H&C Humanitarian Ground with/or Without Failed refugee claim

[wiener]

Wouldn’t count on that especially for general H&C. If IRCC didn’t have mass cancellations in mind for some programs they wouldn’t be pursing things like bill c-12 and would have allocated more quota to H&C especially general H&C. Given the number of temporary residents in Canada and the plan to reduce volume dramatically this has to involve things like mass cancellations of some programs and the prevention of applying for H&C and asylum if you have no pathway to PR. It would also be incredibly difficult to screen all the H&C applications if IRCC decided they would not cancel general H&C but would have a very strict criteria. It is much less complicated and expensive to start from scratch. The liberals had planned on bill c-12 being passed much earlier but they are essentially waiting for bill c-12 to pass before likely announcing their plans. This also gets tricky because as a minor they have to find some MPs to pass it. Assuming this will be challenge in court but most will have no legal way to stay as any challenges make it makes it through the courts. Would personally operate as if the program will be cancelled and have a plan B, C, D, etc.

I think the goal of the initial plan under Bill C-12 seems to be reducing the number of temporary residents not by removing roughly three million people already here — many of whom have lived in Canada for over five years — but by transitioning a significant portion of them to permanent residency. These long-term residents are ‘temporary’ only on paper, and it makes more sense for the government to regularize their status rather than remove them. However, in proposed amendments of bill C12 there is provision that seek to block this. Hopefully, this provision is not incorporated in the third reading and some liberal and NDP MPs push the government to regularize status of 3 million temporary residents in Canada.
https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/45-1/SECU/report-2

 

[Buletruck]

I think the goal of the initial plan under Bill C-12 seems to be reducing the number of temporary residents not by removing roughly three million people already here — many of whom have lived in Canada for over five years — but by transitioning a significant portion of them to permanent residency. These long-term residents are ‘temporary’ only on paper, and it makes more sense for the government to regularize their status rather than remove them. However, in proposed amendments of bill C12 there is provision that seek to block this. Hopefully, this provision is not incorporated in the third reading and some liberal and NDP MPs push the government to regularize status of 3 million temporary residents in Canada.
https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/45-1/SECU/report-2

So the problem with regularizing 3 million temporary residents is it would set precedence going forward that would allow anyone who manages to remain in Canada, regardless of status, to demand permenent residency, as long as they've been here a certain amount of time.
Never going to happen. It would be political sucide (there's a reason the NDP have never formed a federal government).

 

[canuck78]

I think the goal of the initial plan under Bill C-12 seems to be reducing the number of temporary residents not by removing roughly three million people already here — many of whom have lived in Canada for over five years — but by transitioning a significant portion of them to permanent residency. These long-term residents are ‘temporary’ only on paper, and it makes more sense for the government to regularize their status rather than remove them. However, in proposed amendments of bill C12 there is provision that seek to block this. Hopefully, this provision is not incorporated in the third reading and some liberal and NDP MPs push the government to regularize status of 3 million temporary residents in Canada.
https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/45-1/SECU/report-2

One of the primary goals of bill c-12 is to try to have some better options to tackle the temporary residents who have no pathway to PR but will likely try to remain via various methods. The government needs a better and more efficient way to try to remove people who have no pathway to PR and ways to try to prevent people from being able to extend their stay by applying for programs or keep on appealing decisions/refusals. Removing people from Canada is currently an extremely long and expensive process. The backlogs for JRs were already over a year but are just going to get worse if some sort of action is not taken. The government has made it very clear that they expect a large number of the temporary residents to leave Canada even if they have spent many years if not much longer in Canada. There is also minimal support to welcome more PRs. The government had to sneak in a few 1 time PR policies while declaring they were decreasing the amount of people who will receive PR next year. They realized that being honest would not be politically palatable for most voters.

 

[Mahisharm]

Today one more AIP of my Friend ,I am Happy for them .

 

[WellWell2021]

Today one more AIP of my Friend ,I am Happy for them .

Congratulations ! Could you share his timeline ?

 

[Mahisharm]

Congratulations ! Could you share his timeline ?

They applied in January 2024. In October 2025, applied for PRRA, but today the PRRA was cancelled and they received their AIP by Email.

 

[WellWell2021]

They applied in January 2024. In October 2025, applied for PRRA, but today the PRRA was cancelled and they received their AIP by Email.

Form Quebec ?

 

[Mahisharm]

Form Quebec ?

Yes

 

[sting 000]

So the problem with regularizing 3 million temporary residents is it would set precedence going forward that would allow anyone who manages to remain in Canada, regardless of status, to demand permenent residency, as long as they've been here a certain amount of time.
Never going to happen. It would be political sucide (there's a reason the NDP have never formed a federal government).

This government will always find means to regularize small portion of TR in demand occupations or people who are contributing to the economy for a long time instead of transition of 3 million TR to PR..
Everyone has forgotten the forthcoming 14000 pr slots promised by the government for construction workers in which 6000 slots is for out of status construction workers.
And additional 5000 PR spaces for licenced doctors: The 5,000 federal admission spaces are specifically reserved for provinces and territories to nominate licensed doctors who have job offers in Canada. These spots are in addition to the regular annual Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
And other one time pr pathways included in the budget that are not in the immigration level plan..
And caregiver pr pathway will return in 2026.
It is obvious that the government will exceed the pr target in 2025 and 2026 .

 

[canuck78]

This government will always find means to regularize small portion of TR in demand occupations or people who are contributing to the economy for a long time instead of transition of 3 million TR to PR..
Everyone has forgotten the forthcoming 14000 pr slots promised by the government for construction workers in which 6000 slots is for out of status construction workers.
And additional 5000 PR spaces for licenced doctors: The 5,000 federal admission spaces are specifically reserved for provinces and territories to nominate licensed doctors who have job offers in Canada. These spots are in addition to the regular annual Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
And other one time pr pathways included in the budget that are not in the immigration level plan..
And caregiver pr pathway will return in 2026.
It is obvious that the government will exceed the pr target in 2025 and 2026 .

Not clear that the MD spots are not accounted for in the federal allocation of the other “one time” policy. There is a clear benefit for Canada vs the actual MDs in this situation and this should have been in place a long time ago. There is minimal new construction going on in many parts of Canada and many blue collar workers that are already PRs or citizens who will become unemployed so I would not expect a huge focus on construction workers when it comes to immigration except the very skilled trades. Canada can’t absorb anywhere close to the amount of temporary residents. We never could but poor policy decisions lead to having way too many people enter Canada in a short amount of time. To get the system back on course there will need to be some pretty drastic action.

 

[wiener]

I have noticed significant recent movement in H&C files. Based on current processing data, about 1,100 files were finalized in the last 30 days. If IRCC continues working at this same pace, the remaining backlog would take roughly four years to clear.

 

[canuck78]

I have noticed significant recent movement in H&C files. Based on current processing data, about 1,100 files were finalized in the last 30 days. If IRCC continues working at this same pace, the remaining backlog would take roughly four years to clear.

Do you mean AIP or PR? Either is likely a sign that some major reform is coming. If PR IRCC was likely hoping to reform/cancel the program this year but since bill c-12 hasn’t passed they will fill the quota for 2025. There was very little movement for most of the year so that is why they likely approved people quickly close to the end of the year. Your math still wouldn’t work to clear the backlog in 4 years with an even lower yearly quota. If you are predicting based on this sudden surge of approvals that is likely a one time event due to not filling a large portion of the 2025 quota not an indication IRCC would continue approvals in such large numbers. If anything this appears to confirm they were hoping to cull the program in 2025 but bill c-2 and now c-12 is taking much longer then they expected to pass.

 

[wiener]

Do you mean AIP or PR? Either is likely a sign that some major reform is coming. If PR IRCC was likely hoping to reform/cancel the program this year but since bill c-12 hasn’t passed they will fill the quota for 2025. There was very little movement for most of the year so that is why they likely approved people quickly close to the end of the year. Your math still wouldn’t work to clear the backlog in 4 years with an even lower yearly quota. If you are predicting based on this sudden surge of approvals that is likely a one time event due to not filling a large portion of the 2025 quota not an indication IRCC would continue approvals in such large numbers. If anything this appears to confirm they were hoping to cull the program in 2025 but bill c-2 and now c-12 is taking much longer then they expected to pass.

1100 files have been finalized (either approval or refusal) in 30 days. The exact approval rate is not clear. It is possible majority of decisions are refusals since we have not seen many AIP recently. I think this recent spike in finalizations may indicate that changes are coming to this program and IRCC is clearing out files that have weak grounds (parent/grandparent cases for example). If they keep the same pace, it would take approxiamtely 4 years to clear 48k files.