Hello
First of all, i also hope to have the cut-off decrease. I have been striving to reach 460, and as soon as i got there the points have never come down to that level, and then came march madness !!!
But i just want to discuss your points bit further - It's true what you say regarding IELTS and ECA, but there are other factors that determine the cut-off score. Such as...
1. Current backlog of people in higher score
2. Influx of people
3. number of PNP nominations - if this is high the cutoff score also will be a bit higher
4. Number of people the invited for the draw.
You have mentioned only about point 2, influx of people.
Regarding this, we can see that in the last 2 pool distributions that were published, there is an increase of around 1200 people added to the pool despite slow IELTS and ECA. Lets assume this stays the same rate as it is now (hope it decreases
), even then for the score to come down in a few months, we have to consider the other above points as well.
Regarding current backlog - we all know that there is enough ppl in higher than 465 even for 2 more draws for sure..
Regarding PNP nominations - If the PNP nominations increase in any of the draws, the cut-off score is affected! We have no way to predict this will increase or decrease.
Regarding number of ppl invited - If they invite less that 3900, then again cut-off does not come down quickly. An additional point to consider is to achieve their annual target of invites, they don't need 3900 every draw from now. If they continue 3900, they will achieve their annual target by mid november. So they might even reduce this number ( again i hope they don't )
So considering all of this do you still think the cut-off would reduce to 455 ? or even 460 soon ?
It would drop to that number if the IELTS & ECA are in a bad state till like January 2021, continously, but i don't think that can happen.
Well I hope the scores decrease though, but considering all of this, i don't know if i can just bank on it based on just one factor of IELTS & ECA. What do you think ?
You are right. That's why I repeatedly kept saying that as long as Canada keeps inviting 3.9k candidates, the cut-off will come down.
I have calculated considering the last 3 draws and I accurately see that 900 people were added to the pool on average every fortnight.
I consider India and the US to be the biggest contributors
In US, the situation is still worse. I have friends in Washington, California, Texas, Vermont, MO and other states and none are ready to step out (except grocery and other daily needs) or venture out to write IELTS or get the ECAs done.
In India, although CD IELTS has begun in few cities such as Hyd and Bengaluru, for more than half of the week, the dates keep getting postponed and is not even 10% of how IELTS used to run the show in the pre-covid era.
I called both BC and IELTS and got to know that in an exam center, they should allow a maximum of 50 candidates per week to write exam in the whole center (it used to be 1500 participants weekly in both pencil/paper and CD IELTS before this pandemic) in a city.
Plus many are not even ready to step out when the cases are creeping up sky-high. You may even know that many are stranded, got their salaries reduced, many left cities, in their native, lack of public transport and other similar problems.
I'm into a group where there are many dudes that were practicing for a long time and are not really ready to step out and go to the exam center. So clearly IELTS is running the show with less than 10 percent of how it used to be.
Getting ECA done is another insurmountable task. Most Indian universities having closed till September are not allowing people to get in. I heard Mumbai University has resumed providing transcripts (Takes upto 40 days) but the hurdle there too is that the university is not posting transcripts to ECA until further notice.
I've personally been to nearly 8 universities in TamilNadu and Karnataka and not even 1 university is ready to take in transcript request (except few private autonomous Univs and they too are neither sending transcripts digitally nor posting it to WES or CES).
From this, what I want to convey is that you will lesser and lesser people joining the pool. Those that entered would have just received their ECAs (given during March or before that). I have sent my transcripts to WES on Jan 11th and to CES on December 18th and got the ECAs just 10 days ago.
Your point that talks about backlogs is just perfect - you are right, the backlog is quite high and might take 3 to 4 draws (provided IRCC invites 3.9k outlanders) to touch the 460 mark.
PNP is out of our scope and we really cannot talk about it.
More than all, there are states in India such as Karnataka, West Bengal, Delhi and Maharashtra tightening screws due to spike in cases or second wave. I too heard from some sources that few states in India might get into lockdown again in some form to contain the spread.
As long as IELTS Pencil/paper mode does not begin (which will not until September), lesser and lesser candidates will get in.
Most people that are entering the pool (just as me) have already completed IELTS long back and have just got their ECAs which were sent by Feb or March. Any transcript sent after March (physical) is in the office and will be taken care after a prolonged wait. ECA organization staff will only come to office after September.
Let us pray and hope that cut-off comes down in every means and also be rewarded for our relentless hard work, sacrifices we made to get a score of above 460. It should not and will not go in vain.
