Startup Visa Program Timeline

[RonaldoNazario]

It’s possible, I’m not saying I know. But I want to comment on your statement:

“That’s why the government website shows it takes longer than 10 years.”

Actually, the logic of that statement implies the opposite of what you’re suggesting.

If the 500-cap were only principal applicants, and dependents were not included, then the official processing time should be showing "more than 10 years.

If dependents were counted in the 500, the government website should show close to a century, not just over 10 years.

Here’s why:

43,800 ÷ 500 = 87.6 years

They don’t process 500 per year
They can process 10,000 per year, however they will approve just 500. And counting 80% refusal rate.
They will process 2,500.
500 approved
2000 refusals
Based on the 80% refusal rate for this year

 

[Ansionuk]

They don’t process 500 per year
They can process 10,000 per year, however they will approve just 500. And counting 80% refusal rate.
They will process 2,500.
500 approved
2000 refusals
Based on the 80% refusal rate for this year

correct understanding.


and for anyone saying the quota only counts principle applicants, please make yourself a favor and take zero advise from them. fire them immediately if they are your rep.

 

[Hali-2025]

Yes, according to him it’s principal applicants only. I’m not 100% sure, but the logic is actually very convincing.


Let’s use simple math to see what the “500” would mean if IRCC counted dependents inside that number:

• Assume 30% of the 500 goes to SE → 150 SE
• The remaining 70% → 350 SUV

Now look at a real example:
Our group has 4 principal applicants, all married and each with children → 19 people total.


If IRCC counted dependents, then:


350 total spots ÷ 19 people per application = 18.4 SUV applications per year.


Even if we reduce the family size by half, the number still stays under 40 SUV applications.
That’s almost nothing.


Now compare that to the actual intake reality:

• Annual new application cap: 10 per DO
• There are about 79 DOs
• Even if each DO uses only half of their allowance → 5 applications each

That alone is:
5 × 80 ≈ 400 new SUV applications per year,
not including backlogs, which are already massive.


So mathematically it is impossible that the “500” includes families.
It only makes little sense if the quota refers to principal applicants only.

Hi mate
You are the one who is absolutely correct in math!
You are the pro. in math, aren't you!
Cheers
Wish all of SUV friends will have a good news soonest
Hali

 

[RonaldoNazario]

I don’t think the Bill C-12 will go through as it is. You never know with politicians but I do think it’s not going to pass. What do you guys think or understand to this?

 

[Fiat@fifo]

I don’t think the Bill C-12 will go through as it is. You never know with politicians but I do think it’s not going to pass. What do you guys think or understand to this?

Really no one can definitely answer your question. But I think it will pass with some amendments especially in Ministerial broad control and definition of public interest. yesterday Conservatives introduced New Canada Immigration Bill C12 Amendments Proposed.

https://immigrationnewscanada.ca/ca...hlid=39bde00461296d85fab07873fe5f75e65d0f3a33

 

[RonaldoNazario]

Really no one can definitely answer your question. But I think it will pass with some amendments especially in Ministerial broad control and definition of public interest. yesterday Conservatives introduced New Canada Immigration Bill C12 Amendments Proposed.

https://immigrationnewscanada.ca/ca...hlid=39bde00461296d85fab07873fe5f75e65d0f3a33

Yes it will pass but the are worried about mass cancellations.
You think this could be good for SUV specifically?

 

[Fiat@fifo]

jan 2023 to 2025 feb they issued 8000+ LOS

From 2014 to 2021, the total number was 1,120, and in just two years, it jumped to 8,000!!!!!!

 

[Fiat@fifo]

From 2014 to 2021, the total number was 1,120, and in just two years, it jumped to 8,000!!!!!!

I was mistaken. The total number of applications received from 2016 to 2021 was 3,772.

 

[VTMan]

Between April 2024 and October 2025, the backlog grew by over 23,000 files even after stricter intake limits took effect.

Source- https://www.visaverge.com/news/canada-startup-visa-survives-overhaul-amid-fractured-timeline/

 

[Fiat@fifo]

Between April 2024 and October 2025, the backlog grew by over 23,000 files even after stricter intake limits took effect.

Source- https://www.visaverge.com/news/canada-startup-visa-survives-overhaul-amid-fractured-timeline/

Thanks for sharing this information — I realize now that I was very conservative in my estimation. By the way, the 500 annual quota for SUV and SE is including dependents, as I heard from a lawyer on YouTube.”

 

[RonaldoNazario]

Between April 2024 and October 2025, the backlog grew by over 23,000 files even after stricter intake limits took effect.

Source- https://www.visaverge.com/news/canada-startup-visa-survives-overhaul-amid-fractured-timeline/

Thanks

According to IRCC statement most of them will be returned. So the backlog will decrease

—-Each calendar year, we’ll only be considering 10 complete group applications per designated organization. Applications will be considered on a first-come, first-served basis.

If you apply after the annual cap is reached, we’ll return your application and reimburse the processing fees.——

 

[RonaldoNazario]

Thanks

According to IRCC statement most of them will be returned. So the backlog will decrease

—-Each calendar year, we’ll only be considering 10 complete group applications per designated organization. Applications will be considered on a first-come, first-served basis.

If you apply after the annual cap is reached, we’ll return your application and reimburse the processing fees.——

Good for the ones who DOs respect the annual cap and the ministerial instructions