Ok guys, I'll come with the "bad" news....
It seems that ~3,000 ITAs per draw is the new target for now, and this isn't good. I had projected 431 +/-3 with 3,200 ITAs. Here are a couple points:
- While overall there's a reduction in the rate of new profiles, the rate for new profiles over 430 is increasing, with an unexpected increase in the range of 431-440 (the rate here doubled).
- The range over 600 increased a bit, but this is expected as more people are taking the PNP route.
- The rate of new profiles for all ranges under 430 decreased, which is good, but doesn't help the score.
But the bad thing is the 3,000 ITAs. With 3,200 we were barely over the minimum number of ITAs needed to keep a slow decrease of the score over the next few months, but 3,000 isn't enough. We have on average more than 215 new profiles per day over 430, and that will consume the 3,000 ITAs every two weeks. If the draws keep happening every two weeks and the number of ITAs is 3,000 or less, the score won't go below 430.
So here are the projections with 3,000 ITAs:
- August 30: ~3000 ITAs - 428 +/-1
- September 6: ~3000 ITAs - 436 +/- 2
- September 13: ~3000 ITAs - 445 +/-4
Sadly, we need at least one of these things to happen to lower the score:
- A reduction in the rate of new profiles over 430.
- An increase in the number of ITAs per draw, over 3200 at least.
- Back to back draws.
The first one doesn't help too much in the short term, but #2 and #3 can lower the score quickly.
If you have a NOI from Ontario, my suggestion is that you take that route when the stream re-opens. At the moment (under actual circumstances), is the best route.
