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cz999

Hero Member
Feb 1, 2020
339
203
NOC Code......
1122
If they have regular bi-weekly FSW inclusive draws, with a 1500 draw size, it will take 3-4 months for 501+ to clear. Expect an increase in high scores between now and September. PNP is a regular 600-700 out of the 1500 drawn. So technically the FSW/CEC quota per draw is 800-900 and that's being generous in the calculation. Even with zero influx of new candidates, it will take a long time to clear the 501+ scores. I'm sweating with a 516, I can only imagine what the 480s and 490s are feeling. 470-480 is imposssible no matter how you look at it.

So yeah you're right, score will not go down much this year. These draws are for the reduced 2023 quota. When they start drawing for 2024 (I'd imagine Q2-3 2023), if the express entry quota is back to the regular amount, then and only then will scores drop by any significant amount.
I’d never have imagined a 516 would sweat about EE draws before 2021, but yet here we are…IRCC’s poor planning around the TR2PR stream made all of us pay the price. I have 501 so I know exactly how many people are in front of me, every round I am doing calculations…
 

Impatient Dankaroo

VIP Member
Jan 10, 2020
4,379
2,663
I’d never have imagined a 516 would sweat about EE draws before 2021, but yet here we are…IRCC’s poor planning around the TR2PR stream made all of us pay the price. I have 501 so I know exactly how many people are in front of me, every round I am doing calculations…
Go for AINP?
 

Ultraxion

Hero Member
May 10, 2022
258
190
Just in case anyone does know, imagine Karen being 29 y/o, never married, graduated from XYZ Uni at her home country, worked for a yr, felt her country sucks, so she moved to Canada for a master, got her PGWP and worked a yr on that. This is perfectly realistic right? If she happens to have CLB 10 in eng/fran, guess her CRS score as *CEC*?
613. Voila, that's how you get 600+ w/o PNP.
 

Impatient Dankaroo

VIP Member
Jan 10, 2020
4,379
2,663
Ukraine/Russia war has caused shift in global economies. Europe is headed for the shitter. Russia basically said, if you shoot us, we bringing you down too. Expect demand for Canadian immigration to keep increasing. Its proximity to US economy + abundance of natural resources means they will continously have a strong job market. Ultimately us beggars cant be choosers
 
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friskflask

Newbie
Jul 6, 2022
7
8
Has anyone else here faced this situation or come across anything similar?

Got back my passport on July 5, 2022 without a stamp and with a letter attached that said Application in Progress.

PPR received on June 20, 2022, FSW-O, COR: India, VO: RROC, Remedical passed: April 27, 2022. No documents as per my knowledge are nearing their expiry.

PLEASE HELP!
 

Impatient Dankaroo

VIP Member
Jan 10, 2020
4,379
2,663
I work from home in Alberta but my employer is in Ontario. So although it’s Canadian experience I don’t think I will be invited by either PNP program. I have been in the pool since April and no nomination from anywhere yer
AINP doesn't have set criteria, I say you have a high chance if you live there / studied there
 
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SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
If they have regular bi-weekly FSW inclusive draws, with a 1500 draw size, it will take 3-4 months for 501+ to clear. Expect an increase in high scores between now and September. PNP is a regular 600-700 out of the 1500 drawn. So technically the FSW/CEC quota per draw is 800-900 and that's being generous in the calculation. Even with zero influx of new candidates, it will take a long time to clear the 501+ scores. I'm sweating with a 516, I can only imagine what the 480s and 490s are feeling. 470-480 is imposssible no matter how you look at it.

So yeah you're right, score will not go down much this year. These draws are for the reduced 2023 quota. When they start drawing for 2024 (I'd imagine Q2-3 2023), if the express entry quota is back to the regular amount, then and only then will scores drop by any significant amount.
We are at 483 and wondering about what to do. I still need to pass English, and my wife (primary applicant) will get additional 11 points for work experience in September. But I wonder if that's enough. She has French, so that might help if they target French speaking people.
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
https://www.ee-stats.com/charts/
This website has historical score distributions. From September 2021 to now, I’d say on average 501-600 increased by 300-350 per draw. So if they keep the 1500 draw size (which means 600-700 PNP and 800-900 CEC/FSW) it will take about 16 draws (~7.5 months) to clear out all 501+. But I do think the draw size will increase though to meet 2023 quota (75000).
I expected them to start with more invitations, to be honest. So this was a surprise. My theory is that they started with a small draw either because of the backlogs or because they are making room for the new TR to PR. (That one is supposed to be launched in September).
 
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cz999

Hero Member
Feb 1, 2020
339
203
NOC Code......
1122
I expected them to start with more invitations, to be honest. So this was a surprise. My theory is that they started with a small draw either because of the backlogs or because they are making room for the new TR to PR. (That one is supposed to be launched in September).
Yeah I was expecting 3000+ as well but oh well. I agree with you’re reasoning, not sure if they will launch the new Tr to Pr in September I think Sean Fraser has to release the framework of the program then but not necessarily launch it. Although I am inland I kinda don’t want them to launch the program just yet to add more uncertainty. Also see that your wife has French, I think you two can benefit from the potential group based draws which may target Francophones. I think with 494 if they increase the draws a bit in the near future there is a good chance you will get your ITA near the end of the year.
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
Yeah I was expecting 3000+ as well but oh well. I agree with you’re reasoning, not sure if they will launch the new Tr to Pr in September I think Sean Fraser has to release the framework of the program then but not necessarily launch it. Although I am inland I kinda don’t want them to launch the program just yet to add more uncertainty. Also see that your wife has French, I think you two can benefit from the potential group based draws which may target Francophones. I think with 494 if they increase the draws a bit in the near future there is a good chance you will get your ITA near the end of the year.
Right, September is only when he should prepare the program. But smaller draws might (or might not) be because they are making room for it.

We're hoping for targeted draws for Francophones but nobody knows when that would happen.

We'll try to get over 501 in September. I hope that will be enough.

Also, out profile expires early in September so we're wondering what to do. Create a new one now? Or when?

To be honest, a small draw really surprised us, because they did talk about bringing draws to a pre-pandemic level.
 
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dankboi

VIP Member
Apr 19, 2021
3,687
11,099
London, United Kingdom
Category........
FSW
Has anyone else here faced this situation or come across anything similar?

Got back my passport on July 5, 2022 without a stamp and with a letter attached that said Application in Progress.

PPR received on June 20, 2022, FSW-O, COR: India, VO: RROC, Remedical passed: April 27, 2022. No documents as per my knowledge are nearing their expiry.

PLEASE HELP!
someone have a look, tag the OP when responding.
@wonderbly @EscoBlades @PRANIT01 @Alysson @cansha @RSub @ElegantVegetable @ImpatientAlligator @Rkb94 @seadrag0n @oinkario
 

cz999

Hero Member
Feb 1, 2020
339
203
NOC Code......
1122
Right, September is only when he should prepare the program. But smaller draws might (or might not) be because they are making room for it.

We're hoping for targeted draws for Francophones but nobody knows when that would happen.

We'll try to get over 501 in September. I hope that will be enough.

Also, out profile expires early in September so we're wondering what to do. Create a new one now? Or when?

To be honest, a small draw really surprised us, because they did talk about bringing draws to a pre-pandemic level.
Yeah I agree they are probably trying to make room for it and not repeat their mistake last year (90000 TR2PR!!!!)
Honestly I feel if your profile expires in September it might make more sense to create a new one soon just for the tiebreaking rule? The way I see it you are at 483 before September, there is a very slim chance you will get invited before then even with a bigger draw, so may as well create a new one early?
 
D

Deleted member 1006777

Guest
We are at 483 and wondering about what to do. I still need to pass English, and my wife (primary applicant) will get additional 11 points for work experience in September. But I wonder if that's enough. She has French, so that might help if they target French speaking people.
Unfortunately at this point it's all speculation. Your score is too low for regular FSW and too high for Ontario French draws. Same situation I have been in since February of last year. I'd say there's a chance for you to get an ITA at 483, but slim. Much better chance at 494 but you'll have to wait till September at least imo.
 
D

Deleted member 1006777

Guest
I’d never have imagined a 516 would sweat about EE draws before 2021, but yet here we are…IRCC’s poor planning around the TR2PR stream made all of us pay the price. I have 501 so I know exactly how many people are in front of me, every round I am doing calculations…
Because Ontario decided to cap scores for French draws, people with 467 have gotten PRs by now, for the exact same stream I should have qualified for. Meanwhile I sit twiddling my thumbs for an ITA. At least this should be a lesson to everyone about how pathetic a country we are moving to. The only value Canada provides is a strong passport. That's it. Always remember that.

Sadly 501 means you're at the very bottom of the 8k profiles in the pool. It must be incredibly frustrating, knowing you have to wait months now. And that normally wouldn't be an issue if we could just trust IRCC to have regular draws. But people here tend to forget easily. Fraser throws a crumb and people lunge at it like starving animals. Then he rug pulls and disappoints everyone. I'd have thought 2 years would be long enough for people to learn.