So the roller-coaster is climbing its first hill, chugging up the track very slowly . . . would it make sense to calculate its speed at this stage and based on that estimate how long it will take to reach the end of the ride? No. No where near close.
We are in the midst of a very serious crisis and unprecedented efforts to navigate our way forward.
IRCC offers timeline information for citizenship applications (different methods are used for different processes) based on how long it took to process most (meaning at least one more than half) *routinely* processed applications during a previous YEAR's time. Even that, even in normal times, tends to be less informative than is helpful (in the past, CIC used to provide information about how long it took to process 20%, 50%, and 80% of cases, which offered significantly more insight into the variability of timelines for different individuals).
But we are no longer anywhere near normal times. How things have gone in prior years offers little insight into how things will go in the next year or two.
So, any effort to RATIONALLY, REASONABLY estimate how long current and new citizenship applications will take to process and reach the oath, will itself have to WAIT . . . first, to WAIT long enough for IRCC to address and adapt and adopt revised methodologies, which it is clear they are engaged in doing (that is, wait until, at the least, this particular roller-coaster has reached the summit of the first big hill, so to say) . . . and then WAIT to see how things go after substantial efforts have been implemented to facilitate application processing notwithstanding the burdens and hurdles this crisis imposes. It will take awhile. A year? Maybe longer.
Measuring the speed of things now, at the steepest grade in the first hill, and presenting an estimate of how long things might take based on that, is outright MISINFORMATION. It does border on fear-mongering.
And of course, all indications point in the direction of IRCC exploring, analyzing, designing, testing, and implementing methodologies which will enable it to at least partially resume processing, in the relative near term (with some real progress, perhaps, by the end of the year, though perhaps not until early next YEAR), anticipating also resuming near normal processing eventually (hopefully by some time later in the next year). This will take time.
Which will not give those chanting the "are we there yet?" refrain what, it seems, they want, which is more akin to immediate gratification.
There is little or no immediate gratification in the forecast.
True. But most Canadians, including Canadian PRs who are on a path to become Canadian-citizens-in-fact (not in getting citizenship just for the status and passport), take into consideration a lot, lot more than what they individually have at stake. That is, what more than a few here are concerned about is not their own personal interests but the impact on others as well.
It may be mere coincidence, despite the smell, but it seems that more than a few of those most adamantly pressing the government to give citizenship application processing a higher priority have motivation rooted in personal international travel needs or expectations. Not exactly what looms large when sociologists catalog attributes of good "citizenship."
Otherwise, with isolated exceptions, there is no rush. And those whose approach is more citizen-in-practice, not so much what-is-in-it-for-me, readily recognize that MPs, MPPs, government staff, and local government leaders and officials, have a lot on their plate right now dealing with no shortage of problems in providing essential services and engaging in efforts to otherwise balance protecting the public's health during a pandemic while trying to help the country resume social, economic, political, and educational activities, struggling to avoid a major and potentially catastrophic breakdown. (There seems to be a lot of I-ain't-suffering so this cannot really be that big a crisis, so what's the problem, attitude these days; make no mistake, Covid-19 is a crisis, worldwide in scope, potentially catastrophic but for extensive and intensive measures to navigate the country through this storm. Time for many to emerge from their narcissistic bubbles and see the reality beyond self-interest.)
There are reports about other countries doing better with this or that, including immigration and citizenship. There are, however, plenty of reports about other countries doing a lot, lot worse. This forum has seen reports about how the U.S. is handling some of the citizenship stuff SUPPOSEDLY better than Canada, but there is no doubt, the U.S. is currently not a laudable example of immigration-related policies, not even close, and otherwise the U.S. is among those countries whose performance in this pandemic ranks at the poorest end of the scale, and perhaps is either the worst or next to the worst (Brazil seems on track for its indigenous populations to suffer on a near genocide scale).
Canada has some unique characteristics which pose particular challenges and present particular opportunities, making international comparisons tricky. Despite those few here who gratuitously insult Canadians whose vocation is in service to Canadian immigrants, the odds are good that IRCC personnel are doing their best to address the current crisis and get services back on track as much as they reasonably can. And the majority of qualified citizenship applicants can probably be confident that despite the setbacks and problems, IRCC will pursue its mandate dutifully and in due course. Which, unfortunately, is going to take a good long while given the situation.
As I have said elsewhere, I am confident that scores and scores recognize the nature of these times and are being patient, doing their part to help not hinder. I applaud them. I am confident that many, probably most visitors to this forum, and most participants, belong to this latter group. Those who know and behave like we are all in this together. And again, I want to acknowledge them, their patience, their fortitude, their commitment to becoming citizens in fact not just in status.
