Outland U.S. times are BRUTAL, any ideas about Inland?

[waitingforfi]

I've been monitoring processing times for sponsoring spouses. These numbers have been increasing steadily for a while now. Late last year the estimates were 11-12 months for NYC office. Right now the estimate is more than double that estimate at 30 months, not including Stage 1 for the assessment of the sponsor.

So, does anyone have a sense of how long INLAND processing takes? Stage 1 (initial assessment) is listed at 8 months right now. But there is no hint at how long Stage 2 might take. Any ideas?

 

[Zarilenth]

Hey, just so you know outland US spousal sponsorship is not processed through NY or LA. It goes through the Ottawa office, and typically it's running at 8-9 months from submission date to COPR papers.

 

[Rob_TO]

The offices for outland PR processing are listed here: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/offices/apply-where.asp
For US, the office is CPC-Ottawa. Not LA or NY. LA or NY are only used in case interviews are required or there are other problems with the application.

 

[waitingforfi]

Thank you both! You deserve a thousand "likes".

Zarilenth, is that 8-9 month estimate based on the experiences of the folks posting here (I've seen it referred to several times) or is that number posted somewhere? I haven't been able to find it on the CIC web site.

 

[scylla]

It's based on what most people are actually experiencing. You can find the officially posted processing times here:

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/times/perm/fc-spouses.asp#west

Note that the officially posted times represent how long it too for the VO to complete processing for 80% of applications (in other words, it's not an average). This means that most files are processed faster than the posted time, some quite a lot faster.

 

[Zarilenth]

Thank you both! You deserve a thousand "likes".

Zarilenth, is that 8-9 month estimate based on the experiences of the folks posting here (I've seen it referred to several times) or is that number posted somewhere? I haven't been able to find it on the CIC web site.

No problem. that 8-9 month estimate is based on what the people here are posting I have a spreadsheet in my signature (the CPP-Ottawa one) - that might give you an idea of how long it will take.
The CIC website lists 15 months, but that just means 80% will be processed in 15 months or less.
This is a more in-depth look at the waiting times, just download the data set and look at the Ottawa visa office:
http://data.gc.ca/data/en/dataset/427337d0-7c36-4fed-8428-c6a63f8c19b3

As someone stated before, for us who are going through Ottawa, the times are:
20% - 7 months, 30% - 7 months, 50% - 9 months, 70% - 12 months, and 80% - 15 months.

 

[waitingforfi]

Thank you scylla!

Thanks as well for the data set, Zarilenth, it's very interesting indeed. If you happen to have the time:

Would it be fair to assume that applicants who have difficulty proving that they are in a committed relationship or apply from countries with a history of abuse are the ones that end up at the far end of that scale? Or is there a certain amount of randomness built into whether your application takes a short or long time to process? Or is it more likely just to depend on the number of applications submitted at the same time, regardless of whether you have an 'easy' or 'dubious' case?

 

[Zarilenth]

Thank you scylla!

Thanks as well for the data set, Zarilenth, it's very interesting indeed. If you happen to have the time:

Would it be fair to assume that applicants who have difficulty proving that they are in a committed relationship or apply from countries with a history of abuse are the ones that end up at the far end of that scale? Or is there a certain amount of randomness built into whether your application takes a short or long time to process? Or is it more likely just to depend on the number of applications submitted at the same time, regardless of whether you have an 'easy' or 'dubious' case?

No problem. I believe you can have a quick (7-8 mo) application if you have no red flags (ie. never married before, haven't applied for pr before, you have a long relationship, etc). Typically the application takes longer if there is something strange with the file - like your spouse has tried to immigrate to Canada before, or has been on an exclusion order.
Sometimes though, (very rarely) and seemingly normal file will 'get lost' and take a long time, but that's very rare. American's do have a lot of freedom with their applications, as there is a very small amount of marriage fraud coming from the states.
Hope that made sense, I'm trying to answer at work and get distracted, haha.

 

[waitingforfi]

That made a lot of sense and was a great comfort. My wife and I have lots of documentation to support our application, but the big differences between processing times and the sickness of living apart for a long time keeps me worried. Your reply makes me feel better about things. Thanks very much!

 

[keesio]

No problem. I believe you can have a quick (7-8 mo) application if you have no red flags (ie. never married before, haven't applied for pr before, you have a long relationship, etc). Typically the application takes longer if there is something strange with the file - like your spouse has tried to immigrate to Canada before, or has been on an exclusion order.
Sometimes though, (very rarely) and seemingly normal file will 'get lost' and take a long time, but that's very rare. American's do have a lot of freedom with their applications, as there is a very small amount of marriage fraud coming from the states.
Hope that made sense, I'm trying to answer at work and get distracted, haha.

Agreed. Another factor in longer timelines are applications where not all the documents were initially provided (some people try their luck and send off their application without the FBI certificate in hopes of sending it later) or if all the fees were not paid up front (did not pay RPRF upfront). If everything is in order, 7-8 months is not unusual. My wife's application took almost exactly 7 months from the date the application was received by CIC to when she got COPR in her mailbox.

 

[Bright_skies]

All good advice.
A lawyer told me three things cause "look-closer" flags: previous experience with CIC, age difference and education difference.

I applied Inland last June (I'm from the US, common law) and got AIP and DM (1st and 2nd stage approval) on the same day, February 4th. A week later I got my landing letter. I was able to live here in Canada during the process, which meant a lot to us.
We were certainly not unique in getting AIP and DM on the same day, and those who didn't were often getting them fairly close together (1 month or so)

Just wanted to add that perspective on Inland for you.
Canada offers a lots of compassionate avenues for family immigration, we are very lucky!

Hope your process goes smoothly!