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This was never the plan. The plan was originally for only a work permit with no support and that was one of the justification for the no cap on applications. Once people arrived it became clear that many would not be able to work, many couldn’t support themselves especially initially, etc. and would then need access to public healthcare, financial support, etc. Where is your proof that there was always going to be a PR pathway and CUAET was the initial step? The H&C PR pathway was announced 1.5 yrs after CUAET and is limited to those with a family member who is a Canadian citizen or PR so not all Ukrainians in Canada. That essentially rules out your argument that CUAET was always meant as a transition to PR program. The hope was that there would be peace in Ukraine much faster and at least some people would be able to return. Nobody predicted that this war last as long as it has. It is now more difficult to get asylum from Syria so yes there is some expectation that some people will return to Ukraine. People’s old lives and home regions have been impacted very differently depending on where you are from in Ukraine. Ukraine will also need people to rebuild their country. Until there is peace and depending on what peace looks like it is impossible to know what impacts it will have impact on Ukrainians longterm immigration prospects in Canada. Immigration is often not black or white.
Anyone with reasonable mindset would not expect people from Ukraine or other war torn country to return home as their countries would need years to rebuild physical infrastructure and functional economy. Healthcare, education, sense of safety and normalcy actually takes much longer time to restore. It is not only impractical, but also deeply disruptive to expect them to go back when the situation in their home countries is still uncertain or only marginally improved. Families from those countries have established new life in Canada and have integrated with the society, and have Canadian children whose best interests are to remain in Canada. I am not sure how you come to the idea that it is difficult to be accepted as Syrian refugee in Canada. IRB acceptance of refugee claims from Syria is still quite high. Despite major civil war has ended and Assad regime collapsed, Syria is still affected by clashes between various militia groups and there is no functional army or strong police force in Syria. There is no centralized universal government that would guarantee safey of everyone in Syria, and there are regions not controlled by the government. There are still credible claims related to safety, ongoing violence and lack of state protection and I think these are valid claims that will be accepted.
 
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According to the 2025 IRCC Minister Transition Binder the estimated processing time for new Humanitarian and Compassionate (H&C) applications ranges from 12 to 600 months.
For the Agri-Food Pilot, it is 228 months.
The Start-Up Visa program is 420 months.
The Caregiver program has an estimated processing time of 108 months for new applicants.
canada.ca/en/immigration...
canada.ca/en/immigration..
Statistics
nitarian & Compassionate &
: Pilot Programs and C
Wait Time

Wait Time
2024)
(Queue length for new applicants)
2025
(vs. 21
H&C (i
(13,75
Agrifood:
228 months
SUV: 420 months
EMPP: 54 months
Caregivers:
(15,875)
12-600 months
2025 Admissi
Federal Econo
108 months
These are theoretical speculative processing times for new applications. This is what is expected when there are 104K applications pending in H and C inventory and target admission remains at 10K for 2025, 6.5K for 2026. Hopefully, someone with good insight look at the current numbers of applications in the backlog and fix this mess before it worsens further.
 
Target admissions mean PR, not AIP. AIP is eligibility decision for exemption from requirements of IRP act, and someone with AIP still need to pass security and some other checks to become PR. I would not be surprised if time from AIP to PR become 2 to 3 years.
 
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Anyone with reasonable mindset would not expect people from Ukraine or other war torn country to return home as their countries would need years to rebuild physical infrastructure and functional economy. Healthcare, education, sense of safety and normalcy actually takes much longer time to restore. It is not only impractical, but also deeply disruptive to expect them to go back when the situation in their home countries is still uncertain or only marginally improved. Families from those countries have established new life in Canada and have integrated with the society, and have Canadian children whose best interests are to remain in Canada. I am not sure how you come to the idea that it is difficult to be accepted as Syrian refugee in Canada. IRB acceptance of refugee claims from Syria is still quite high. Despite major civil war has ended and Assad regime collapsed, Syria is still affected by clashes between various militia groups and there is no functional army or strong police force in Syria. There is no centralized universal government that would guarantee safey of everyone in Syria, and there are regions not controlled by the government. There are still credible claims related to safety, ongoing violence and lack of state protection and I think these are valid claims that will be accepted.

If that was the case every Ukrainian would have had access to the Ukranian H&C program. All of the Ukranians who have sought safety in Europe would also have a pathway to remain in their host country. There are also people who will want to return home. Canada just can’t absorb such large groups of H&C and asylum claimants especially at the moment. If people qualify for PR via economic immigration that is different and what many are trying to do. Syrian applications will be considered very differently than before the fall of Assad. For example you may now have more of a case for asylum if you are an Alawite as long as you can show you haven’t committed any crimes associated with the Assad governent. That would have been tough sell before the Assad regime fell. Things can change when it comes to immigration for governments, for asylum seekers, H&C applicants, etc. as well as in home countries. Every case is different but given the volume of applicants you typically need more than just not an ideal situation in your home country, poverty, lack of job opportunities, etc.
 
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Processing time for H&C applicant is now 12-600months. 600 months!!!! You know the numbers are bad and/or there is something changing when the government redacts them.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigratio...5-05/humanitarian-compassionate-programs.html
I think we are approaching an era where AIP would take at least 3 years and people with AIP will need to wait several years to become PR unless the program is urgently reformed. Parents, grandparents, siblings and aunt cases have overwhelmed and ruined H and C pathway.
 
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According to the 2025 IRCC Minister Transition Binder the estimated processing time for new Humanitarian and Compassionate (H&C) applications ranges from 12 to 600 months.
For the Agri-Food Pilot, it is 228 months.
The Start-Up Visa program is 420 months.
The Caregiver program has an estimated processing time of 108 months for new applicants.
canada.ca/en/immigration...
canada.ca/en/immigration..
Statistics
nitarian & Compassionate &
: Pilot Programs and C
Wait Time

Wait Time
2024)
(Queue length for new applicants)
2025
(vs. 21
H&C (i
(13,75
Agrifood:
228 months
SUV: 420 months
EMPP: 54 months
Caregivers:
(15,875)
12-600 months
2025 Admissi
Federal Econo
108 months
Lol dude 600 months is 50 years this is a joke right??
 
I think we are approaching an era where AIP would take at least 3 years and people with AIP will need to wait several years to become PR unless the program is urgently reformed. Parents, grandparents, siblings and aunt cases have overwhelmed and ruined H and C pathway.

Think it will be longer than 3 years and will keep getting longer and agree co up d be another few years from AIP to PR. If it takes years to get PR so also would likely have to review each file again for changes before getting PR. Think the goal will be to process less cases so the time between AIP and PR doesn’t get too out of control. Assume reforms may be proposed to eliminate groups who qualify and the ability to go back and cancel applications already being processed. Sure the IRCC lawyers are working overtime these days.
 
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Think it will be longer than 3 years and will keep getting longer and agree co up d be another few years from AIP to PR. If it takes years to get PR so also would likely have to review each file again for changes before getting PR. Think the goal will be to process less cases so the time between AIP and PR doesn’t get too out of control. Assume reforms may be proposed to eliminate groups who qualify and the ability to go back and cancel applications already being processed. Sure the IRCC lawyers are working overtime these days.
That is why bill C2 was introduced. It will allow IRCC to cancel certain applications in the backlog if it is in public interest. The only way to significantly reduce current H and C backlog is to filter all cases not involving best interest of children and remove parent/grandparent, sibling and aunt cases.
 
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Lol dude 600 months is 50 years this is a joke right??
May be typo lol
13% of processing of 49900 inventory in 2025 is 6487 applications to be processed in 2025.
If goes like that each year that will be ..
49900 ÷6487=7.6 years.
That means It will take 7.6 years to clear this backlogs.
 
May be typo lol
13% of processing of 49900 inventory in 2025 is 6487 applications to be processed in 2025.
If goes like that each year that will be ..
49900 ÷6487=7.6 years.
That means It will take 7.6 years to clear this backlogs.

H&C general appears to only get 13% of total H&C allocation so 13% of the 6487 which is scheduled to decrease next year to around 4500. Also unless you pause applications we will keep adding to the H&C backlog.
 
That is why bill C2 was introduced. It will allow IRCC to cancel certain applications in the backlog if it is in public interest. The only way to significantly reduce current H and C backlog is to filter all cases not involving best interest of children and remove parent/grandparent, sibling and aunt cases.

Had only read the asylum part so yes the C2 would allow this to happen. Think there will have to be more nuance as to who gets removed even for BIOC cases like length of time in Canada, whether there is a Canadian child and age of that child, family composition, etc. Canada doesn’t want to incentivize, even more than it already is, having children in Canada as a means to secure PR.
 
H&C general appears to only get 13% of total H&C allocation so 13% of the 6487 which is scheduled to decrease next year to around 4500. Also unless you pause applications we will keep adding to the H&C backlog.
It is not the percentage of allocations. It is the percentage of the inventory that will be processed in 2025. 13% of general H and C backlog will be processed in 2025 (6.5K approximately), and 9% of Ukraine, 18% of Sudan, 81% of America (like Haiti, Venzeula) inventory, respectively. Out of 6.5K applications that will be processed in 2025 for general H and C, the planned admission is only 1.1k which means even if half of processed inventory (3.3K) receive AIP, they will spread it over 3 years to meet the target.
 
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Had only read the asylum part so yes the C2 would allow this to happen. Think there will have to be more nuance as to who gets removed even for BIOC cases like length of time in Canada, whether there is a Canadian child and age of that child, family composition, etc. Canada doesn’t want to incentivize, even more than it already is, having children in Canada as a means to secure PR.
The impact of bill C2 on other immigration pathways is much more than its effect on asylum claims. It gives IRCC broad authority to cancel applications in the backlog and even abandon immigration documents if in public interest. However, since the bill has privacy issues in other provisions, I am not expecting it to pass in the near future.