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[ElvisRamaj]

So you guys think its going to be some specific draw? Or will it go down to 480?

480, what ?

There is no chance for that score this year. At the very best, perhaps 490.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

Swedish voters boost anti-immigration party amid high crime

https://apnews.com/article/elections-stockholm-sweden-government-and-politics-9a061363b01b3bc53158f49e06edc0b1

STOCKHOLM (AP) — A populist anti-immigration party has surged to become Sweden’s second-largest political force after a national election dominated by fears of gang violence, which has given the once-safe Scandinavian country one of Europe’s highest levels of gun violence.

Overall, a conservative opposition bloc including the anti-immigration party, the Sweden Democrats, had an extremely narrow lead over the incumbent center-left with 94% of the votes counted.

In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany party congratulated the Sweden Democrats on “their sensational success in the parliamentary elections.” France’s far-right leader Marine Pen also tweeted her congratulations to the “patriotic” Swedish party, saying: “Everywhere in Europe, people aspire to take their destiny back into their own hands!”

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Imagine that, Sweden becoming anti-immigration and voting what media's like to portray as "far right" or "extreme right".

I would have never thought that Sweden would make such a turn. If they do it, imagine what the rest of Europe will do during this decade.

 

[sunny0078]

480, what ?

There is no chance for that score this year. At the very best, perhaps 490.

No brother it will go till 480 as per current trend depicts.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

No brother it will go till 480 as per current trend depicts.

Care to go a little more in-depth to that "current trend depicts" ?

 

[sunny0078]

Care to go a little more in-depth to that "current trend depicts" ?

before that, I would like to see your analysis of why it would not go below 490. on what grounds are you claiming that?

 

[ElvisRamaj]

before that, I would like to see your analysis of why it would not go below 490. on what grounds are you claiming that?

I insist you go first.

 

[sunny0078]

I insist you go first.

my friend, then I believe we are stuck in a loop.

 

[sunny0078]

still, if you insist normal maths 20k on average is above 480 and we have 8 more draws to go this year. as per 250 increments on all draw adding to 8 draws come to be 29000 keeping draw size won't increase after 3500. Adding 8k more to the pool as before every draw we see an average of 1000 adding in the pool. hence target goes up to 28k (people above 480) and by December end 29k ita will be issued. hence 480 is plausible and I'm doing on the lower side if 250 will be an increment on the other hand if we go by 500 increments we can see maybe 1 draw earlier.

 

[ImpatientDragon]

before that, I would like to see your analysis of why it would not go below 490. on what grounds are you claiming that?

His claim is based on him getting an ITA now. {Just kidding @ElvisRamaj}

 

[ElvisRamaj]

still, if you insist normal maths 20k on average is above 480 and we have 8 more draws to go this year. as per 250 increments on all draw adding to 8 draws come to be 29000 keeping draw size won't increase after 3500. Adding 8k more to the pool as before every draw we see an average of 1000 adding in the pool. hence target goes up to 28k (people above 480) and by December end 29k ita will be issued. hence 480 is plausible and I'm doing on the lower side if 250 will be an increment on the other hand if we go by 500 increments we can see maybe 1 draw earlier.

We started the month of July with 8,200 candidates with CRS 501+ and using the logic you just presented, after 10,240 ITAs issued we should have dropped below a few thousand numbers at least below that 8,200, but still, here we are, as per the latest draw, at 7,200 people with 501+ points.

I always knew that draws will easily reach 3,000, because the immigration numbers for 2023 allow that. Beyond 3,500 is not possible. I don't know what numbers they are planning to announce in November, but unless is something close to 100k, then 3,600 is your max number for ITAs bi-weekly. Current draws include PNPs, so take that into consideration.

The things that you left completely out are :

• CEC candidates being awarded 30-50 points per work experience beginning of September, which we will find out tomorrow.
• People who haven't gotten their ECA yet.
• People learning French and giving the exams.
• Those who got job offers recently.
• Those whose brother/sister/mother/father, step-this and step-that, dog and cat who recently became PR got awarded that sweet 15 points without doing jacksh!t.

Not to mention, I have never seen so many profiles added to the pool in such a short time frame. Almost 30k in two months.

I am not saying its impossible to reach 480, but with the current data we have, its highly unlikely.

 

[sunny0078]

what do you mean by the first point cec candidates are now given more privilege? do you have any link for that where it is stated as such

 

[ElvisRamaj]

what do you mean by the first point cec candidates are now given more privilege? do you have any link for that where it is stated as such

People who started working in Canada in the month of October 2021, on September 01 2022 they were awarded the points because the system calculates work experience in months.

 

[RSub]

Any of you recent Canadians started Winter shopping yet?

What you thinking of shoppin?

 

[RSub]

No brother it will go till 480 as per current trend depicts.

Wait what?? Are you getting your insights from Kubeir Kamala Sir's videos?

 

[GandiBaat]

People who started working in Canada in the month of October 2021, on September 01 2022 they were awarded the points because the system calculates work experience in months.

Isn't that thing always happens? CEC points for canadian experience has always been a thing. Or you are specifically referring to students who finished their degree in fall 2021? Anyways those will also have some 50 odd points for canadian degrees.