It is purely data and history. Also pretty high consensus between the immigration lawyers and consultants I interact with. When immigration programs in the past (as recently as last year) became no longer functional the government decided to cull the program and start all over again. If IRCC was not going to do something dramatic to general H&C they would have allocated a much higher yearly quota to the program which they didn’t. Culling the whole program would be the easiest and the least legally complicated than trying to separate out groups from the existing pool. The pool is so big that even if you tried to separate out certain groups you would still likely be left with a large pool. It will also become more legally complicated for IRCC. The other big sign is the fact that there was very little movement in H&C until around December 2025 when it became clear that bill c-12 was not going to be passed in 2025. IRCC doesn’t always work logically but I see no other way but to start from scratch. Processing times of decades when H&C doesn’t stop removals doesn’t help applicants. We are seeing more people who have applied for H&C being removed. Trying to remain in Canada without status until an H&C case is processed decades from now also not a good option for most people. IRCC also has to make a drastic change to stop adding to the backlog.
