Okay, this is just theory. But, I was very intrigued at understanding why are there times when there is a round of invitation within a week of the previous one and why is there a gap of upto 3 weeks at a time. The most obvious answer is that there is no specific reason and they just want to slow the intake to clear backlogs. But could there be another reason?
The more I look at it the more it feels like there's an inherent cut-off of around 440 points which CIC maintains by controlling the time between two draws.
So I took data for all draws starting November 8, 2017. I chose this date as this was the time when they started releasing draws with a fixed round figure of Invitations issued (like "2000") Prior to this there was a different method they used to determine the number of invitations to be issued, example 2,757 or 2,801 in the previous ones. After that it was just a matter of a simple scatter plot to see if there was a correlation between the number of days from the previous draw vs. cut-off of the previous draw.
The graph has cut-off score for the previous draw on the Y-Axis and number of days from the previous draw from the X-Axis, From this, you can't really draw a conclusion but if you look closely, it kind of shows that there has never been a single time whenever the previous cut-off was greater than 447 that the draw took more than 2 weeks.
Also the 4 times the score actually went below 440, all 4 times CIC made the next draw after atleast 21 days. This gives time for the pool to fill up and the cut-offs to go up again.
Maybe I'm just seeing this because this theory came to my head. With only 33 data points it is hard to tell what's fact and what's coincidence.
The more I look at it the more it feels like there's an inherent cut-off of around 440 points which CIC maintains by controlling the time between two draws.
So I took data for all draws starting November 8, 2017. I chose this date as this was the time when they started releasing draws with a fixed round figure of Invitations issued (like "2000") Prior to this there was a different method they used to determine the number of invitations to be issued, example 2,757 or 2,801 in the previous ones. After that it was just a matter of a simple scatter plot to see if there was a correlation between the number of days from the previous draw vs. cut-off of the previous draw.
The graph has cut-off score for the previous draw on the Y-Axis and number of days from the previous draw from the X-Axis, From this, you can't really draw a conclusion but if you look closely, it kind of shows that there has never been a single time whenever the previous cut-off was greater than 447 that the draw took more than 2 weeks.
Also the 4 times the score actually went below 440, all 4 times CIC made the next draw after atleast 21 days. This gives time for the pool to fill up and the cut-offs to go up again.
Maybe I'm just seeing this because this theory came to my head. With only 33 data points it is hard to tell what's fact and what's coincidence.
