 unless IRCC increases the number of invitations in each round?

The score had dropped to 415 on April 19th only because there were draws on consecutive weeks. The score went back to 423 when there was a gap of two weeks between the draws.

The rate of candidates added with a score over 400 doesn't match the # of candidates they take, so even if they do one round only every two weeks, the trend will continue downwards.

 

[nokia3315]

350 in June

 

[Immime2017]

350 in June

Let's hope so, certainly possible if they do multiple consecutive draws again. If they keep going at their average rate 2.3 rounds per month, it's likely they will hit 350 in July.

 

[iamtheniravp]

Mine is 411. Should I expect in next draw ?

 

[Immime2017]

Mine is 411. Should I expect in next draw ?

In June if they do only 1 round every two weeks. Much sooner, if the do two consecutive rounds.

 

[ajithj]

The rate of candidates added with a score over 400 doesn't match the # of candidates they take, so even if they do one round only every two weeks, the trend will continue downwards.

Every 2 weeks there are around 3800 candidates added with score above 420, this is same as the number of invitations sent out. So the scores will not drop below 420.

Below is the calculation:

April 19th draw - cutoff score was 415, all candidates with score 415 and above invited
- Now there are 0 candidates in the pool with score above 415

May 4th draw - Cutoff score of 423 and 3796 candidates invited.

So this means that in the two weeks between April 19th and May 4th, 3796 new candidates were added with score above 423.


The assumption that the spike in 451-600 range was due to university/masters grads do not seem to be true. Because university grads graduate at different periods in a year. Also they complete their 1 year experience at different times of the year.

 

[nanning]

Every 2 weeks there are around 3800 candidates added with score above 420, this is same as the number of invitations sent out. So the scores will not drop below 420.

Below is the calculation:

April 19th draw - cutoff score was 415, all candidates with score 415 and above invited
- Now there are 0 candidates in the pool with score above 415

May 4th draw - Cutoff score of 423 and 3796 candidates invited.

So this means that in the two weeks between April 19th and May 4th, 3796 new candidates were added with score above 423.


The assumption that the spike in 451-600 range was due to university/masters grads do not seem to be true. Because university grads graduate at different periods in a year. Also they complete their 1 year experience at different times of the year.

If your assumption is correct, the cutoff will never fall below 420.
But we never know how many new candidates with 400+ join the pool every two weeks.

 

[ajithj]

If your assumption is correct, the cutoff will never fall below 420.
But we never know how many new candidates with 400+ join the pool every two weeks.

It is not an assumption, we know that 3800 new candidates entered the pool with 420+ scores in the last 2 weeks.