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Ray of Hope - 92nd Draw

samikdg said:
A quick analysis of profiles with 440+ entering pool in 04-24 May period:
Number of Profiles on 4th May with CRS 441 or above = 205+1116+992=2313
Number of Profiles on 24th May with CRS 441 or above = 45+127+56=228
Assuming around 100 profiles with CRS exactly 440 got ITA on 23rd May draw, number of profiles with CRS 441 or above cleared in the 2 draws in May=3500*2-100=6900
Hence, number of profiles of 441 or above who entered between 4th-24th May=6900-2313+228=4815
Daily Rate=4815/20=241/day

But, similar analysis from 16th-24th May yields following:
Number of Profiles on 16th May with CRS 441 or above = 185+871+909=1965
Number of Profiles on 24th May with CRS 441 or above = 45+127+56=228
Assuming around 100 profiles with CRS exactly 440 got ITA on 23rd May draw, number of profiles with CRS 441 or above cleared in the 23rd May draw=3500-100=3400
Hence, number of profiles of 441 or above who entered between 16th-24th May=3400-1965+228=1663
Daily Rate=1663/8=208/day

We all know there was a major influx between 4th-9th May and assuming that is due to OINP nominations, but also keep in mind that the IELTS result came out on 4th May itself, so there would be a surge due to that also. The IELTS-free draw still had about 208/day influx, so it is hard to tell.

With above, I think the next draw on 6th June will be crucial as it should show what is the influx happening with IELTS result and no siginificant PNP nominations. If it is stable in the 200-210/day region, we can hope that the cut-off will gradually come down over next 2-3 months. Larger draw size will definitely help. People saying that June 20th draw having cut-off slightly increased have some merit though, as 2 IELTS results will mean higher influx, how much higher is the question :)
Click to expand...
Instead of assuming 100 from 440..as we have pool distribution as if may 24th..and considering 21 profiles per day were added in this range( based on previous diatributions)...around 200 were flushed out..not 100..
 
By the way after 23rd May, we had another draw on 30th May (although not the general one).. then how come everyone is of the view that next draw would be on 6th.. aren't the chances are high for 13th? I hope that its on 6th by the way!!
 
kivcool said:
By the way after 23rd May, we had another draw on 30th May (although not the general one).. then how come everyone is of the view that next draw would be on 6th.. aren't the chances are high for 13th? I hope that its on 6th by the way!!
Click to expand...
Those small draws won't count!
 
kivcool said:
By the way after 23rd May, we had another draw on 30th May (although not the general one).. then how come everyone is of the view that next draw would be on 6th.. aren't the chances are high for 13th? I hope that its on 6th by the way!!
Click to expand...

Yeah, I agree. I have a feeling it might be on the 13th too. But this is ray of hope, and last time we had a draw like that it didn't "count", draws proceeded as normal. Lets all hope for a draw on the 6th :)
 
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Those were FST and PNP draws.
kivcool said:
By the way after 23rd May, we had another draw on 30th May (although not the general one).. then how come everyone is of the view that next draw would be on 6th.. aren't the chances are high for 13th? I hope that its on 6th by the way!!
Click to expand...
 
Ronja5200 said:
Yeah, I agree. I have a feeling it might be on the 13th too. But this is ray of hope, and last time we had a draw like that it didn't "count", draws proceeded as normal. Lets all hope for a draw on the 6th :)
Click to expand...
Last time? which draw you are referring to here?
 
Reddiered07 said:
I don't think so that the release of PNPs is stable evry draw! If you see on may 9th draw there was a huge influx of entrants..250+..if the pnp release was constant then we would not observe that spike! Don't say that suddenly people with higher scores increased from that particular draw onwards..doesn't make sense!
Click to expand...

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigratio...nuals/express-entry-year-end-report-2017.html
Well, an end year report of 2017 shows steady release of PNP each week. Last year the target was somewhere between 300-400 PNP ITA every 2 weeks. This year It will be somewhere around 500 (because more provinces started to use EE PNP).

You do not have a full picture of this year and you will not have it until the report is released. What you see is just status of EE 1 week before the draw (which will only give you half of the needed data.

And of course they can not reach ideal constant (because some people just accept their nomination late and they will hit next wave). But they do releases in rather small batches, so that PNP are spread all over the year.
The only time, there is a noticeable fluctuation, when a province is trying to use up its yearly quota (that was the case of Ontario close to the 2016, because of the internal issues, when agents literally refused to work in a decent pace) and of course when there is a draw irregularity (3 weeks or 1 week draw).
 
vensak said:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigratio...nuals/express-entry-year-end-report-2017.html
Well, an end year report of 2017 shows steady release of PNP each week. Last year the target was somewhere between 300-400 PNP ITA every 2 weeks. This year It will be somewhere around 500 (because more provinces started to use EE PNP).

You do not have a full picture of this year and you will not have it until the report is released. What you see is just status of EE 1 week before the draw (which will only give you half of the needed data.

And of course they can not reach ideal constant (because some people just accept their nomination late and they will hit next wave). But they do releases in rather small batches, so that PNP are spread all over the year.
The only time, there is a noticeable fluctuation, when a province is trying to use up its yearly quota (that was the case of Ontario close to the 2016, because of the internal issues, when agents literally refused to work in a decent pace) and of course when there is a draw irregularity (3 weeks or 1 week draw).
Click to expand...
Draw || PNP
1 || 502
2 || 282
3 || 318
4 || 288
5 || 301
6 || 164
7 || 582
8 || 258
9 || 137
10 || 59
11 || 254
12 || 332
13 || 143
14 || 0
15 || 102
16 || 459
17 || 299
18 || 481
19 || 136
20 || 455
21 || 493
22 || 392
23 || 293
24 || 381
25 || 290
26 || 0
27 || 215
28 || 129
29 || 388
30 || 599

You can see the fluctuations here, PNPs ranged from 59 to 599 !!
 
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Hi Friends, My current profile resides in the pool with CRS of 416; m doing some additional studies to attain some certification to boost my score.
Meanwhile I have got the opportunity of filing for work permit in Canada and I might have to go in couple of weeks. Is it advisable if I apply for PCC while I am in India?
 
Reddiered07 said:
Draw || PNP
1 || 502
2 || 282
3 || 318
4 || 288
5 || 301
6 || 164
7 || 582
8 || 258
9 || 137
10 || 59
11 || 254
12 || 332
13 || 143
14 || 0
15 || 102
16 || 459
17 || 299
18 || 481
19 || 136
20 || 455
21 || 493
22 || 392
23 || 293
24 || 381
25 || 290
26 || 0
27 || 215
28 || 129
29 || 388
30 || 599

You can see the fluctuations here, PNPs ranged from 59 to 599 !!
Click to expand...

And if you would add the dates of each draw, you would see that those low values belongs to draws that were done after only 1 week or less. And most of those big values belong to 3 weeks draws.
For example:
Feb.08 - 288 (after 2 weeks gap)
Feb.22 - 301 (after 2 weeks gap)
Mar.01 - 164 (after 1 week gap)
Mar.24 - 582 (after more than 3 weeks gap).
So what you posted just confirmes the steady release of PNP applicants.
 
Reddiered07 said:
Draw || PNP
1 || 502
2 || 282
3 || 318
4 || 288
5 || 301
6 || 164
7 || 582
8 || 258
9 || 137
10 || 59
11 || 254
12 || 332
13 || 143
14 || 0
15 || 102
16 || 459
17 || 299
18 || 481
19 || 136
20 || 455
21 || 493
22 || 392
23 || 293
24 || 381
25 || 290
26 || 0
27 || 215
28 || 129
29 || 388
30 || 599

You can see the fluctuations here, PNPs ranged from 59 to 599 !!
Click to expand...

And if you would add the dates of each draw, you would see that those low values belongs to draws that were done after only 1 week or less. And most of those big values belong to 3 weeks draws.
For example:
Feb.08 - 288 (after 2 weeks gap)
Feb.22 - 301 (after 2 weeks gap)
Mar.01 - 164 (after 1 week gap)
Mar.24 - 582 (after more than 3 weeks gap).
So what you posted just confirmes the steady release of PNP applicants.
 
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vensak said:
And if you would add the dates of each draw, you would see that those low values belongs to draws that were done after only 1 week or less. And most of those big values belong to 3 weeks draws.
For example:
Feb.08 - 288 (after 2 weeks gap)
Feb.22 - 301 (after 2 weeks gap)
Mar.01 - 164 (after 1 week gap)
Mar.24 - 582 (after more than 3 weeks gap).
So what you posted just confirmes the steady release of PNP applicants.
Click to expand...
Agreed that PNPs are controlled by looking at the above numbers, so coming to the spike that occurred on May 9th draw, what do you think might be the reason? If PNPs theory is ruled out?
 
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