Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

[carl321]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

well if you make his 1st draw the 6th

then spot on

i got an ITA on 453 phew

 

[fpnc2983]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

well if you make his 1st draw the 6th

then spot on

i got an ITA on 453 phew

thanks. i am not good with statistics or numbers for that matter ;D

 

[shasha1111]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

thanks. i am not good with statistics or numbers for that matter ;D

it looks that my estimation is fairly good~~ after all >600 are gone, the score gets to around 455, see the 6th draw

 

[shasha1111]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

8) Hi Sasha, have you updated your simulation based on the 5th Draw ?

Yes. the total # of ppl in the pool, as i estimated before, is around 75k. My estimation is very close.

 

[shasha1111]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

brilliant work sasha,

we were just off by 27points

actually, my first draw would be the 6th draw. my assumption is that all ppl with >600 are gone and then that is the first draw in my model.

 

[shasha1111]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

correct me if i am wrong. 6th draw over and its already at 453.
this kills your statistical model that i would take 10 months for the score to drop 400?

My model is very close to the real number. The assumption i made is all ppl >600 are gone. 5th draw still have a larger amount of >600 that i did not count into my model at all.
If you see the 6th draw. it is much closer. ^^ i will modify the model again this afternoon and see what i will get.
meanwhile, a bad news. there are more ppl with pnp than i thought. that means it will takes longer to drop under 400.

 

[Karolis]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

My model is very close to the real number. The assumption i made is all ppl >600 are gone. 5th draw still have a larger amount of >600 that i did not count into my model at all.
If you see the 6th draw. it is much closer. ^^ i will modify the model again this afternoon and see what i will get.
meanwhile, a bad news. there are more ppl with pnp than i thought. that means it will takes longer to drop under 400.

I am just wondering about your assumption of normal distribution as you can get scores that are unrealistic on the right tail and hence bias the score threshold. How big is a bias do you think?

 

[rojiv94]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

Yes. the total # of ppl in the pool, as i estimated before, is around 75k. My estimation is very close.

There is only 8K ppl remaining in the pool.

75K ppl in the pool is may be your guts feeling, but it is not right.

 

[shasha1111]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

There is only 8K ppl remaining in the pool.

75K ppl in the pool is may be your guts feeling, but it is not right.

May I ask where did you get the 8k ppl in the pool? And article from the CA gov? Would really appreciate it if you can provide some link maybe?
Thanks!

 

[Karolis]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

May I ask where did you get the 8k ppl in the pool? And article from the CA gov? Would really appreciate it if you can provide some link maybe?
Thanks!

He assumes that excel spreadsheet is 10% of population thats all

 

[shasha1111]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

He assumes that excel spreadsheet is 10% of population thats all

i see.

 

[211]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

My profile number was E0003070** when I completed profile.
I guessed number should mean something, so I wanted to think I was a 70** th appliacants.
What do you think or what was your profile number and when was it?