Damascus/Spousal since Jan 2010 or late 2009

[alish]

lol it just happened today.. its a certificate thing.. its fine it takes u exactly to the login page

we are brave persians i guess lol

Mary jan im also hoping the same thing as sepiide is saying inshala that would be the case for everyone

good luck

...but if its not recommended how come you still continue with it..some really brave brave persian ppl here
sepide jun....I am hoping the samething...

 

[cyrus56]

They have certificate problem ... just allow it or make an exception for the certificate and you can login.
I'm getting that message today as well

Dear Toronto88
The averages you have calculated seem to highly underestimate the waiting periods. You are systematically miss the data of whom have not been passport requested yet. This may lead to a false hope among us. I am using the same data you've provided, but just see what the averages of the application-to-ppr (AtP) and in process-to-ppr (PtP) are for 2012 in accordance with my analysis. However, the number of events for 2012 is low and is not reliable:

AtP: 337 [95%CI: 309-365] days (my analysis) 256 days (yours)
PtP: 245 [95%CI: 191-299] days (my analysis) 112 days (yours)

I hesitated to put my results forward because I know how they can be altered by any new results for 2012 applicants. However, as you see, the absolute averages you have calculated are even far below the lower limits of the confidence intervals.

 

[goli]

Hi everybody,

Do you guys know how many visa officers work in Ankara and how many worked in Damascus? I know so many people in Damascus that got their ppr on average around 11 months. But at the same time I heard that the number of officers in Ankara are much more so we should be able to estimate approximately the time difference and have an educated guess how long our applications are going to take to complete!

The data in spreadsheet doesn't seem to follow a uniform distribution. The high variance in data makes
the averages not to be realistic. Some people got their PPR so fast (less than 3 months) after going to in-process state and some others took them much much longer and some still waiting. So I am not sure just a simple average can tell us a realistic estimate. We need a better statistical parameter for this totally random behavior.

Goli

 

[cyrus56]

They have certificate problem ... just allow it or make an exception for the certificate and you can login.
I'm getting that message today as well

Analyzing the data for 2011 applicants, I obtained these results as well:
AtP: 438 [95% CI: 408-468] days
PtP: 203 [95% CI: 195-211] days
To be more specific, the results you are seeing for 2011 are medians and the results for 2012 are means while median was not calculable for 2012 due to the low number of PPRs.
The overall estimation for all applicants is here:
AtP: 430 [95% CI: 389-470] days
PtP: 199 [95% CI: 177-221] days

 

[Toronto88]

Dear Toronto88
The averages you have calculated seem to highly underestimate the waiting periods. You are systematically miss the data of whom have not been passport requested yet. This may lead to a false hope among us. I am using the same data you've provided, but just see what the averages of the application-to-ppr (AtP) and in process-to-ppr (PtP) are for 2012 in accordance with my analysis. However, the number of events for 2012 is low and is not reliable:

AtP: 337 [95%CI: 309-365] days (my analysis) 256 days (yours)
PtP: 245 [95%CI: 191-299] days (my analysis) 112 days (yours)

I hesitated to put my results forward because I know how they can be altered by any new results for 2012 applicants. However, as you see, the absolute averages you have calculated are even far below the lower limits of the confidence intervals.

You are absolutely correct. My average calculations simply uses the data of those who have been PPR'ed and doesn't take into consideration people who are waiting. These averages will definitely increase as soon as we have the Jan-Feb applicants PPR'ed. Plus the number of cases that we are using for our calculations is too little which makes the calculation not representative ... I've hidden the average calculations from the spreadsheet as they are very unscientific. I definitely don't want to give people false hopes :-X

Thanks for pointing this out. I was hesitant about removing these calculations but you got me convinced.

 

[Toronto88]

You must choose 4A because your file is still being processed. Just write your file number (Fxxxxxxx). 4C is for getting the electronic files once the processing is completed, i.e. after one got his citizenship, PR, etc.

Did you request urs using this option? I'm just looking at the request form and the explanation for 4A and 4C are as follows:

4A: Status of an application: You will receive a few lines indicating the status of your pending application.

4C: Electronic files: you will receive the requested immigration or citizenship files as is found in CIC's electronic systems.

I have a feeling a few lines is just what they have on eCAS!!! Don't you think 4C sounds like the kinda thing everyone's been receiving here?

 

[mahdiaryafar]

Hi guys

I'm just thinking why they stopped PPR sending again. My opinion is they planned limited visa for every months. Hopefully its true
Any idea??!!

 

[Toronto88]

Hi guys

I'm just thinking why they stopped PPR sending again. My opinion is they planned limited visa for every months. Hopefully its true
Any idea??!!

my idea: they are working on new apps

 

[alish]

well this is how i see it...
the people who have gone in process are almost all on the background security checks, and as we have found out in this forum those checks are done by a different organization not by CIC, therefore the officers whose files are waiting for the secrurity background checks cant do much but wait for reports, so they start working on new applications recently recieved by Ankara, and when they do get any results in they finalize what they have...and issue the pprs... so technically i think its not the Anakara employees who are being lazy or not doing their jobs... im sure they want to get these apps out of the way asap... its the other organization with the security background checks that are taking long, so Ankara is im sure 100% working, they may not be issuing PPrs but that doesnt mean they are not doing other steps on our applications..

I would also think the officers who have issued some pprs recently have a lesser load of files to be working on so they would be the ones getting the newer applications...

that sounds kind of logical i guess...

so we need to be positive they are working hard soon we will all have some good news.. and i dont think they have certain quotas for the month thats not logical at all.. we shouldnt make assumptions like that and get people stressed out again ...


good luck

my idea: they are working on new apps

 

[cyrus56]

Hi guys

I'm just thinking why they stopped PPR sending again. My opinion is they planned limited visa for every months. Hopefully its true
Any idea??!!

I agree with you. Except for the December (the last month of a year), I assume they have limits for issuing visas for each month. Therefore, good news are more probable to be heard in the first 2 weeks of each month. They also are mostly heard in the first 6-8 months of each year. However, just 55 of us are here and due to my assumption there must be almost 500-2000 family class-spouse category in Ankara each year! So, whatever it is, we are a very short sample size of the whole and cannot represent the VO's outcome.

 

[hbehmane]

You must choose 4A because your file is still being processed. Just write your file number (Fxxxxxxx). 4C is for getting the electronic files once the processing is completed, i.e. after one got his citizenship, PR, etc.

well my wife hasn't gotten her ppr the time i've order it so im positive he should choose 4c, but again it's up 2 him. now he's confused with lot's of opinion.

 

[Güzelyol]

Did you request urs using this option? I'm just looking at the request form and the explanation for 4A and 4C are as follows:

4A: Status of an application: You will receive a few lines indicating the status of your pending application.

4C: Electronic files: you will receive the requested immigration or citizenship files as is found in CIC's electronic systems.

I have a feeling a few lines is just what they have on eCAS!!! Don't you think 4C sounds like the kinda thing everyone's been receiving here?

When I requested mine, the form was a bit different. Also, there was no explanation for any of the options, so I've chosen to receive the status of our application in electronic format, by email. And I got our GSMC notes. If you are unsure, check 4C and attach a Post-it to the form saying you want to get your GSMC notes.

The previous form had two main sections: electronic files & paper files, under which you could choose something more specific (I'd chosen status of application under electronic files). The new form doesn't let you make this selection, so I guess 4C is now the right one to choose. They seem unable to produce a form that would be easy to understand!

 

[Toronto88]

When I requested mine, the form was a bit different. Also, there was no explanation for any of the options, so I've chosen to receive the status of our application in electronic format, by email. And I got our GSMC notes. If you are unsure, check 4C and attach a Post-it to the form saying you want to get your GSMC notes.

The previous form had two main sections: electronic files & paper files, under which you could choose something more specific (I'd chosen status of application under electronic files). The new form doesn't let you make this selection, so I guess 4C is now the right one to choose. They seem unable to produce a form that would be easy to understand!

Yes I was very confused! I ended up choosing 4C and I think it's the right one. You are so right about CIC's inability to make a straight forward forms! There are always one or two tricky questions! I don't know why they do this. Maybe they wanna test our IQ ;D
Anways let's see how this goes. Thank you and hbehmane

 

[mamad2020]

Hi everybody,

Do you guys know how many visa officers work in Ankara and how many worked in Damascus? I know so many people in Damascus that got their ppr on average around 11 months. But at the same time I heard that the number of officers in Ankara are much more so we should be able to estimate approximately the time difference and have an educated guess how long our applications are going to take to complete!

The data in spreadsheet doesn't seem to follow a uniform distribution. The high variance in data makes
the averages not to be realistic. Some people got their PPR so fast (less than 3 months) after going to in-process state and some others took them much much longer and some still waiting. So I am not sure just a simple average can tell us a realistic estimate. We need a better statistical parameter for this totally random behavior.

Goli

Hi Goli,
I completely agree with you. I originally created my own estimate and realized no data is reliable because everybody on that sheet are "outliars". This is because everyone's circumstances are different so the timelines doesn't follow a unified path. Some people have travelled more and their background checks will last longer. Some people have more complicated files, e.g. they didn't provide enough photos or documents and they require an interview. Even some people may need to have their documents checked for authenticity.
And one wild guess, some files are picked up by random from their unprocessed box!
But my wild estimate of PPR is about 4-6 months if there are no issues with the files.

 

[mamad2020]

well this is how i see it...
the people who have gone in process are almost all on the background security checks, and as we have found out in this forum those checks are done by a different organization not by CIC, therefore the officers whose files are waiting for the secrurity background checks cant do much but wait for reports, so they start working on new applications recently recieved by Ankara, and when they do get any results in they finalize what they have...and issue the pprs... so technically i think its not the Anakara employees who are being lazy or not doing their jobs... im sure they want to get these apps out of the way asap... its the other organization with the security background checks that are taking long, so Ankara is im sure 100% working, they may not be issuing PPrs but that doesnt mean they are not doing other steps on our applications..

I would also think the officers who have issued some pprs recently have a lesser load of files to be working on so they would be the ones getting the newer applications...

that sounds kind of logical i guess...

so we need to be positive they are working hard soon we will all have some good news.. and i dont think they have certain quotas for the month thats not logical at all.. we shouldnt make assumptions like that and get people stressed out again ...


good luck

Yes I completely agree! I think VOs there are working very hard. Let's not forget that there are also thousands of economic immigration apps and temporary visitor visas and student visas that they have to deal with as well in this office. I get really happy when some people get their applications in process or receive PPRs. It means that my turn to receive my in process status is coming near
But I should disagree about the quota thing. I also think that they have a quota for the number of apps per year. So it's not per month. That's why most PPRs are received in the first half of the year. But nobody here should worry about it because according to my estimation almost all of us will get our PPRs by August inshallah To back up my claim, I read the quota thing in a CBC article few months ago. They have a quota for economic applicants, family class, etc. But it's not a big deal at all because family class have a big quota. like 30,000 per year I think...