Ray of Hope - 91st Draw
- Thread starter AlliBatista
- Start date
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read up your comments bro. They are contrary.. you say one thing first and switch to opposite next.. and before talking on any story read the basics and truths. Half knowledge is the most dangerous tool ..
What exactly is contrary? You're talking about a time in history which is not relevant to anything in today's world - the entire world acted by invading other people's lands/countries during those times. We now have proper systems put in place to control the flow of immigration.
I am saying that you are stating facts of History!!! Not saying blaming but reminding and educating about it
25th May IELTS results were not so great like last to last time so not expecting much surge cause of ielts ....
CRS Trend and Data analysis
Last Draw 23rd May - CRS 440.
Target for 2018 - 300,000 immigrants
Economic Class (EE+PNP) - 135,000 (https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html)
Considering 1 ITA = 2.23 landed immigrants and an average rejection/decline rate of 30-33% (source open data for 2015/2016)
135000/2.23 = 60500 successful ITAs.
Add allowance for rejections of around 30% for sake of calculations, it is expected IRCC will need to issue around 87500-88000 ITAs (They issued similar numbers for 2017)
As of now, there have been 10 draws in 2018 with a total of 31000 ITAs.
Considering they will issue in the range of 87000-88000 ITAs for this year, that leaves us with roughly 56000 ITA for the remainder of the year. Since we are in the 22nd week of the year and a draw due next week, it is expected that there will be 16 draws for the remaining period of the year (Bi-weekly draw). This brings average draw size to 3500, which is what CIC is maintaining as of now.
Outlook
So unless they bring some variance in the draw size, by issuing an increased number of ITAs to over 4000+ and/or conduct back to back draws as they did in 2017, the scores CAN NOT drop below 438-439.
The reason for that is 100% increase in the EE pool from 44000 candidates in 2017 to 85000+ now.
Going by the averages for 2018, Nearly 240+ candidates enter the pool every day with scores of over 440.
The EE pool is dynamic and profiles expire, become ineligible or new ones are created each day. There are also candidates whose CRS scores increase due to better language scores, work experience, education or sibling points and then there are others whose CRS drops due to age or becomes ineligible due to expired IELTS/ECA.
So if they maintain 3500 ITAs per draw and bi-weekly draws, then it looks like an extremely bleak picture and a significant drop in CRS cannot be anticipated.
I am #foreverhopeful that CIC will take steps to reduce CRS by conducting back to back draws and increased ITAs per draw. The reason they may want to drop the CRS (even for a brief period) would be just to bring some balance in the pool and to allow a different mix of skill sets and profiles/backgrounds etc.
But can not speculate when that would happen
Forwarded message, From Kubier.....
Last Draw 23rd May - CRS 440.
Target for 2018 - 300,000 immigrants
Economic Class (EE+PNP) - 135,000 (https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html)
Considering 1 ITA = 2.23 landed immigrants and an average rejection/decline rate of 30-33% (source open data for 2015/2016)
135000/2.23 = 60500 successful ITAs.
Add allowance for rejections of around 30% for sake of calculations, it is expected IRCC will need to issue around 87500-88000 ITAs (They issued similar numbers for 2017)
As of now, there have been 10 draws in 2018 with a total of 31000 ITAs.
Considering they will issue in the range of 87000-88000 ITAs for this year, that leaves us with roughly 56000 ITA for the remainder of the year. Since we are in the 22nd week of the year and a draw due next week, it is expected that there will be 16 draws for the remaining period of the year (Bi-weekly draw). This brings average draw size to 3500, which is what CIC is maintaining as of now.
Outlook
So unless they bring some variance in the draw size, by issuing an increased number of ITAs to over 4000+ and/or conduct back to back draws as they did in 2017, the scores CAN NOT drop below 438-439.
The reason for that is 100% increase in the EE pool from 44000 candidates in 2017 to 85000+ now.
Going by the averages for 2018, Nearly 240+ candidates enter the pool every day with scores of over 440.
The EE pool is dynamic and profiles expire, become ineligible or new ones are created each day. There are also candidates whose CRS scores increase due to better language scores, work experience, education or sibling points and then there are others whose CRS drops due to age or becomes ineligible due to expired IELTS/ECA.
So if they maintain 3500 ITAs per draw and bi-weekly draws, then it looks like an extremely bleak picture and a significant drop in CRS cannot be anticipated.
I am #foreverhopeful that CIC will take steps to reduce CRS by conducting back to back draws and increased ITAs per draw. The reason they may want to drop the CRS (even for a brief period) would be just to bring some balance in the pool and to allow a different mix of skill sets and profiles/backgrounds etc.
But can not speculate when that would happen
Forwarded message, From Kubier.....
Not personal most of the people in multiple groups were not able to reach CLB9.....
For the few months that I have been a member of this forum, I never witnessed this kind of acrimony. People have been encouraging....suggestive and civil to say the least. Even those who got an ITA are staying in the group to pull up others who are left behind. We are not competition at least we never felt it before and we dont want to feel so either. Please let the bonhomie continue....there are ample thigs to take stress from elsewhere.
Sorry to hear that. Try again. I am thinking of doing ietls for the first time on June 30th. CELPIP is really weird with their grading. Twice I came short in ONE section of clb 9 or above.