Ray of hope - FSW - 1
- Thread starter Jatt2canada
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^ This post is one with good raw data.
We should be considering the trends of the last 2 draws or so, and not from before when we were in the middle of pandemic shut-downs and authorities were fumbling. Things are certainly moving much faster now with all parties involved processing requirements faster than they used to from March to May.
Over the last two-week period between draws, there was an increase of ~920 profiles in the pool from 470+. HOWEVER, this only represents the inflow of FSW candidates because the CEC additions would have been picked up in the draw and wouldn't be reflected in the pool numbers. We know from IRCC reports that CEC candidates form 60-70% of the pool in the 470+ range. So the total inflow can be extrapolated to be approximately 2,200 with 2,500 as a highly conservative estimate.
Over the two-week period before that, the equivalent number was 410 for FSW profiles, so approx. 1,200 for all profiles combined.
Over the two-week period before that, it was ~900 again for FSW, so maybe 2,200 for all profiles combined.
So there's a good chance there would be 2,500 new profiles in the pool between July 8 and July 22 at 470+ scores. With the 4,000 odd profiles left-over in that range, it's likely the cut-off will be 473-475. (I've taken some further approximations for profiles per score to arrive at this range).
For those who have scores that are, say, less than 468 or so, it really is a good idea to try to improve your score by whatever means possible. Because as the data demonstrates, the inflow really isn't down to a trickle. Canada immigration remains extremely popular and there are plenty of people with scores above 470+ entering the pool every day.
That's definitely not going to be an issue - I assume you are the primary applicant and her experience is outside Canada (i.e. it gives you no CRS points).
At the risk of over-generalizing, I believe the scrutiny is really on verifying things that affect eligibility and give you CRS points. If you are paranoid, you can have a short section in your Letter of Explanation explaining what changed from the profile to application.
I did the same thing myself and my processing was relatively painless and took 5 months (despite being a somewhat complicated case with well over a hundred overseas trips, residence and work in 3 countries, and including delay waiting for the IRCC letters to apply for and get Police Certificates after submitting the application).
Hi Guys,
I have a question on having read for two parallel degrees. In such a case, should we explain IRCC with an LOE or is it sufficient to only provide them the WES, degree transcripts and degree certificates for both these degrees?
Similarly in a situation where we work (after the completion of the primary or the 1st degree) while doing a 2nd degree, should I explain in an LOE or is it sufficient to only provide them the WES, degree transcript and degree certificate for the degree and for work, the reference letter, salary slip and other work related documents only?
Appreciate your help and inputs on this. TIA
I have a question on having read for two parallel degrees. In such a case, should we explain IRCC with an LOE or is it sufficient to only provide them the WES, degree transcripts and degree certificates for both these degrees?
Similarly in a situation where we work (after the completion of the primary or the 1st degree) while doing a 2nd degree, should I explain in an LOE or is it sufficient to only provide them the WES, degree transcript and degree certificate for the degree and for work, the reference letter, salary slip and other work related documents only?
Appreciate your help and inputs on this. TIA
I agree, but, the raw data provided by the 2019 IRCC report indicates that the ratio between CEC/FSW in the 470+ range is pretty much 50:50. There were a few draws where FSWs were the majority, and a few where the CECs were the majority (indeed, the CECs usually are the majority). So, maybe 60% CECs at most. But never 70%.
It's also important to notice that the ~900 increase could also be of CECs, not necessarily FSWs. Truth is: we can only guess.
Yet, I expect your explanation will help those people who say "there's no way the score will not deep into the 450-460 territory" understand that things are not as positive as it looks like.
There's hope for a decrease in the score, but nowhere near as drastic as some are expecting.
On my most positive prediction, I think the 469-470 could be achieved on the draw of August 5th. But honestly, for myself, i'm not expecting anything below 470 before August 19th or even September 2nd (considering 3,900 ITAs will be kept)
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Hmm you are right. It’s 475+ where it was 55% CEC. For 470+ it’s 50%. So my highly conservative estimate became even more conservative then. Which means that it’s possible that we could see 472 and then 468/469 in the next two draws.
But it’s too risky to expect the inflow above 470+ to remain at 2,000 per fortnight beyond a month from now. Everything is opening up and I won’t be surprised if the inflow reaches the pre covid levels by late August, which was 4,000 per fortnight.
Who would be such an expert? I am a little confused about my NOC as well, hence want to make sure.
Considering many factors, I believe that scores will once again touch the 460’s but this is dependent on what IRCC wants. A B2B draw will happen and it won’t be for FST draw. The major reason behind the initial spike in scores was because of applicants from the US and not even about those based in India. Awareness of the EE has increased but a lot of factors are stalling people from joining the race. in fact, some people still believe that FSW draw hasn’t resumed. Lolz. Many people also do not want to re write because they believe scores will drop (these were actually some of the reasons behind the previous spike and not just because of new entrants) Things won’t remain same for the time being but humans will adjust. The next couple of draws will give us a clear perspective of where scores will head to.
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Yeah, say 10000 every fortnight. Okay, can you tell me where Everything is opening up?
Have you visited Indian Universities now and do you really know that Indian Universities are welcoming people and handing them transcripts the way they used to give before.
Are you confident that every Tom, Dick, and Harry is able to write IELTS throughout the world?
Majority of the 470s, I would say are from the US (H1B Indians), and can you show me proof of IELTS happening in any state, county, or town in the US?
Do you think WES, CES, IQAS, ICES staff have all resumed their in-office operations? If yes is the answer, read this mate - https://learn.utoronto.ca/comparative-education-service-apply-now/ces-covid-19-updates
https://www.bcit.ca/ices/processing-time/
More than all, Pencil/Paper IELTS (which houses 70% of dudes compared to CD IELTS) has not resumed anywhere in the world and even the CD IELTS that is running in few towns/Cities are often subjected to rescheduling (telling from the experiences of my friends). British Council has not resumed its operations anywhere on this planet Earth
Only possibility to get the ECA assessed sooner is by sending WES/CES/IQAS a digital transcript (from the university end) which is not possible with every Indian University now (except Mumbai University and few private autonomous universities).
Okay, let me talk about shipping - Indian post/Speed post has resumed their operations a week ago and even if speed post service was hired, it may now take few more weeks for border clearance and if the transcript somehow reaches the ECA, it would be kept in the reception until the staff come to office (likely by October)
Remember, when there was everything as usual, nearly 10K people can write IELTS every day worldwide. Now not even 5% of them can write or will be able to write the exam because of these factors - Many are stranded, Few really are short of money, No public transport yet, Many states/Cities, Zones still under lockdown, Many not venturing to write IELTS (on a survey), IDP often rescheduling exams and more than all, everybody writing IELTS are not writing General but Academic as well equally, British Council has not yet resumed their operations (as said earlier)
So a BIG NO that there will 4K or 5k (or whatever Ks) will be joining the pool. Mate, India is 3rd in the list of countries affected worst by COVID and no state is really returning to normalcy here.
Situation in the US is damn deadly and IELTS is not planning to host exams at least the next two months. Many of my friends in the US (H1B) are extremely eager to write the exam but not even one center is open throughout the US. Even Universities there are shut and are not allowing candidates to enter unless they are staff or it is extremely essential. Maybe few Universities send transcripts online to WES but again, not every University would do this service at this alarming situation.
My theory - Score will plummet to 460s and possibly to the higher 450s until October and will undoubtedly surge post-October.
My Prediction :
July 22 - 470 to 472
Aug 5 - 466 to 470
Aug 19 - 460 to 465
Sep 2 - 457 to 461
My above prediction is assuming that IRCC Invites 3.9k dudes every fortnight
Once the existing backlog of 11000 dudes is cleared (460 and above), the cut-off will linger between the 455 to 465 range. Would not be of much impact by then even if 1000 dudes with 470 get into the pool. But yes, after October, 470 plus will undoubtedly be the new normal.
460s - get everything ready
450s - wait a bit and you too are not far
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How do manage to type all these in a short while dude?
i am really curious how u type so fast.
are you a clerical person?
i am really curious how u type so fast.
are you a clerical person?
Hi!
Since you have a similar experience, a quick question - I worked in another country for 89 and 83 days 2 years in a row, those were sort of short term assignments. So after getting my ITA I mentioned those trips under the regular trips section rather than when answering to where I’ve been living during the past 10 years. Now I’m not sure if that’s ok or if I should refill the forms and get a police certificate from that country, too.
Guys, Anyone have any idea on the above? TIAHi Guys,
I have a question on having read for two parallel degrees. In such a case, should we explain IRCC with an LOE or is it sufficient to only provide them the WES, degree transcripts and degree certificates for both these degrees?
Similarly in a situation where we work (after the completion of the primary or the 1st degree) while doing a 2nd degree, should I explain in an LOE or is it sufficient to only provide them the WES, degree transcript and degree certificate for the degree and for work, the reference letter, salary slip and other work related documents only?
Appreciate your help and inputs on this. TIA
1 you don’t have to explain to IRCC if you have two degrees. They clearly understand what your WES report indicates.Guys, Anyone have any idea on the above? TIA
If you don’t have a masters degree, it will be difficult to convince IRCC that you were working while studying for a Bachelor which is full-time.
Work experience after your B.Sc is generally acceptable even if you were enrolled for a postgraduate degree but if it’s otherwise stated in your WES report, it will difficult to convince IRCC
I would like to correct you about British Council IELTS. They are running paper based and computer delivered IELTS in Canada since June 2020, and i think Canada is on planet Earth.
Another thing, good thing that you are spreading positivity but don’t predict too much for now, we have no clue what IRCC has in mind. Just wait and watch next few draws and then start predicting.
Cheers.
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