It seems almost everyone whose application reached on Jan 4th got in and there is a decent chance that some applications from Jan 5 as well getting in.
I was trying to extrapolate the expected time for processing based on available info instead of just guesses.
According to the following link, CIC should have 42387 at the start of 2015.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/backgrounders/2013/2013-10-29a.asp
With 5k apps, backlog go up by 10k (assuming 2 per application on average). so 52387 ~53k.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2015-01-16.asp
The above page says backlog elimination is on track and 20k to be admitted in 2015. so backlog should be around 33k at the end of the year.
With 10k apps incoming in 2016, backlog goes back to approx 53k (same assumption of 2 per app average).
It looks likes if intake of parents is 20k each year and they take in 10k apps each year, parents backlog will no longer be going down and as intake and visa issued would be similar in numbers. For 2016 the intake is the same at 20k according to the following link.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2016-03-08.asp
Based on the above, for those of us who are just now getting charged, we can assume we are near the end of the 53k.
So at the end of this 2016, we would be at around 33k mark.
At the end of 2017, we would be 13k.
By the end of 2018, we should be processed.
Also if your application is near the top of the pile, you should see movement on your application sometime next year while those applied in 2014 and 2015 should see a lot of things happening this year.
Anywhere from 2-3 years for the entire lot of 2016.
According to CIC, they are currently processing nov 2011 applications. After they are done with Nov and Dec apps of 2011, the next ones will be 2014 since 2012 and 2013 were closed.
Have I missed any document that has more info regarding this?
I have seen much larger backlog numbers thrown about (over 100k). What are they based on?
