Ray of Hope - 126th Draw

[ntheegel]

Not true. Once a person accepts nomination, they are again back in the pool with additional 600 points and ITA in the next draw post nomination.

Hey Guys, my current crs is 456 & I have OINP invite since 15th August, I am in the process of collecting documents. I was hoping to wait till 25th September to submit my application. Now, cut off soaring again I am thinking to submit it ASAP, now my question is if I submit my application and cut off drops below 456 then will I still be eligible for ITA?

Anyone else in the same boat?


I believe question he was referring to was if he would be still eligible to apply for Federal Skilled Worker Program conducted by Federal Government after accepting Nomination from the province.If he accepts nomination from the province he would be getting additional 600 points and it would be a restricted PR Confining to one particular province for at least 2 years before he moves to any other province for work or business by showing proof to that provincial government that he did not find a job in that field or show other proofs to move out to any other province.I think his question was one he accepts the PNP from Ontario would he be also eligible to apply for both Federal Worker Program and PNP and get a Federal PR without any restrictions to move from once province to another.

Gsaggy: Could you clarify?

 

[anirudh1996]

The score was 456 just two very short weeks ago. Keep hope alive. 456 is a very good score. You may get your ITA is the very next draw.

I'm really worried about my chances of receiving an ITA with my 453 CRS in November

 

[anirudh1996]

As far as i understand the express entry system is not controlled by cic except for the number of invitations, that too based on the load they have and the backlogs they have against their target of intake. The entire process is dynamic and the crs depends on the number of people joining with dynamic and competent capabilities. More and more people with competitive age, education and work experience, marital status, spouse credentials (in case of married) joining the pool will influence the scores and vice versa. The number of days between the draws will also effect the score since the new entrants to the pool during this period will swell and if the candidates are of high scores the more the score. Out of all the more than 50 programs canada has, fsw has the highest quota since the number of applicants through this stream is so high and has been increasing and hence the increase in scores.

Government immigration and visa policies in major immigration destination countries is also effecting this score, as people look up to Canada as their new destination.

These is always a way out, just be persistent with your efforts.

Good luck to all hoping to make it next.

Number of ITAs issued in 2018 were 89,800.

Number of ITAs issued so far in 2019 are 58,900

Assuming there's 2 draws per month, number of draws left in 2019 are 7.

If number of ITAs per draw are 3600 total comes to 25,200 / 7 draws bringing 2019 ITAs to 85,000.

If number of ITAs per draw are 3900 total comes to 27300 / 7 draws bringing 2019 ITAs to 87,100

If CIC / IRCC were to reach 89,000+ ITAs in 2019 it has to either increase the number of draws or increase the number of ITAs per draw.

It's also possible that CIC / IRCC may issue fewer ITAs this year compared to 2018.

 

[EnthuChap]

Agreed. And this is my only worry.
I would be completing three years of foreign work next year. That would take me to 481. I hope it holds good by then.
Wish the same for you.
Hold strong. Good luck!

481 is way to high...with all that is going on, it may look doom and gloom but once CIC compensates for the (4+3) weeks gap that they forced this year, scores will be back to 450. This is all a deliberate manipulation.

Welcome to the club,bro...

I was in Australia,too...waiting for ITA but my 485 visa already expired and feel like no hope for accountant.

When conditions of new 491 Regional Visa are announced in November, then things may change.

Is it true that people who have CRS below 440, have to say bye bye to Canada (yes, I am one)? Won't PNP be any help?

Below 440 is too low and PNPs are the only option I'm afraid.

This is really heartbreaking seems like the Canadian dream is coming to end, need to move on in life.

Your pain is understandable, u may go in hibernation but keep on watching the scores. I wouldn't lose hope at 449 if I were you.

 

[Woqi114]

Guys I was running some analysis of the past data and came through 2 to 3 instances where scores shot up out of nowhere and then came back to normal.

One of that instance is the draw of October 3rd 2018 where score went up 4 points to close at 445 from a previous 441 even after doing a bi-weekly draw.

Then comes the interesting part - the next draw was conducted on October 15th instead of October 17th (2 days earlier) which was a Monday and then score again went down 5 points to 440 in that draw.

Before this draw, they had already conducted a b2b draw on June 25th which got the score down to 442 from a previous 3 weeks FST gap infested score of 451. From there on, the score remained in the early 440s up till November 14th and that is another interesting part.

On November 14th, score again shot up 7 points to 449 from a previous draw's score of 442 and there was no considerable gap, just 2 days behind schedule (Previous draw was a Monday October 29th and this one was on schedule i.e. Wednesday so a 2 days gap)

After this draw, they conducted a normal bi-weekly draw on November 28th which got the score down 4 points to 445 again which remained the same up till the next draw and then they did a b2b draw again on December 19th which brought the score down 6 points to 439

So guys, I believe the scores will come down again at least 4 to 5 points in the next draw to 458 to 459 and will hover around that mark until another b2b draw which might be coming in November. Yesterday's draw was a bummer for a majority of us here since nobody of us expected the score to go this high but coming draws will prove to be fruitful especially with the 3 draws coming up in October inshaALLAH.

 

[EnthuChap]

PLEASE HELP!!!
with this trend my husband is planning to apply alone. Therefore after he is getting the PR how long it takes get the PR for the spouse

12 months is the time published on CIC website for Outland Spousal Sponsorship.

 

[Dheana90]

When conditions of new 491 Regional Visa are announced in November, then things may change.

Most of 491 Regional probably gonna require experience in the field which I don't have.

My brother in-law is an Australian citizen but still hard to get 489 (family sponsores) visa now because of my occupation I think. Extra 10 points from his sponsorship still not beneficial for my Skillselect profile.

 

[EnthuChap]

Dear friends

My journey was started in November 2017.in 2018 our crs was 417 then got eca report from wes it was two or more then score increased to 444 . Then again documents sent to ces spent 50 k again (paid for rush service)got master Equallency in may 2019 score increased to 451 . But again it was not sufficient. Again ielts by secondary applicant got the result on 30 aug score increased to 455. last draw was 457 . I was so confident score will come down to 455 . But this Wednesday again cut off is 463 . My dreams are shattered. Personal life professional life is like hell. Birthday approaching on December 25 . Feeling demotivated. Have given everything to this journey. Luck is playing with me from day one. Now I am feeling it's end of road for me don't know what to do
Congratulations to all winners . Good luck to rest of the members

You are placed very well my friend with 455 and I am very confident that you will get your ITA. I can feel your pain as I went through the same pain of denial from Mar to Aug at 448. But you know what, I kept lifting myself up and I was confident of a direct ITA at even that score. Although I received NOI from OINP, but the whole game changes man in a matter of 14 days. Just stay there and keep yourself busy. Remember that Oct itself has three draws!

 

[Gsaggy]

Exactly the same score and noi of the same date. I am submitting my noi application this weekend.
And yes you can still get an ITA.

What's your NOC code bro. I am still willing to wait another draw. Never know what surprise CIC might throw.

 

[Gsaggy]

Hey Guys, my current crs is 456 & I have OINP invite since 15th August, I am in the process of collecting documents. I was hoping to wait till 25th September to submit my application. Now, cut off soaring again I am thinking to submit it ASAP, now my question is if I submit my application and cut off drops below 456 then will I still be eligible for ITA?

Anyone else in the same boat?


I believe question he was referring to was if he would be still eligible to apply for Federal Skilled Worker Program conducted by Federal Government after accepting Nomination from the province.If he accepts nomination from the province he would be getting additional 600 points and it would be a restricted PR Confining to one particular province for at least 2 years before he moves to any other province for work or business by showing proof to that provincial government that he did not find a job in that field or show other proofs to move out to any other province.I think his question was one he accepts the PNP from Ontario would he be also eligible to apply for both Federal Worker Program and PNP and get a Federal PR without any restrictions to move from once province to another.

Gsaggy: Could you clarify?

Yaa, I was referring to Fed draw in the meanwhile I am waiting for OINP invite.

 

[lignumvitae]

Guys I was running some analysis of the past data and came through 2 to 3 instances where scores shot up out of nowhere and then came back to normal.

One of that instance is the draw of October 3rd 2018 where score went up 4 points to close at 445 from a previous 441 even after doing a bi-weekly draw.

Then comes the interesting part - the next draw was conducted on October 15th instead of October 17th (2 days earlier) which was a Monday and then score again went down 5 points to 440 in that draw.

Before this draw, they had already conducted a b2b draw on June 25th which got the score down to 442 from a previous 3 weeks FST gap infested score of 451. From there on, the score remained in the early 440s up till November 14th and that is another interesting part.

On November 14th, score again shot up 7 points to 449 from a previous draw's score of 442 and there was no considerable gap, just 2 days behind schedule (Previous draw was a Monday October 29th and this one was on schedule i.e. Wednesday so a 2 days gap)

After this draw, they conducted a normal bi-weekly draw on November 28th which got the score down 4 points to 445 again which remained the same up till the next draw and then they did a b2b draw again on December 19th which brought the score down 6 points to 439

So guys, I believe the scores will come down again at least 4 to 5 points in the next draw to 458 to 459 and will hover around that mark until another b2b draw which might be coming in November. Yesterday's draw was a bummer for a majority of us here since nobody of us expected the score to go this high but coming draws will prove to be fruitful especially with the 3 draws coming up in October inshaALLAH.

In Shaa Allah

 

[hamhk202]

Any chances of draw on September 11th?

 

[Dheana90]

PLEASE HELP!!!
with this trend my husband is planning to apply alone. Therefore after he is getting the PR how long it takes get the PR for the spouse

Hi dear,

I think spouse visa can take up to a year or even longer to process

 

[Dheana90]

Any chances of draw on September 11t

Lil chance, I'd say.

I can't think of a reason why CIC would conduct regular draw on 11th. It's only gonna cause a 3-4 week gap again and no B2B draw in October think.

 

[breakthrough2019]

My score is at 455. My hope currently is my brother who just got his PR and will be traveling soon. Can’t wait for him to land and get a house so I can claim points for siblings which will jack my score to 470. Patiently waiting....