Ray of Hope - 77th Draw
- Thread starter AlliBatista
- Start date
Check this out. It is easy to google it than type a question here for some thing easily available
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/skilled/apply-who.asp
As the targets are 8K more than 2017 i.e of PNP and FSW,FST,CEC.
So it clearly means that in order to achieve these targets CIC will have to increase the draw size as they did this yr from Jan to May.
I am sure if not from nov-dec the draw size will surely increase gradually from jan 2018 and we will again see 3700-3800 ITAs draw regularly with some back to back draws as well which will eventually lead the scores to go down to 400s to 440 range in 2018. It might not break 400 barrier as competition gets tough in early 400s range and newcomers every 2 weeks can outnumber the ITAs issued.
All and all PNP increase is also positive in 2 facts
1. As more quota is given to PNP and it will also increase more in 2019 and 2020 likes of OINP and other PNPs can become more flexible with their scores and requirements and will not pause their stream that regularly hence more people will benifit.
2. As more quota is given to PNP which means number of ITAs will increase as 35-40% of PNP goes through EE.
So all and all these things are positives. We never know score might break 400 support level in 2018-19 or 20.
In jan 2017 nobody thought in their wildest of dreams that score will fall to 413 but it did so anything can happen.
So it clearly means that in order to achieve these targets CIC will have to increase the draw size as they did this yr from Jan to May.
I am sure if not from nov-dec the draw size will surely increase gradually from jan 2018 and we will again see 3700-3800 ITAs draw regularly with some back to back draws as well which will eventually lead the scores to go down to 400s to 440 range in 2018. It might not break 400 barrier as competition gets tough in early 400s range and newcomers every 2 weeks can outnumber the ITAs issued.
All and all PNP increase is also positive in 2 facts
1. As more quota is given to PNP and it will also increase more in 2019 and 2020 likes of OINP and other PNPs can become more flexible with their scores and requirements and will not pause their stream that regularly hence more people will benifit.
2. As more quota is given to PNP which means number of ITAs will increase as 35-40% of PNP goes through EE.
So all and all these things are positives. We never know score might break 400 support level in 2018-19 or 20.
In jan 2017 nobody thought in their wildest of dreams that score will fall to 413 but it did so anything can happen.
unless the draw size increases back to 3700-3800 levels , scores are not going to drop ...Every fortnight close to 2200 candidates either bump their scores thru ielts or join the EE pool with scores in the range of 440-1200 which leaves only a window of 500 candidates from the existing pool of less than 440 scores . When they were drawing 3700 people in each draw , it used to clean up close 1500 people from the existing pool hence the substantial drop in numbers . With no draw for 3 weeks ( yesterday's draw cant really be considered a draw ) & if the next draw happens on 8th Nov & they still draw 2700 people then i am afraid the scores would increase to around 439 levels . Having said that , post announcement of quotas , if they start drawing 3700 people from 8th Nov then we could see scores go as low as 433 in a weeks time ...so everything depends on the trends seen in terms of the no of people drawn from 8th Nov onwards
How long does it usually takes to process the express entry application? I sent mine today as the ECA report just came out... any chance of getting an ITA today if there is a draw? I am hoping for 447 points with my wife so I think it would be possible if application is processed.
Draw 76 has cleared most people with Provincial nominations, hence the people higher up are mostly gone. If the next draw happens next week, can't really expect too many new applications higher than 650 within 7 days. Let's say there are 2,000 people in the pool between 431-440 at that time. Quite unlikely that there will be more than 900-1,000 people left with a CRS of above 450.
So, even if they issue 2,700 ITAs on Nov 8th, there's a very good chance most people in 435-440 will be picked up, and if they draw 3,000 or more, then expect the cutoff to go down to 329 or less. I'm quite optimistic for draw # 77... hangin' tough at 433
It will be bad news if the draw doesn't happen on Nov 8th... this would mean even more applicants with higher scores, more competition, and less chance of the CRS coming down. Good luck to all.
So, even if they issue 2,700 ITAs on Nov 8th, there's a very good chance most people in 435-440 will be picked up, and if they draw 3,000 or more, then expect the cutoff to go down to 329 or less. I'm quite optimistic for draw # 77... hangin' tough at 433
It will be bad news if the draw doesn't happen on Nov 8th... this would mean even more applicants with higher scores, more competition, and less chance of the CRS coming down. Good luck to all.
let me give you some stats my friends ...Approx 20 people get added per day in the 600-1200 category which means between 1st Nov-8th Nov , 140 more people will get added in this category...As of 26th Oct pool , there were 759 people between 451-600 category. The no of people getting added in this category per day is 85 which means there will be 1779 people between 451-600 on 8th Nov . In the 441-450 category there were 260 people as of 26th oct 7 per day intake in this category is 29 which means there would be 608 people in this category on 8th Nov . If we add these 3 numbers ( 140+1779+608 ) =2527 ...where do you think there would be scope on 8th Nov for scores to go below 440 if they dont draw 3700 peopleDraw 76 has cleared most people with Provincial nominations, hence the people higher up are mostly gone. If the next draw happens next week, can't really expect too many new applications higher than 650 within 7 days. Let's say there are 2,000 people in the pool between 431-440 at that time. Quite unlikely that there will be more than 900-1,000 people left with a CRS of above 450.
So, even if they issue 2,700 ITAs on Nov 8th, there's a very good chance most people in 435-440 will be picked up, and if they draw 3,000 or more, then expect the cutoff to go down to 329 or less. I'm quite optimistic for draw # 77... hangin' tough at 433
It will be bad news if the draw doesn't happen on Nov 8th... this would mean even more applicants with higher scores, more competition, and less chance of the CRS coming down. Good luck to all.
Fair points... assuming that the stats your're providing are indeed correct. But then you're also assuming that they won't draw more than 2,527... now that is a big assumption. I'd much rather go by history. See, a very similar sort of a draw happened on May 26th. Then after a week, on May 31st, see what happened. To quote you, "If it is destined, it shall happen" (indeed).
Please take into consideration that the ranges they provide are always below those that occur when they make a draw (it s like half year income statements for companies)... So the count in those ranges increases dramatically in between draws and we cant say for sure the trend the in/outflaws of profiles... Yesterday's annoucement would lure people to join the pool also
Buddy i guess u missed my earlier msg...If they draw 2750 people on 8th Nov , which has been the trend for the past 4 months then the cut off should be around 439 as the additional 200 invites ( 2750-2537) would bring the scores below 440. However , if the draw size is 3700 , then we could see the scores around 433-434...I am myself sitting at 431 & hoping for larger draw size to get thru...
LOL...Well Said ...If it is destined ...It will happen
Hi guys,
So I'm less busy at work and decided to do some predictions;
If there is a next draw let's say it comes Nov 8th, then below is the likely outcome;
436 - 2650 to 2750 ITAs
435 - 2750 to 2800 ITAs
434 - 2800 to 2850 ITAs
433 - 2810 to 2910 ITAs
So if the next draw is 435. The one that comes next will be
431 at about 2650 to 2700 ITAs
or 430 at about 3000 ITAs.
Then the next draw after will be 426 with about 2900 ITAs
It is just a prediction based on the number of ITAs that have been issued lately, However if the number rises the next draw will be between
431 to 432 and the one after would be 423 to 426.
I hope the CRS scores get's much lower than this and number of ITAs increase.
Best Regards guys.
So I'm less busy at work and decided to do some predictions;
If there is a next draw let's say it comes Nov 8th, then below is the likely outcome;
436 - 2650 to 2750 ITAs
435 - 2750 to 2800 ITAs
434 - 2800 to 2850 ITAs
433 - 2810 to 2910 ITAs
So if the next draw is 435. The one that comes next will be
431 at about 2650 to 2700 ITAs
or 430 at about 3000 ITAs.
Then the next draw after will be 426 with about 2900 ITAs
It is just a prediction based on the number of ITAs that have been issued lately, However if the number rises the next draw will be between
431 to 432 and the one after would be 423 to 426.
I hope the CRS scores get's much lower than this and number of ITAs increase.
Best Regards guys.