+1(514) 937-9445 or Toll-free (Canada & US) +1 (888) 947-9445

Ray of Hope 68th Draw

Mithu3

Star Member
Aug 7, 2015
166
301

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,621
3,038
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
According to this no draw takes place next day of maintenance contrary to expectations of ppl here.
The last time maintenance happened on a Tuesday was June 27th and there was a draw on June 28th (Wednesday).
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,621
3,038
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,621
3,038
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
Yes it is very possible. Especially those applying under CEC.
Currently the processing is happening quicker for FSW than CEC..There are 4 FSW folks who already have PPR who submitted application in May..
 

andieangel

Champion Member
Feb 13, 2017
1,621
4,858
Croatia
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
1311
Pre-Assessed..
Yes
So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,

This is my analysis.


601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)

Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.

So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get

601-1200 199
451-600 764
441-450 200
431-440 2070

Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs

If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution

601-1200 400
451-600 1400
441-450 500
431-440 2550

Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs


Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.

PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon. :)
How dare you??? :D Kidding! Great analysis, you're invited to Yukon party! ;) But you have to bring drinks! ;)
 

andieangel

Champion Member
Feb 13, 2017
1,621
4,858
Croatia
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
1311
Pre-Assessed..
Yes
Thx...Where does it say one month grace period? That appears to be correct since it doesn't look like it was in effect for the 6/28 draw, I just don't see where the grace period is stated.
I have to find it, sorry, I've read it somewhere I didn't make it up, I promise! :D
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mahnbab1 and lino82