Ray of Hope - 136th Draw
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Don’t worry. I’ll do as I feel. It’s just a thought and you do not have to fall to that level to beg.
Historically, it seems when there is a B2B draw, the points drop by 4/5 points minimum. Do people predict the same if there is one again next week?
I know this all theoretical but have to keep hope while also making a backup plan!
I know this all theoretical but have to keep hope while also making a backup plan!
This time the tie-breaker was a shock.
If at all a back to back draw happens in Jan, I reckon it’ll be a drop of only 2/3 points.
I know why I am saying this. I have been studying here for 3 years now and things have changed drastically. The process is unnecessarily expensive, the points you need to get are almost unachievable at least for the federal visa. They are adamant on pushing migrants to the regional areas which are grossly underdeveloped. I have seen many people's dreams crushed here. I am only here because I have received scholarships for my studies. Unless you are transferring from a multi-national organisation, it does not make any sense. There are thousands of people in the pool right now who meet the minimum requirements of 65, yet they only choose a few hundred people at a time with scores of 95 and above. All of the other invitations are spousal visas, family reunion or visas for the regional areas.
While I am aware of the situation, I am only considering this option as I have a job offer in Australia. I don’t know how much that can help, but I was more keen for a Canada. But the current trends are looking worrisome for me at a 470 and entered the pool just in Jan 2020.
Congrats! If you have a job offer and the employer is willing to sponsor you on a 186 visa then it is a great option!
Hang in there. You have a great score. Definitely in the next two draws you will be picked! No one knows the distribution of scores in the 451-600 category.
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Honestly, I wasn't expecting a 2 point drop so I think it's good news. We had a 3 week gap and we are already close to 469 which was the cut off of. B2B draw. Despite the fact that we have almost 20.000 people in the 450-600 range it seems people who are getting in the pool are not so high in Crs score anymore. At least not the majotirty of them, that is for sure. Let's see what happens in the next draw, if the score continue to drop we might expect a slow but consistent drop for a few months maybe. Maybe the end of 2019 was really atypical in terms of people applying.
Reasons probably why the tie-breaker was May 9 2019:
- There was a huge influx of students going to Canada 2014 onwards. These have now graduated and obtained Post Study Work Permits. Their Canadian education and work experience are fetching higher points to add to CRS. Even if they had created a profile last year, completing an additional year of work in Canada could have fetched then an additional 25 points on their CRS.
- The number of PNPs issued last year has been higher than the year before. These applicants have started to get points awarded towards their CRS recently.
- More awareness of the Canadian Immigration system amongst the educated and skilled youth have increased the inflow 450+
If you look compare the table published today vs the one published on Jan 8 2020, you will see that the number of applicants in pool between the score of 400 -450 has dropped. The highest probability relates to point 1 and point 2 explained above.
Based on these reasons it is possible that the trend may continue.
I do not intend to demotivate anyone and I really wish that the CRS cut- offs drops in the coming draws.
Congrats to everyone who got the invite. Although i don't think we'll see much of them on this thread 
i don't see anyone appreciating the fact that the score went down by 2 points from last round, even without a B2B draw, that should be a positive thing, especially that we've seen 1,326 PNP nominations since 8 January. that's a big number of PNPs, especially from Ontario, 954, which is equivalent to almost 6th of their quota.
I think the score will always be subject to external factors beyond anyone's ability to predict, although it is nice to see the attempts and the science behind some of them. my own prediction is that the score will be subject toa gradual decline and the best chance for those below 468 is a B2B draw at the right time and size.
Best of luck to all...
i don't see anyone appreciating the fact that the score went down by 2 points from last round, even without a B2B draw, that should be a positive thing, especially that we've seen 1,326 PNP nominations since 8 January. that's a big number of PNPs, especially from Ontario, 954, which is equivalent to almost 6th of their quota.
I think the score will always be subject to external factors beyond anyone's ability to predict, although it is nice to see the attempts and the science behind some of them. my own prediction is that the score will be subject toa gradual decline and the best chance for those below 468 is a B2B draw at the right time and size.
Best of luck to all...
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I agree. Slowly but surely it's going down. It seems even the number of persons entering the pool in the 450+ range has decreased a bit.
Yes it is good news, far too much focusing on the negatives. While no one has a crystal ball, it is encouraging. The cause for the rise two draws ago was the 3 week gap I imagine.
Not to say I expect it to drop to 460 any time soon, might never see that again, but 46-468 is not out of the realms of possibility over the next 2/3 months if they keep steady draws with no non-EE draws in between. And if there is a B2B draw, the chance of that rises a lot!
Not to say I expect it to drop to 460 any time soon, might never see that again, but 46-468 is not out of the realms of possibility over the next 2/3 months if they keep steady draws with no non-EE draws in between. And if there is a B2B draw, the chance of that rises a lot!
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