Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[Carmen01]

I have coffee and pastries...anyone care to join me?
You all please continue with the analysis, I want to see something.

 

[ns317]

1 - at that time, the CEC candidates above 470 kept leaving the pool every 2 weeks. Also, IELTS were not available everywhere. That’s why it remained “under control” even with 6 months of CEC only draws.
2 - The reason for 478 is a mix of a 3 week buffer in the pool (something that didn’t happen in any of the CEC/PNP draws), and specially, the 1000 PNPs. Previous draws were ranging from 300-500 PNPs, this one had 1000!
3 - Again, official data from IRCC: only 4% of candidates in the pool speak French, less than 2.8% of candidates that get PR speak French, probably half of these 2.8% are not bilingual, but actually people who came from French-speaking countries with no much knowledge of English. That means, let’s say, 1.5% of the candidates who received ITAs in 2019 were bilingual. That’s a very small number. Add to that the fact that those who were bilingual already had 30 bonus points before the change in the CRS Criteria. It’s very unlikely these candidates weren’t already at the upper 480’s. Myself, being bilingual in French and English, received my ITA sitting at 508 (would be 528 in the new criteria). You see? For these candidates, these 20 extra points really didn’t matter.

Half of 2.8% is probably too generous a share for those who are bilingual. I’d estimate it to be 20% of 2.8% at most.

The additional ITAs granted due to the points change would be trivial, barely enough to increase the CRS by even 1 point. Even a super high estimate of 10% of all ITAs last draw, or 450 out of 4500, seems unlikely, which is approximately what’s needed to increase the CRS by 1 point in the 470s.

 

[abqalhamairi]

1 - at that time, the CEC candidates above 470 kept leaving the pool every 2 weeks. Also, IELTS were not available everywhere. That’s why it remained “under control” even with 6 months of CEC only draws.
2 - The reason for 478 is a mix of a 3 week buffer in the pool (something that didn’t happen in any of the CEC/PNP draws), and specially, the 1000 PNPs. Previous draws were ranging from 300-500 PNPs, this one had 1000!
3 - Again, official data from IRCC: only 4% of candidates in the pool speak French, less than 2.8% of candidates that get PR speak French, probably half of these 2.8% are not bilingual, but actually people who came from French-speaking countries with no much knowledge of English. That means, let’s say, 1.5% of the candidates who received ITAs in 2019 were bilingual. That’s a very small number. Add to that the fact that those who were bilingual already had 30 bonus points before the change in the CRS Criteria. It’s very unlikely these candidates weren’t already at the upper 480’s. Myself, being bilingual in French and English, received my ITA sitting at 508 (would be 528 in the new criteria). You see? For these candidates, these 20 extra points really didn’t matter.

Man! I respect you, but your analysis makes no sense! You are a guy who benefited from the french extra points prior to 20/10/2020 and you are telling me that people like you are way too less to be significant to affect ONE draw?

 

[jrossi]

Man! I respect you, but your analysis makes no sense! You are a guy who benefited from the french extra points prior to 20/10/2020 and you are telling me that people like you are way too less to be significant to affect ONE draw?

Yes, because guys "like me" represent in the most optimistic, completely unrealistic scenario, 2.8% of all the ITAs issued. This is not my opinion, these are IRCC official statistics from the 2019 report. Ok?
In reality, we're probably talking about less than 1.5% of the ITAs issued (once we consider that not all french speakers are english speakers as well).
And again, from these 1.5% (or 2.8% if you prefer to consider an impossible scenario), the vast majority were already above 470-480, because the combination of english and french really skyrockets your CRS score. These 20 extra points did almost nothing to those who already had bilingual bonus. They just jumped from 480's to 500's. Basically: they would be called in the next draw anyway, with or without the extra points. Therefore, no impact in the cutoff.

The bonus was created to promote french, to make people consider french as a viable path for PR, not to help those who already were at the very top of the CRS because they already had the 30 (actually 42) extra points from french.

 

[jrossi]

Man! I respect you, but your analysis makes no sense! You are a guy who benefited from the french extra points prior to 20/10/2020 and you are telling me that people like you are way too less to be significant to affect ONE draw?

It's really important to understand that maybe sometimes people overestimate how many candidates actually get CLB9 in english and CLB7 in french. In an sample of 90.000 ITAs issued annually, we're probably talking about 1.300 candidates that are within that profile (or even less). If you take that number and divide it by the average number of 26 draws per year, you arrive at the incredible number of 50 bilinguals per draw. In conclusion: bilinguals are really irrelevant in the overall size of the draws and the pool. PNPs play a much bigger impact.
That may change in the future (6-12 months), due to the new stimulus for french speakers. Also, it turns out that MANY MANY MANY people didn't even know that they could earn bonus points if they achieved CLB7 in french, prior to the Mendicino announcement. Now that they know, I certainly believe french speakers will start to arise in percentage in the pool throughout 2021.

 

[nikhilkbhat]

Yes, because guys "like me" represent in the most optimistic, completely unrealistic scenario, 2.8% of all the ITAs issued. This is not my opinion, these are IRCC official statistics from the 2019 report. Ok?
In reality, we're probably talking about less than 1.5% of the ITAs issued (once we consider that not all french speakers are english speakers as well).
And again, from these 1.5% (or 2.8% if you prefer to consider an impossible scenario), the vast majority were already above 470-480, because the combination of english and french really skyrockets your CRS score. These 20 extra points did almost nothing to those who already had bilingual bonus. They just jumped from 480's to 500's. Basically: they would be called in the next draw anyway, with or without the extra points. Therefore, no impact in the cutoff.

The bonus was created to promote french, to make people consider french as a viable path for PR, not to help those who already were at the very top of the CRS because they already had the 30 (actually 42) extra points from french.

Just a doubt.. the 2.8% of ITAs issued doesn't account for the bilingual applicants with scores lower than the earlier cut-offs due to different reasons such as age or work experience.. while I agree that the number would not be significant, the bonus points would help some people cross that mark

 

[jrossi]

Half of 2.8% is probably too generous a share for those who are bilingual. I’d estimate it to be 20% of 2.8% at most.

The additional ITAs granted due to the points change would be trivial, barely enough to increase the CRS by even 1 point. Even a super high estimate of 10% of all ITAs last draw, or 450 out of 4500, seems unlikely, which is approximately what’s needed to increase the CRS by 1 point in the 470s.

Yes, I do agree with you. Yet, I prefer to play with a conservative estimate, to consider the "worst" possible scenario (for those who don't speak french).

 

[jrossi]

Just a doubt.. the 2.8% of ITAs issued doesn't account for the bilingual applicants with scores lower than the earlier cut-offs due to different reasons such as age or work experience.. while I agree that the number would not be significant, the bonus points would help some people cross that mark

The problem is: for someone with a CLB9 in English and CLB7 in french to be out of the 460+, they would need to either be well above 40yr old, or have zero professional experience (in Canada ou anywhere else).
We might find a dozen of profiles in that range? Sure. Enough to impact the score? No.

Try for yourself, open the calculator and try to create a profile with CLB9 in english and CLB7 in french that goes below 460 (so that with the +20 points, they would enter the 478 zone).
And then question yourself how likely it is for someone who had pursued proficiency in these 2 languages to actually have that "weak" profile.

 

[nikhilkbhat]

The problem is: for someone with a CLB9 in English and CLB7 in french to be out of the 460+, they would need to either be well above 40yr old, or have zero professional experience (in Canada ou anywhere else).
We might find a dozen of profiles in that range? Sure. Enough to impact the score? No.

Try for yourself, open the calculator and try to create a profile with CLB9 in english and CLB7 in french that goes below 460 (so that with the +20 points, they would enter the 478 zone).
And then question yourself how likely it is for someone who had pursued proficiency in these 2 languages to actually have that "weak" profile.

Like I said, the number will not be significant.. it'll help a few.. and Yes, it's not enough to keep the scores high..

 

[Carmen01]

Side note...Biden is officially President so I guess less contenders for Canada.
alright then, carry on.

 

[Sweetyblaise]

I think jrossi wants everyone to learn French like he/she did. So please go and learn French so all the arguments can end. It's getting old.

 

[Floof]

Side note...Biden is officially President so I guess less contenders for Canada.
alright then, carry on.

Hahahaah Carmen, as much as I don't want to keep up with these useless speculations and calculations, I cannot stop coming back to see what you keep posting.

 

[Carmen01]

Hahahaah Carmen, as much as I don't want to keep up with these useless speculations and calculations, I cannot stop coming back to see what you keep posting.

Hahahaha, I don’t mind the projections though. I know some people act like it doesn’t matter if this passes them but I am kinda fixated at this point. It’s now like a personal challenge I want to see to the end hence my curiosity and the drama leading up to me declining an ITA ,missing last week’s draw just makes it even more intriguing for me.

The banter is good

 

[Floof]

Hahahaha, I don’t mind the projections though. I know some people act like it doesn’t matter if this passes them but I am kinda fixated at this point. It’s now like a personal challenge I want to see to the end hence my curiosity and the drama leading up to me declining an ITA ,missing last week’s draw just makes it even more intriguing for me.

The banter is good

I know! I have been advised against using this portal to keep my mental peace intact, and even though none of the projections done here ever come true (during the extreme times) I still cannot keep myself from coming back. It's a toxic relationship, but I guess I cannot end it right now

 

[jrossi]

I think jrossi wants everyone to learn French like he/she did. So please go and learn French so all the arguments can end. It's getting old.

No, I want people to improve their scores. Whether they'll do it through a second diploma, through re-doing IELTS, learning french... it's all up to them. I just want you guys to remember that back in January I read A TON of people saying to me that 469 would be Ok, and that "in no way the score wouldn't drop". If I had given attention to these "optimistics", I wouldn't have received my ITA.
I really think it's extremely irresponsible when people give that sort of advice "don't worry, you're safe at 470, it's going down for sure". It freaks me out. Until the day you guarantee your ITA, you should look for ways to improve your score, or accept the fact that you might never receive it.