Ray of Hope - 121st Draw

[NikSharma01]

Today’s draw brings the number of invitations issued in 2019 to 41,800.

This puts the current year 2,100 ITAs ahead of IRCC’s 2018 pace.

Last year saw IRCC issue a record 89,800 ITAs, a number it could surpass this year given Canada’s higher admissions targets for both 2019 and 2020.

Yet I fail to understand why in the worst case scenario they won't issue the same number of ITAs as last year??

Strong feeling that sooner or later they just have to conduct B2B draws and/or 4000+ ITAs.

Thoughts?

The primary reason is due to the scarce staff they're already running behind the time and so, dealing with excessive backlogs!! Which is clearly their problem not ours. However, still we're suffering.

 

[EnthuChap]

Today’s draw brings the number of invitations issued in 2019 to 41,800.

This puts the current year 2,100 ITAs ahead of IRCC’s 2018 pace.

Last year saw IRCC issue a record 89,800 ITAs, a number it could surpass this year given Canada’s higher admissions targets for both 2019 and 2020.

Yet I fail to understand why in the worst case scenario they won't issue the same number of ITAs as last year??

Strong feeling that sooner or later they just have to conduct B2B draws and/or 4000+ ITAs.

Thoughts?

I too share your concern mate, but we aren't very far from having our answers. It's a wait of another 14 days. Compared to last year, when they used to issue 3000 ITAs normally, they are issuing 3300 in this year. Similarly, when they used to issue 3900 ITAs, they may as well be issuing 4200 ITAs. We shall know in 14 days time. Cheers

 

[ContactFront]

Hi , I am at 457 Ielts overall 7 - R6 W6 S7 L8
And could have a chance to increase my score by giving ielts exam.
But if I appear for ielts exam on July 6 the result would be out on 19 July.
Which means that result would be applicable on July 24 draw.
Should I appear for Ielts again?
Or crs would be down by then? As increasing number of file between 451-460 are increasing enormously.
If I appear for Ielts will cost me $315 + day off and stress.

I have asked for opinion earlier also.
Your guidance is always welcome.

Thanks in advance.

If you know you can do better in IELTS, why just sit and hope.
Stress of IELTS vs. stress of not getting an invite and uncertainty. It would be an easy choice for me if I were you.

 

[armaanwadhwa]

The primary reason is due to the scarce staff they're already running behind the time and so, dealing with excessive backlogs!! Which is clearly their problem not ours. However, still we're suffering.

2018 was the year to do it I guess. They could probably get away with just reaching their original target for 2019 at this rate.

That means, we all lose.

The times when it was 450 and we thought it was the worst until that 28 day gap which changed all this for the worse.

Just sad times !!

 

[#EEC]

I haven't received ITA today after 121st draw even though my score was 468. I submitted the profile on 15th june. Can anyone tell me why I didn't get this time or how long it takes to get ITA after draw?

Wen did u entered pool.. I mean created profile

 

[Yqing237]

What is the primary reason that this year scores are like at least 10 points higher than last year?

 

[armaanwadhwa]

I too share your concern mate, but we aren't very far from having our answers. It's a wait of another 14 days. Compared to last year, when they used to issue 3000 ITAs normally, they are issuing 3300 in this year. Similarly, when they used to issue 3900 ITAs, they may as well be issuing 4200 ITAs. We shall know in 14 days time. Cheers

Indeed brother. But as much as I'm positive, the pool never seems to get smaller and we keep moving to the next draw. Can't do much but I hope you get my point.

There must be a saturation point where this massive influx just slows down.

The internal pool which seemed reasonable now seems daunting!

 

[ContactFront]

What is the primary reason that this year scores are like at least 10 points higher than last year?

There was a gap of one month between two draws in May

 

[SithLord]

I believe next cut-off should be around 462

If I'm correct IELTS results for June 1st candidates will be released on June 14th so that will increase the pool further. Computer based applicants have already entered the current pool.

Ofcourse, IQAS and WES results could also affect the pool this period. However, I don't think ECA makes a bigger impact on the pool the same way IELTS has in a matter of 2 weeks.

Now if there is a back to back draw after June 26. Then cut-off for July 3 could fall around 452-454 since IELTS will be on June 29th and results for paper/computer based will not be released before July 3 If they increase ITAs this could even drop to 450.

So everyone just pray there is back to back draw on June 26 and July 3.

This was my prediction in ROH 120th. I'm very happy that I got it right again

Congratulations to all who made it

 

[James_bk_fun]

2018 was the year to do it I guess. They could probably get away with just reaching their original target for 2019 at this rate.

That means, we all lose.

The times when it was 450 and we thought it was the worst until that 28 day gap which changed all this for the worse.

Just sad times !!

I suspect they saw the average scores for the cut off dropping and decided to pause it to maintain the calibre of people their letting in.

The affect is certainly shocking though. You’d be looking at around 449-450 if that break hadn’t have happened

 

[Dheana90]

Hi guys, I have made some estimation of the cut off score for for 121 draw which hopefully should happen on 10th July based on the previous CRS distribution as follow.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315

It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)

By 12th June, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =448 (288 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7001 (5,646 + 1355(271x5))
441-450 = 6460 (6,315 + 145(29x5))

After the 12th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution should be:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-448=2902)
451-600 = 4,099 (7001 - 2902)
441-450 =6460

June 21st CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =285
451-600 =5,980
441-450 =6,775

It means, in 9 days from 12th June to 21th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (285/9)
451-600 =209prof/day(5980-4099=881/9)
441-450 =24profile/day (6,775-6460=215/9)

By 26th June, the score distribution would be:
601-1,200 =445 (285 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7025 (5,980 + 1045(209x5))
441-450 = 6895(6,775 + 120(29x5))

After the 26th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-445=2905)
451-600 = 4,120 (7025- 2905)
441-450 =6,895

The 4,120 in the (451-600) are those sitting at 451-462 only. The density of these scores are unknown. Maybe most of them are sitting at 450s or 460s. No one really know.

By 10th July, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200= 448 (32x14days)
451-600= 7046 (4,120+ 2926(209x14)
441-450= 7301(6,895+ 406(29x14)

Approximately:
With 3350 ITAs
The cutoff score is 458-460

With 3500 ITAs
The cutoff score is 455-457

With 3750 ITAs
The cutoff score is 452-454

With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score is 449-453.

This is only estimation guys. So the cutoff score may will be lower on the draw date. So, look at this as worse case scenario only.

 

[alexross]

Today’s draw brings the number of invitations issued in 2019 to 41,800.

This puts the current year 2,100 ITAs ahead of IRCC’s 2018 pace.

Last year saw IRCC issue a record 89,800 ITAs, a number it could surpass this year given Canada’s higher admissions targets for both 2019 and 2020.

Yet I fail to understand why in the worst case scenario they won't issue the same number of ITAs as last year??

Strong feeling that sooner or later they just have to conduct B2B draws and/or 4000+ ITAs.

Thoughts?

Yes, they are 2100 ahead of last year's pace, but considering that they have an increased target, they are actually at pace with last year. If they want to keep up the same pace as last year, they will need to increase the draw size because last years post June draw size were all 3750 per draw or greater. So at some point in the 2nd half of his years draws sizes will have to increase.

They need to issue almost 50,000 ITAs in the 2nd half of the year, so far only 41,800 issued. to meet the target going forward average ITA size should be around 3800 (Assuming 13 draws, same as 2nd half of last year). Each draw with a lower size going forward means later draws with even bigger draw size.

Basic takeaway here is, half the year is over, but much less than half the targeted number of ITAs have been issued. so no choice for IRCC but to increase size or frequency for the rest of the year if they want to meet their target ITA numbers for 2019.

 

[NikSharma01]

2018 was the year to do it I guess. They could probably get away with just reaching their original target for 2019 at this rate.

That means, we all lose.

The times when it was 450 and we thought it was the worst until that 28 day gap which changed all this for the worse.

Just sad times !!

Indeed mate! At this pace, they will hardly fulfill their taregt of 2019, for example: numerous applications of 2018 are still expecting approvals! However, It also indicates one possibility that by the end of this year ITAs will precisely be increased after considering the declined or wasted ITAs till date. So, that's a valid reason for us to be hopeful.

 

[Mspa]

Am on 452 and am really sure i will get ITA by first or last draw of august.

That is spirit.I am with 454.Hope we all get ASAP

 

[rajapanesar]

I haven't received ITA today after 121st draw even though my score was 468. I submitted the profile on 15th june. Can anyone tell me why I didn't get this time or how long it takes to get ITA after draw?

I like your name. Is that the ideal gas equation?