Here is how the CRS will go below 400 (Updated with more graphs)

[TanakaM]

Interesting analysis on page 1.

To all the naysayers - I used to cry hoarse on the forum not so many months back that CRS would never fall below 450... I ate my own words since... you can never say never with IRCC. Only thing that is constant with them is unpredictability.

Top man, eating your words is not easy.lol
I think scores will go below 400 but not much lower. Maybe 390 will be the new magical mark.

 

[thestunner316]

Top man, eating your words is not easy.lol
I think scores will go below 400 but not much lower. Maybe 390 will be the new magical mark.

i had the "eat my own words" line on my signature for some months...

i still think scores wont go below 400, i could be wrong obviously but have a feeling they will decrease the number of ITAs being sent 2nd half of year.

 

[TanakaM]

i had the "eat my own words" line on my signature for some months...

i still think scores wont go below 400, i could be wrong obviously but have a feeling they will decrease the number of ITAs being sent 2nd half of year.

Lol, be prepared to put that status back up again. They have a target to meet so they can't decrease any time soon. Maybe in the last quarter.

 

[ivancabrer]

Draw happened, 414.

I'm at 412 .

Inmine, can you make your next prediction based on the score distribution?
Maybe by next draw I'm in, maybe, because of the changes, I'm not... but I see the 411+ segment had fewer entries than last time. 181 candidates per day I think.

Well, I'll be waiting for your projections for next draw.

 

[TanakaM]

If the round happens tomorrow 31/May (hopefully):
CRS score = 412 (+/-1)

Dude how do you keep getting these predictions right?? You need to consider gambling.lol

 

[Lyssiej]

Draw happened, 414.

I'm at 412 .

Inmine, can you make your next prediction based on the score distribution?
Maybe by next draw I'm in, maybe, because of the changes, I'm not... but I see the 411+ segment had fewer entries than last time. 181 candidates per day I think.

Well, I'll be waiting for your projections for next draw.

Yes! Would love a prediction for the next draw!

 

[Immime2017]

Dude how do you keep getting these predictions right?? You need to consider gambling.lol

haha, alright, I am gonna go do some more math to predict the next round. I doubt it will be on June 7th because of the June 6th changes, so most likely it will happen the following week.

 

[nanning]

haha, alright, I am gonna go do some more math to predict the next round. I doubt it will be on June 7th because of the June 6th changes, so most likely it will happen the following week.

​

I doubt the CRS cutoff will fall under 400 in July since many people have been joining the pool.
The cutoff will fall very slowly I think.

 

[ivancabrer]

haha, alright, I am gonna go do some more math to predict the next round. I doubt it will be on June 7th because of the June 6th changes, so most likely it will happen the following week.

Thank you man.

I think next draw could be on June 14th, at 409 with 3800+ ITAs.
Maybe 411, if the changes really make a difference in the end result.

 

[Immime2017]

Not this time, I'm awaiting eagerly at 408.


Curious to know your NOC. I've become your fan, truly. Not just this draw, but your predictions were correct for the previous two (regular) draws too.
When does we 408ers' turn arrive, any hints before you do the actual math?

@xibalban
My NOC: 0213

Thank you man.

I think next draw could be on June 14th, at 409 with 3800+ ITAs.
Maybe 411, if the changes really make a difference in the end result.

Here are my tentative predictions:
If June 7th: 408 (+/-1)
If June 14th: 411 (+/-2)

Will confirm later towards the draw time.

I doubt the CRS cutoff will fall under 400 in July since many people have been joining the pool.
The cutoff will fall very slowly I think.

@nanning
You are correct, the number of candidates joining have been increasing significantly and I plan on updating my predictions accordingly. There are multiple scenarios regarding the increase, and I will write up all the possible cases.

 

[VIKSWA]

@Immime2017 any chances for 389 in the future draws ?

 

[Immime2017]

@Immime2017 any chances for 389 in the future draws ?

It depends whether the increase of candidate added per day is temporary or permanent. If it is temporary, then 389 is possible around August. Wait a couple of rounds more and you will see the trend, if by the end of June the score doesn't go below 405, then you should think of ways to increase your score.

 

[_Aspirant]

subscribing...

 

[Immime2017]

It doesn't seem like it's going to happen today! ​

 

[Immime2017]

I love the new changes. It will give us more transparency into the system moving forward, and will make predictions easier. For example, if they want to invite 30,000 more candidates, and we know that they take exactly 3500 per round, it will be easier and more accurate to predict the trends. Currently, I just make an assumption on how many candidates they will take based on the # of candidates they have been taking.