Yeah, say 10000 every fortnight. Okay, can you tell me where Everything is opening up?
Have you visited Indian Universities now and do you really know that Indian Universities are welcoming people and handing them transcripts the way they used to give before.
Are you confident that every Tom, Dick, and Harry is able to write IELTS throughout the world?
Majority of the 470s, I would say are from the US (H1B Indians), and can you show me proof of IELTS happening in any state, county, or town in the US?
Do you think WES, CES, IQAS, ICES staff have all resumed their in-office operations? If yes is the answer, read this mate -
https://learn.utoronto.ca/comparative-education-service-apply-now/ces-covid-19-updates
https://www.bcit.ca/ices/processing-time/
More than all, Pencil/Paper IELTS (which houses 70% of dudes compared to CD IELTS) has not resumed anywhere in the world and even the CD IELTS that is running in few towns/Cities are often subjected to rescheduling (telling from the experiences of my friends). British Council has not resumed its operations anywhere on this planet Earth
Only possibility to get the ECA assessed sooner is by sending WES/CES/IQAS a digital transcript (from the university end) which is not possible with every Indian University now (except Mumbai University and few private autonomous universities).
Okay, let me talk about shipping - Indian post/Speed post has resumed their operations a week ago and even if speed post service was hired, it may now take few more weeks for border clearance and if the transcript somehow reaches the ECA, it would be kept in the reception until the staff come to office (likely by October)
Remember, when there was everything as usual, nearly 10K people can write IELTS every day worldwide. Now not even 5% of them can write or will be able to write the exam because of these factors - Many are stranded, Few really are short of money, No public transport yet, Many states/Cities, Zones still under lockdown, Many not venturing to write IELTS (on a survey), IDP often rescheduling exams and more than all, everybody writing IELTS are not writing General but Academic as well equally, British Council has not yet resumed their operations (as said earlier)
So a BIG NO that there will 4K or 5k (or whatever Ks) will be joining the pool. Mate, India is 3rd in the list of countries affected worst by COVID and no state is really returning to normalcy here.
Situation in the US is damn deadly and IELTS is not planning to host exams at least the next two months. Many of my friends in the US (H1B) are extremely eager to write the exam but not even one center is open throughout the US. Even Universities there are shut and are not allowing candidates to enter unless they are staff or it is extremely essential. Maybe few Universities send transcripts online to WES but again, not every University would do this service at this alarming situation.
My theory - Score will plummet to 460s and possibly to the higher 450s until October and will undoubtedly surge post-October.
My Prediction :
July 22 - 470 to 472
Aug 5 - 466 to 470
Aug 19 - 460 to 465
Sep 2 - 457 to 461
My above prediction is assuming that IRCC Invites 3.9k dudes every fortnight
Once the existing backlog of 11000 dudes is cleared (460 and above), the cut-off will linger between the 455 to 465 range. Would not be of much impact by then even if 1000 dudes with 470 get into the pool. But yes, after October, 470 plus will undoubtedly be the new normal.
460s - get everything ready
450s - wait a bit and you too are not far
