Ray of Hope - 91st Draw

[Midnight Blessing]

Yes there are couple of positive, first back to back would be the biggest takeaway from this. Maybe We will see some more back to back in coming months, at least two or three back to back can do wonders for people in the mid to high 430 region.

we cant call it a regular back to back draw in the first place actually. This is because, FSW was not the criteria for the draw. They have just reduced some PNP and FSTP candidates through a surprise draw after ages. The only way they could have contained these candidates is through a draw between two regular draws which they did. Also, the little positivity of this draw will be observed if a draw is observed next Wednesday, otherwise a two week draw after this will have the same disastrous effect as a three week draw at this point. Lets hope for the best anyway....

 

[Polarbear1]

we cant call it a regular back to back draw in the first place actually. This is because, FSW was not the criteria for the draw. They have just reduced some PNP and FSTP candidates through a surprise draw after ages. The only way they could have contained these candidates is through a draw between two regular draws which they did. Also, the little positivity of this draw will be observed if a draw is observed next Wednesday, otherwise a two week draw after this will have the same disastrous effect as a three week draw at this point. Lets hope for the best anyway....

There will be a draw next week....they also have targets to meet

 

[Polarbear1]

we cant call it a regular back to back draw in the first place actually. This is because, FSW was not the criteria for the draw. They have just reduced some PNP and FSTP candidates through a surprise draw after ages. The only way they could have contained these candidates is through a draw between two regular draws which they did. Also, the little positivity of this draw will be observed if a draw is observed next Wednesday, otherwise a two week draw after this will have the same disastrous effect as a three week draw at this point. Lets hope for the best anyway....

There will be a draw next week....they also have targets to meet

 

[Abhishek.s1990]

Only 163 votes registered so far..out of 8k+ people sitting over 430!!! Atleast we need to 1k votes to determine the accuracy of the poll otherwise poll seems skewed/biased and not representative of entire population!

Not all the 8k people between 431-440 are on this forum
u can just made a rough guess though but its accuracy might be questionable

 

[Reddiered07]

Not all the 8k people between 431-440 are on this forum
u can just made a rough guess though but its accuracy might be questionable

Yes..but if the sample is representative of entire population then we can make a guess. That happens when nearly same percentage of total members participate in the pool..(for example 2% of members with 440,439..430 took the poll). But i dont think the percentage is same across the scores..I guess people from 431 to 434 atleast are less engaged wrt poll!

 

[Abhishek.s1990]

There i

CRS Trend and Data analysis

Last Draw 23rd May - CRS 440.
Target for 2018 - 300,000 immigrants
Economic Class (EE+PNP) - 135,000 (https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html)

Considering 1 ITA = 2.23 landed immigrants and an average rejection/decline rate of 30-33% (source open data for 2015/2016)
135000/2.23 = 60500 successful ITAs.
Add allowance for rejections of around 30% for sake of calculations, it is expected IRCC will need to issue around 87500-88000 ITAs (They issued similar numbers for 2017)

As of now, there have been 10 draws in 2018 with a total of 31000 ITAs.
Considering they will issue in the range of 87000-88000 ITAs for this year, that leaves us with roughly 56000 ITA for the remainder of the year. Since we are in the 22nd week of the year and a draw due next week, it is expected that there will be 16 draws for the remaining period of the year (Bi-weekly draw). This brings average draw size to 3500, which is what CIC is maintaining as of now.

Outlook
So unless they bring some variance in the draw size, by issuing an increased number of ITAs to over 4000+ and/or conduct back to back draws as they did in 2017, the scores CAN NOT drop below 438-439.
The reason for that is 100% increase in the EE pool from 44000 candidates in 2017 to 85000+ now.
Going by the averages for 2018, Nearly 240+ candidates enter the pool every day with scores of over 440.

The EE pool is dynamic and profiles expire, become ineligible or new ones are created each day. There are also candidates whose CRS scores increase due to better language scores, work experience, education or sibling points and then there are others whose CRS drops due to age or becomes ineligible due to expired IELTS/ECA.

So if they maintain 3500 ITAs per draw and bi-weekly draws, then it looks like an extremely bleak picture and a significant drop in CRS cannot be anticipated.

I am #foreverhopeful that CIC will take steps to reduce CRS by conducting back to back draws and increased ITAs per draw. The reason they may want to drop the CRS (even for a brief period) would be just to bring some balance in the pool and to allow a different mix of skill sets and profiles/backgrounds etc.
But can not speculate when that would happen

Forwarded message, From Kubier.....

There is a small flaw in this you have considered biweekly draws and counted 16 draws are remaining , but it has actually been 2 draws a month in 2018 hence 10 draws in 5 months So we now have 7 months left that will account for 14 draws , and with your calculation if 56000 ITA's remain it is around 4000 ITA's to be issued in 14 draws or a third draw in a month some where down the line .

Seems they have'nt decided yet thus the draw yesterday removed 500 people . Expect adraw with 3500 ITA's on 6th that makes 4000 ITA's in total .

.The score will drop to early 430's for sure by the end of the year though .

 

[Abhishek.s1990]

Yes..but if the sample is representative of entire population then we can make a guess. That happens when nearly same percentage of total members participate in the pool..(for example 2% of members with 440,439..430 took the poll). But i dont think the percentage is same across the scores..I guess people from 431 to 434 atleast are less engaged wrt poll!

Yes, I guess I myself was stuck at 426 . Got ECA done for my Wife which boosted the score to 434 . I am not thinking whether to wait for PNP that's definitely in the cards as my profile was recreated a week back .

If my wife gets a CLB 9 our score would jump to 440 , but it would be tough for her . For now I am just waiting for the next draw before I take that decision

 

[Reddiered07]

Yes, I guess I myself was stuck at 426 . Got ECA done for my Wife which boosted the score to 434 . I am not thinking whether to wait for PNP that's definitely in the cards as my profile was recreated a week back .

If my wife gets a CLB 9 our score would jump to 440 , but it would be tough for her . For now I am just waiting for the next draw before I take that decision

Did you vote? If not plz do asap! Link in my singature!

 

[Parulhgmahajan]

Hi can anyone please guide about whether I can apply alone with my two kids for PR if I am still married and my husband does not apply for the same? Will my application be considered?

 

[Reddiered07]

Hi can anyone please guide about whether I can apply alone with my two kids for PR if I am still married and my husband does not apply for the same? Will my application be considered?

Yes you can!! Along with your kids you can take your husband with you..its up to you..there is an option of whether your spouse is accompanying with you or not.

 

[shettyskumar]

Did you vote? If not plz do asap! Link in my singature!

Voted .. sitting in 431

 

[romrumrira]

I think CRS can reach to 430 this year. But it will reduce slowly so be patient.

 

[Reddiered07]

I think CRS can reach to 430 this year. But it will reduce slowly so be patient.

What cut-off are we looking at for june 6th draw? Can we expect 439?

 

[romrumrira]

What cut-off are we looking at for june 6th draw? Can we expect 439?

Yes, with very high chance I believe.

 

[Chillovski]

Good morning fellow dwellers of the Ray of Hope.

I had been waiting since last October for the golden ITA, and was lucky enough to get one yesterday. Profile got picked up by Ontario for the HCP category back in Feb, and after days and days of waiting and waiting, finally got nominated and within 5 days got the coveted ITA.

Keep up the hope people, increase your CRS whenever you can and you're in for something good.

Now comes another waiting period... that of post-ITA.... I know that nothing is guaranteed until I get the visa stamped on the passport, but this piece of good news was much needed for me.

All's well that ends well!