>>>>>>>>>>February 2021<<<<<<<<<< AoR Join here
- Thread starter legalfalcon
- Start date
February FSW applicant from a December ITA here.
Guys, this is complete and utter speculation but I believe I should share this with you.
I estimated the immigration backlog using the following assumptions:
1. Rounds of invitation increase the backlog (CEC, PNP and FSW alike)
2. Each round of invitation has a "life expectancy" in the backlog that depends on the average duration of the process (which increased in the pandemic)
3. The rate of invitations that occured in 2021 will continue for the following months.
4. The current processing speed of 200 days aprox will continue.
5. No FSW from Sep to Dec 2020 were processed.
6. I believe that's it, ask questions if you need more info on my method.
Using this method, I found out that the average backlog before the pandemic was around 50 to 60k people. It increased to 150k mid 2021 and is now lowering again. It should go back, if the current processing rate continues, to a plateau of around 60 to 70k people around December.
Sadly, If I were pulling the strings at the immigration offices, I would only go back to working on the FSW applications after December. Untill then, they are still catching up in "pandemic mode".
Hope this helps. Please ask questions so I can perfect this method.
Guys, this is complete and utter speculation but I believe I should share this with you.
I estimated the immigration backlog using the following assumptions:
1. Rounds of invitation increase the backlog (CEC, PNP and FSW alike)
2. Each round of invitation has a "life expectancy" in the backlog that depends on the average duration of the process (which increased in the pandemic)
3. The rate of invitations that occured in 2021 will continue for the following months.
4. The current processing speed of 200 days aprox will continue.
5. No FSW from Sep to Dec 2020 were processed.
6. I believe that's it, ask questions if you need more info on my method.
Using this method, I found out that the average backlog before the pandemic was around 50 to 60k people. It increased to 150k mid 2021 and is now lowering again. It should go back, if the current processing rate continues, to a plateau of around 60 to 70k people around December.
Sadly, If I were pulling the strings at the immigration offices, I would only go back to working on the FSW applications after December. Untill then, they are still catching up in "pandemic mode".
Hope this helps. Please ask questions so I can perfect this method.
Hi all, i am feb 2021 AOR FSW O, jas anyone from feb 2021 with eligibility passed?
I have not ordered gcms notes but thinking of ordering one. When is the best time to order gcms notes?
I am just concerned about my eligibility
I have not ordered gcms notes but thinking of ordering one. When is the best time to order gcms notes?
I am just concerned about my eligibility
ZAtoCD
Champion Member
- Nov 3, 2019
- 1,329
- Category........
- FSW
- Visa Office......
- Ottawa
- NOC Code......
- 1123
It's definitely beyond the point of a "good time to order GCMS notes" (which is usually from around the 3-month post-AoR mark). Go ahead and get them, and let us know if you need any help understanding them.
Thanks buddy. @ZAtoCD actually to be honest, i was waiting for some kind of profile update in my cic account. However i have received none.It's definitely beyond the point of a "good time to order GCMS notes" (which is usually from around the 3-month post-AoR mark). Go ahead and get them, and let us know if you need any help understanding them.
ZAtoCD
Champion Member
- Nov 3, 2019
- 1,329
- Category........
- FSW
- Visa Office......
- Ottawa
- NOC Code......
- 1123
Pleasure! That makes sense.Thanks buddy. @ZAtoCD actually to be honest, i was waiting for some kind of profile update in my cic account. However i have received none.
Sometimes quite a lot happens behind the scenes without any changes to the EE profile, so it could be nice to order notes and perhaps get some extra info. Do you already know how?How?? Probably by ordering GCMSPleasure! That makes sense.
Thanks bud. I guess you are post AOR and waiting for PPR right??
ZAtoCD
Champion Member
- Nov 3, 2019
- 1,329
- Category........
- FSW
- Visa Office......
- Ottawa
- NOC Code......
- 1123
Yes, I just meant the process of ordering GCMS notes. You can get them from companies like GCMSBuddy and GetGCMS, or through a Canadian via an AITP request.
Yup, I'm a July 2020 AoR who is waiting for security to begin. All my info is in my signature.
If you have never ordered one before, go ahead and get one at the least you can know where your file is being processed and when was the file last processed.
Most Feb AOR including me have not got the eligibility started and it would be interesting to know what's happening post Sept 7th.
Ya even i am thinking the same. Thinking to order in October, once this border opening and elections are all set.
Really dont know what IRCC is upto. My sister and my brother in law both are canadian PR. Still it does not Expedite the process. Its like already 7 months. I was expecting something by this time. But its all in vain.
Received GCMS notes (exactly 30 days ) - shows everything is passed and final decision - approved. Also could see COPR details (I hope it is a good sign)...shows that they started creating my COPR on August 31 so lets see how long will it take them to send email now....oh and shows file trsnefed to Etobicoke now
) - shows everything is passed and final decision - approved. Also could see COPR details (I hope it is a good sign)...shows that they started creating my COPR on August 31 so lets see how long will it take them to send email now....oh and shows file trsnefed to Etobicoke nowFSWs have not really been processed further post the lock down. We are hoping that sept 7th will be the golden day.
Please what stream are you under? OUTLAND OR INLAND?Received GCMS notes (exactly 30 days