I’d never have imagined a 516 would sweat about EE draws before 2021, but yet here we are…IRCC’s poor planning around the TR2PR stream made all of us pay the price. I have 501 so I know exactly how many people are in front of me, every round I am doing calculations…If they have regular bi-weekly FSW inclusive draws, with a 1500 draw size, it will take 3-4 months for 501+ to clear. Expect an increase in high scores between now and September. PNP is a regular 600-700 out of the 1500 drawn. So technically the FSW/CEC quota per draw is 800-900 and that's being generous in the calculation. Even with zero influx of new candidates, it will take a long time to clear the 501+ scores. I'm sweating with a 516, I can only imagine what the 480s and 490s are feeling. 470-480 is imposssible no matter how you look at it.
So yeah you're right, score will not go down much this year. These draws are for the reduced 2023 quota. When they start drawing for 2024 (I'd imagine Q2-3 2023), if the express entry quota is back to the regular amount, then and only then will scores drop by any significant amount.