Important Discussion! Hello everyone, I hope to start a discussion on observation from today's processing timelines refresh on IRCC's website. I am someone who works and deals with statistics and data for living and I build models, but IRCC's processing is leaving me confused. Here are my observations, and if you have any suggestions please do comment as I am trying to make sense.
As of December 2025 IRCC stated the following number of applications pending for the following months:
October 2019 - 400 pending
October 2020 - 500 pending
October 2021 - 700 pending
October 2022 - 1,300 pending
October 2023 - 3,700 pending
October 2024 - 20,300 pending
October 2025 - 43,900 pending
When I look at most recent data refreshed as of today 14th Jan on IRCC's site, the numbers show:
October 2019 - 400 pending (no change)
October 2020 - 500 pending (no change)
October 2021 - 700 pending (no change)
October 2022 - 1,300 pending (no change)
October 2023 - 4,000 pending (change of +300)
October 2024 - 21,900 pending (change of +600)
October 2025 - 45,200 pending (change of +1,300)
Questions - How can these the number of pending applications increase, but only for 2023 to 2025?
If it's increasing due to family violence/domestic violence but why isn't years before 2023 increasing?
Are the numbers before 2023 incorrect or non existent? I have thought of everything but unsure. What are you all your thoughts? (I have been documenting these numbers)