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It isn't FIFO, so that logic wouldn't work. There's a SLA of 6 months they try to honor, but the variance in individual applicant's complexity changes how you will get processed. The expectation of FDs/PPR/RFVs/Portal/etc should be based on where your individual application is in the context of processing.
i am guessing this based on the new processing time system they introduced. as per last update in oct, they were trying to process Aug applications in 1 month and Sep applications in 3 months.
 
i am guessing this based on the new processing time system they introduced. as per last update in oct, they were trying to process Aug applications in 1 month and Sep applications in 3 months.

If you are referring to the way they show processing time, I don't think that's a good proxy. A better way to think through:
1. my bg and eligibility are completed - I can expect a PPR/RFV/Portal
2. my bg and eligibility are not completed - it can take time

AOR date should be balanced against application complexity+PR tracker state as the SLA is 6 months and that hasn't changed. This SLA is also for 80% applicants (depending on how they cohort - date/month/quarter <- unknown) and non-routine applications can go to a year or years.

There have been a few known factors that increase complexity e.g. divorce, military service/military service exclusion, etc - but they are still not enough for us to help predict the application complexity in detail either. I like to believe that the PR tracker status is more sane and becomes very helpful when you layer GCMS/CBSA notes (CBSA only if background check is in progress). Use that to navigate where you are in the journey. Very likely not worth obsessing over as there are better things to do (e.g. earning more money, settlement, network to grow in career, etc) and they serve more value to everyone's future growth.