Some Clarifications:
The first part of these observations is not much about the situation presented by
@sjasim but in response to some continued misleading commentary here about RO compliance and PR card applications.
On a superficial level, the PR card application involves a review of the PR's compliance with the Residency Obligation. On this level, on the surface, a PR who makes a PR card application when the PR is NOT in compliance with the RO is at RISK of losing PR status IF the PR is still not in compliance with the RO.
BUT WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING,
under-the-hood so to say, is more nuanced than that.
In particular, in actual practice, even though the PR was not in compliance with the RO as of the date the PR card application was made, the risk of a decision terminating PR status largely depends on whether the PR is still NOT in compliance as of a
LATER date . . .
-- when the PR is scheduled for a formal Residency Determination pursuant to a local CIC office investigation (typically the date of an interview, which is scheduled to take place while the PR card application is still pending), or
-- when the PR is examined at a PoE; that is, if the PR has left Canada in the meantime, while the PR card application is pending, if the PR is still not in compliance as of the day the PR arrives at a PoE when returning to Canada there is a risk the PoE officials will issue a Departure Order terminating PR status (subject to right of appeal), or
-- when there is an application for a PR Travel Document application; that is, if the PR is abroad and not in compliance with the RO on the date a PR TD application is made, the PR TD may be denied, terminating the PR's status (subject to right of appeal)
AND TO BE CLEAR . . . even if the PR was in compliance with the PR RO as of the day the PR card application was made, that may NOT be enough for IRCC to issue a new PR card. In particular, if the circumstances are such that the PR is in breach of the RO AFTER applying for the PR card, while the application is pending, a formal Residency Determination can be done at a
LATER date, same as just described above (date of a local office interview attendant investigation of RO compliance; date of PoE examination when returning to Canada; date of a PR TD application), which can result in the loss of PR status if attendant any of these three circumstances the PR is NOT in compliance on the respective date . . . EVEN IF the PR WAS IN COMPLIANCE on the DATE the PR Card APPLICATION WAS MADE.
The latter affects PRs who go abroad after applying for a PR card.
As long as a PR is staying put in Canada, RO calculation credits, for days in Canada, will either increase or at least remain the same. (The latter is the situation
@sjasim is in; appears current compliance credits are around 750 days, and as long as
@sjasim stays in Canada that will remain the same until around July 7th. Thus, for
@sjasim, there is little difference, in terms of RO compliance, between applying for a PR card today or next month, or any time up to early July.)
Beyond that there is NO consensus about waiting a month or two for PRs
cutting-it-close. Sure, any margin offers some protection, and the bigger the buffer over the minimum, typically the better the odds of avoiding non-routine processing or negative
conclusions-of-fact. But given the way the PR Residency Obligation works in practice, there are simply WAY too many variables to generalize that waiting a month or two will help much. It will for some. But for many waiting will have little or no positive effect. As just noted, for example, for
@sjasim the RO calculation remains exactly the same whether it is done based on an application made today or any other day between now and July 7th (noting, though, this depends on
@sjasim staying in Canada).
In the meantime, there are a number of other factors which will typically have far more influence than the difference between applying with 731 days RO credit or 771 days. The biggest factor is the extent of ties in Canada, with strong indications of NOW being fully settled and living PERMANENTLY in Canada looming as perhaps the most important. For
@sjasim, again, full time employment IN Canada for nearly two years, is likely to have far more influence than the precise number of days he has been in Canada. This should easily outweigh the influence of waiting even two or three additional months.
Beyond that, for
@sjasim, it is impossible to reliably predict how things will go, how long it will take to get a new PR card after making the PR card application. We do not know what percentage of PRs
cutting-it-close are referred to the PRCC Sydney Client Service Unit for a second-level review (usually referred to as "Secondary Review" in this forum; noting there are whole topics here specifically about "Secondary Review"), or what percentage are referred to a local CIC office "for investigation and residency determination."
Sources/References Note: One source of information about how PR card applications are processed which appears to be largely ignored by more than a few participants in this forum commenting about the PR card application process, is the
Operational Bulletin 536 (as modified; and this should link).
A SUMMARY:
The long and the short of it, however, is not complicated: if on the face of the PR card application, such that PRCC-Sydney can adequately assess RO compliance based on what is called a "
paper review," and pursuant to that IRCC concludes the PR is in compliance with the RO, that is, there is a "
positive residency determination based on a paper review," no problem (unless there is something else, such as suspicion of fraud or such). This is ordinarily pursuant to a calculation based on the date the PR card application was made. PR in compliance as of that date, a PR card will be issued.
If, however, PRCC-Sydney is not satisfied there is enough information, based on a paper review, to make a "
positive residency determination," that triggers a referral . . . either to second-level review in the PRCC Sydney Client Service Unit . . . or to a local CIC office "
for investigation and residency determination." (Information suggesting the PR is abroad can also trigger such referrals.)
Even when there is a referral to a local CIC office for an investigation and Residency Determination, that office can request the PR to submit additional information, and if based on a paper review of the file after that, the local office concludes the PR is
CURRENTLY in compliance (regardless of calculation based on PR card application date), make a positive residency determination and send the file back to PRCC-Sydney (which will then, ordinarily, issue the new PR card).
With Regards to What is Likely to Happen for
@sjasim -- near impossible to predict whether the PR card application will be referred either to second-level review in the PRCC Sydney Client Service Unit . . . or to a local CIC office "
for investigation and residency determination," either of which would result in a significantly longer processing timeline, and potentially a much longer timeline.
That said, since it is apparent that
@sjasim returned to Canada to settle here more or less PERMANENTLY, and did this BEFORE breaching the RO, my GUESS (just a guess) is that the odds of non-routine processing are fairly good. This is largely based on distinguishing the situation for
@sjasim compared to the situations in which we generally see reports of non-routine processing. In particular, while I have not made an effort to statistically analyze the numbers relative to the many forum reports about referrals to a local office, nonetheless these typically involve PRs NOT in compliance as of the date of the PR card application (does not apply to
@sjasim). Similarly, in reference to situations involving referrals to "Secondary Review," most of these seem to involve PRs who were in breach of the RO, nonetheless allowed into Canada without being Reported, and then waited until they were in compliance with the RO before making the PR card application (similarly, not
@sjasim's situation).
