Startup Visa Program Timeline

[Fiat@fifo]

what kind of decisions? do you mean quota of 2025 is already fulfilled 2000 files already accepted and no more file remain or 2025? please give some details

Just to clarify — by "decision," I mean either approval or rejection, as IRCC defines it in their explanation of how processing time is calculated:
"Your processing time starts the day we receive your complete application and ends when we make a decision."

I didn’t mean that the 2025 quota has been fulfilled. On the contrary, my point was that the spike in processing time may actually indicate that IRCC has started moving forward on older files, potentially clearing part of the backlog.

Of course, this is only my personal anticipation and doesn’t necessarily reflect what’s actually happening behind the scenes.

 

[Aleem123]

Just to clarify — by "decision," I mean either approval or rejection, as IRCC defines it in their explanation of how processing time is calculated:
"Your processing time starts the day we receive your complete application and ends when we make a decision."

I didn’t mean that the 2025 quota has been fulfilled. On the contrary, my point was that the spike in processing time may actually indicate that IRCC has started moving forward on older files, potentially clearing part of the backlog.

Of course, this is only my personal anticipation and doesn’t necessarily reflect what’s actually happening behind the scenes.

Perfectly analysed that processing time increase gives hope to those around 50 months or more of wait, need to hear from those successful and also not successful to analyse where we stand and what are our chances

 

[JDI]

Just to clarify — by "decision," I mean either approval or rejection, as IRCC defines it in their explanation of how processing time is calculated:
"Your processing time starts the day we receive your complete application and ends when we make a decision."

I didn’t mean that the 2025 quota has been fulfilled. On the contrary, my point was that the spike in processing time may actually indicate that IRCC has started moving forward on older files, potentially clearing part of the backlog.

Of course, this is only my personal anticipation and doesn’t necessarily reflect what’s actually happening behind the scenes.

my feeling is same, even more i feel that just jump is due to no more PR lefts for 2025.

 

[Fiat@fifo]

my feeling is same, even more i feel that just jump is due to no more PR lefts for 2025.

Maybe, everything is possible — nobody really knows what's going on. But personally, I don’t think that’s the reason. There are several factors that make me doubt it. For one, I haven’t heard of any SUV applicant getting PR since November or December last year — and my lawyer says the same.

Also, if the 2025 quota was already fulfilled, we probably wouldn’t have seen that sudden update in the processing time. That jump might actually point to something else, like IRCC starting to work through older files.

 

[Aleem123]

Maybe, everything is possible — nobody really knows what's going on. But personally, I don’t think that’s the reason. There are several factors that make me doubt it. For one, I haven’t heard of any SUV applicant getting PR since November or December last year — and my lawyer says the same.

Also, if the 2025 quota was already fulfilled, we probably wouldn’t have seen that sudden update in the processing time. That jump might actually point to something else, like IRCC starting to work through older files.

Please keep us posted about any approvals or denials if you happen to know from your lawyer

When did you apply?

 

[Fiat@fifo]

Please keep us posted about any approvals or denials if you happen to know from your lawyer

When did you apply?

Sep. 2021

 

[Aleem123]

Sep. 2021

You will surely get good news by August - September, that’s my gut feeling

 

[Fiat@fifo]

You will surely get good news by August - September, that’s my gut feeling

Inshallah to everyone.

 

[BigDreamBoy]

IRCC may make decisions on many applications during the last week, the majority of them from longstanding applicants , and that's justifying the horrible jump.

This jump is due to less quota and high volume of applications and priority/non priority

We all know there are several people for 2020/2021 still waiting for decisions....now out of 9000 (Estimated) total SUVs (LoS) 5000 are through priority (pure assumption). But 2025 has quota of 2000 only....in 2026-2027, 1000 only. so by 2027 only priority applications are processed with 1000 priority applications still pending. If they continue with 1000 in 2028 it will be completed by 2029. But even after that there are 37 priority DOs each with limit of 10 LoS so 37*10=370 priority applications each year = 2025 (370), 2026 (370), 2027 (370), 2028 (370) = 1480 new priority applications so non priority applications (even from 2020) will hopefully be processed by 2029, thats 9 years = 108 months.

 

[Fiat@fifo]

Hello ,

I came across some information regarding the Start-up Visa Program application inventory, and I believe it's worth sharing with you.

Processing Time for Start-Up Visa Program​

Based on the latest IRCC internal data from October 2024, the Startup Visa program shows significant application volume with 36,577 persons and 11,508 applications currently in the system across all processing stages. With applications in inventory and annual admission targets of 5,000, there’s approximately 6 years’ worth of inventory at current processing capacity, explaining the extended processing times.

Realistic Timeline Expectations

Given the current inventory levels, applicants should plan for processing times at the upper end of estimates and consider the priority stream criteria to potentially reduce wait times.

• Standard Processing: as of June 2025: 37-40 months for regular stream applications, reflecting the substantial inventory backlog.
• Priority Stream: Estimated 24+ months for applications meeting priority criteria (backed by $75,000+ Canadian capital or Canada’s Tech Network members), though official data not yet available.

Canada Start-Up Visa Success Rate​

The Canada Startup Visa program demonstrates strong and improving approval rates, with a clear upward trajectory over the past three years.

Approval rates:

• 2022: 79%
• 2023: 80%
• 2024: 86%

The improving trend suggests that both applicants and designated organizations have become more sophisticated in preparing applications that meet IRCC requirements.

With an 86% approval rate in 2024, applicants who successfully secure a Letter of Support from a designated organization and submit complete applications have strong prospects for permanent residence approval, making the program’s primary challenge obtaining initial support from designated organizations rather than the final IRCC decision.


https://sobirovs.com/startups/start-up-visa-program/

 

[abufaris76]

IRCC may make decisions on many applications during the last week, the majority of them from longstanding applicants , and that's justifying the horrible jump.

quota for 2026 will be 1000 so 51 months might increase as the backlog is still huge for suv

 

[Fiat@fifo]

Hello,

If IRCC is currently processing 12,000 Start-Up Visa applications,
what do you anticipate the ratio of priority to non-priority files to be?

 

[Fiat@fifo]

quota for 2026 will be 1000 so 51 months might increase as the backlog is still huge for suv

If IRCC is thinking logically, they should either pause new Start-Up Visa applications or significantly increase the quota. Keeping the 2026 cap at just 1,000 while the backlog remains massive only makes things worse. At this point, they really need to rethink their strategy — it's time to scratch their heads, not just stretch the timeline further.

 

[BigDreamBoy]

Hello ,

I came across some information regarding the Start-up Visa Program application inventory, and I believe it's worth sharing with you.

Processing Time for Start-Up Visa Program​

Based on the latest IRCC internal data from October 2024, the Startup Visa program shows significant application volume with 36,577 persons and 11,508 applications currently in the system across all processing stages. With applications in inventory and annual admission targets of 5,000, there’s approximately 6 years’ worth of inventory at current processing capacity, explaining the extended processing times.

Realistic Timeline Expectations

Given the current inventory levels, applicants should plan for processing times at the upper end of estimates and consider the priority stream criteria to potentially reduce wait times.

• Standard Processing: as of June 2025: 37-40 months for regular stream applications, reflecting the substantial inventory backlog.
• Priority Stream: Estimated 24+ months for applications meeting priority criteria (backed by $75,000+ Canadian capital or Canada’s Tech Network members), though official data not yet available.

Canada Start-Up Visa Success Rate​

The Canada Startup Visa program demonstrates strong and improving approval rates, with a clear upward trajectory over the past three years.

Approval rates:

• 2022: 79%
• 2023: 80%
• 2024: 86%

The improving trend suggests that both applicants and designated organizations have become more sophisticated in preparing applications that meet IRCC requirements.

With an 86% approval rate in 2024, applicants who successfully secure a Letter of Support from a designated organization and submit complete applications have strong prospects for permanent residence approval, making the program’s primary challenge obtaining initial support from designated organizations rather than the final IRCC decision.


https://sobirovs.com/startups/start-up-visa-program/

If we go by this data, and assume the current inventory is 33,000 applicants with 2000-1000 quota thats 32 years of inventory…
I believe the 2000 number is for LOS or startups only then it makes sense and this 2000-1000 quota is shared between SUV and Federal self employed category

 

[Fiat@fifo]

I came across a devastating article titled "Canada’s Start-Up Visa Program: Innovation Undermined by Bureaucratic Failures" and wanted to share it with you:

https://cila.co/canadas-start-up-visa-program-innovation-undermined-by-bureaucratic-failures/