30th Express entry draw predictions

[GARJ]

I would think that maybe they'd do 3 rounds of 1K a month, so maybe we get another one next week back-to-back. The target is 59K Skilled immigrant this year, so my guess would be that they would do 3 rounds of 1k a month just for good measure. Scores of 470+ are high, that's why this week we saw a decrease of 4 points from the last draw. It's now safe to assume that a score of 475+ has the highest chance of an ITA without the need of a PNP or LMIA. Scores below that are still uncertain.

This looks really unfortunate for international students like myself who have it near impossible to reach those scores. I am currently at 447, waited a year in the pool and didn't get an ITA. Thankfully I completed a bachelor's degree recently and once I receive the ECA my score will go up to 477. My advice to anyone below 470 is if you really want to have a sure hit application, you need to find any way possible to get that score above 470, even if it means getting another degree or re-taking tests; anything below that score has shown to be uncertain up to this point.

 

[MZASAM]

<<<<ITA's>>>>CRS

Seems the trend is bound to continue from all the IRCC news updates and the numbers firmly reflect the policies for 2016.

All speculation, guesses, are proving wrong.

IRCC has not declared it's annual report; even this quarter is ending.

I am waiting to hear from Asivad, other senior members of this forum.

Well, we all worked hard, maintained our CRS; not good enough to secure an ITA.

There are limitations to enhance the CRS; not all of us can achieve, CLB 9, 10, be a masters, have the expected work experience as defined by IRCC

have settlement funds and fulfil the criterion. The OINP, other provinces has depressed the aspirants due to lack of information.

Let's all be optimistic and pursue the goals.

Good luck to all members who got an ITA.

 

[RamsayBolton]

I would think that maybe they'd do 3 rounds of 1K a month, so maybe we get another one next week back-to-back. The target is 59K Skilled immigrant this year, so my guess would be that they would do 3 rounds of 1k a month just for good measure. Scores of 470+ are high, that's why this week we saw a decrease of 4 points from the last draw. It's now safe to assume that a score of 475+ has the highest chance of an ITA without the need of a PNP or LMIA. Scores below that are still uncertain.

This looks really unfortunate for international students like myself who have it near impossible to reach those scores. I am currently at 447, waited a year in the pool and didn't get an ITA. Thankfully I completed a bachelor's degree recently and once I receive the ECA my score will go up to 477. My advice to anyone below 470 is if you really want to have a sure hit application, you need to find any way possible to get that score above 470, even if it means getting another degree or re-taking tests; anything below that score has shown to be uncertain up to this point.

Why would they make three 1k draws per month?? 59k is not only for skilled workers but also for CEC as well, not like last year when SW and CEC had separate quota of 51k and 23k, respectively.

 

[GARJ]

Why would they make three 1k draws per month?? 59k is not only for skilled workers but also for CEC as well, not like last year when SW and CEC had separate quota of 51k and 23k, respectively.

Because having 3 1K draws is more stable than having 2 1.5k draws if you ask me. Last year they had a 23K quota specifically for CEC that they weren't even close to meeting because of the nature of express entry, that's why this year they didn't divide express entry applicants into groups, it's just one group called High Skills. In 2013 the quota for CEC was around 25K and only around 7K CEC applicants were approved, in 2014 the quota was around 20K too and only 8K applicant were approved, and going by the mid year report, only 5.5K CEC applicants were accepted as at July 2015 in Express Entry. So CIC slashing the quota for CEC does nothing really, they are gonna do the same thing they did last year, except instead of inviting 3K a month in 2 draws, they gonna spread it out between 3. That's my theory.

 

[tomjaz004]

Because having 3 1K draws is more stable than having 2 1.5k draws if you ask me. Last year they had a 23K quota specifically for CEC that they weren't even close to meeting because of the nature of express entry, that's why this year they didn't divide express entry applicants into groups, it's just one group called High Skills. In 2013 the quota for CEC was around 25K and only around 7K CEC applicants were approved, in 2014 the quota was around 20K too and only 8K applicant were approved, and going by the mid year report, only 5.5K CEC applicants were accepted as at July 2015 in Express Entry. So CIC slashing the quota for CEC does nothing really, they are gonna do the same thing they did last year, except instead of inviting 3K a month in 2 draws, they gonna spread it out between 3. That's my theory.

Bro your theory looks inspiring but believe me they didn't set sufficient target this year. They clearly said that from target of 59K almost half of the applications goes to the EE2016. That means around 30K invitations allotted for Federal Economic stream (FSW, FST and CEC). As till now they have already issued almost 10K invitation that mean only 20K left with 9 months to go. 20/9 = 2.2 means about 2.2K invitations per month which means no possibility of 3 draws

 

[necie12888]

Agreed. It is unfair to give people hope when actually without a perfect IELTS score and a Masters degree, assuming you are young enough, you don't stand a chance.

My age (39) is not helping at all. I have a Masters and good IELTS results. *sigh* 423

 

[drkv78]

Hi,

This time also ITA is again up and stands at 470.

Number of invitations: ~1000 only... :-X :-X

 

[Talitha Koum]

US Elections and the result of Trump leading will cause the total ITA to be issues around 1000- mostly till November.
Anti- Trump sentiment will lead to lot of American immigrants migrating to Canada.
The next few draws will be around the 460-470 permitting only 1000 ITA

 

[cyt0plas]

US Elections and the result of Trump leading will cause the total ITA to be issues around 1000- mostly till November.
Anti- Trump sentiment will lead to lot of American immigrants migrating to Canada.
The next few draws will be around the 460-470 permitting only 1000 ITA

This has nothing to do with Trump. If there is an influx of US immigrants, that will mean that the quality and score of immigrants goes up, not that the number of ITAs goes down.

 

[RamsayBolton]

Because having 3 1K draws is more stable than having 2 1.5k draws if you ask me. Last year they had a 23K quota specifically for CEC that they weren't even close to meeting because of the nature of express entry, that's why this year they didn't divide express entry applicants into groups, it's just one group called High Skills. In 2013 the quota for CEC was around 25K and only around 7K CEC applicants were approved, in 2014 the quota was around 20K too and only 8K applicant were approved, and going by the mid year report, only 5.5K CEC applicants were accepted as at July 2015 in Express Entry. So CIC slashing the quota for CEC does nothing really, they are gonna do the same thing they did last year, except instead of inviting 3K a month in 2 draws, they gonna spread it out between 3. That's my theory.

What do you mean by saying "stable" ? what is more stable? Two 1.5k draws are the same as three 1k draws, IRCC agents have to do the same amount of work. With the quota is now 20,000+ less, there's no way IRCC is going to keep up the number of itas for each month. If anything happens, they will decrease the itas like we are already seeing now. Moreover, they are not slashing CEC only, they slash the whole economic stream by merging CEC and FSW into one, so both programs all suffer from less itas.

 

[abhii]

They are delaying the draws because they don't have candidates having good score. If they do frequent draws than the points will drop down to 400 and immigration department does not want to drop down the points. They want to show a big image that they are giving ITAs to eligible candidates but my dear immigration department your selection system is totally wrong as per my knowledge. The previous immigration policy was best than the current one. Previous policy makes you analyze that the candidates belong Finance, Engi, IT or other fields. This was helping to fill up the required labour. But now with this current system, no one knows ....

 

[_Aspirant]

Looks like have to work hard to get more qualifying score.... :-X

 

[twztedelegance]

US Elections and the result of Trump leading will cause the total ITA to be issues around 1000- mostly till November.
Anti- Trump sentiment will lead to lot of American immigrants migrating to Canada.
The next few draws will be around the 460-470 permitting only 1000 ITA

as long as its within 460-470 and doesnt start rising again, i am at 469 and really need that ITA and PR or i dont know what i will do, i have lived in canada for the better part of 7 years and dont want to go back to India

 

[anti_maniac]

as long as its within 460-470 and doesnt start rising again, i am at 469 and really need that ITA and PR or i dont know what i will do, i have lived in canada for the better part of 7 years and dont want to go back to India

did you recently created a profile? as the score has been lower than 460 for some of earlier draws to my knowledge...if you just created it, have patience am sure you would get ITA very soon...if you have been sitting there and waiting for long, i cant imagine why ....as to my understanding everybody on and above cutoff gets an invite ( there is no further filtering if your score is above cutoff)