Completely agree with you on that. Definitely a waste of money if we do not move in. The only thing that I was worried was, that we currently have all that done anyway, but our plans changed recently. By getting a PR anyway would atleast allow us to move immediately if our plans works out. Age points I assume will go down, but with estimated score, we should still stay above the monthly min number approved (assuming it remains the same).
Your assumptions would be correct if you would estimate stable system (where there is little to no change of amount of applicants added to the system or amount of ITA or for what points are given and of course the quality of candidates (how many CRS points can they achieve).
But if you want somewhat realistic prediction you need to take into account all system dynamics:
1. Total amount potential competition is still growing. Simply said, world population is still growing and with it also total amount of potential immigrants that want to go to Canada. And that one can be even bigger or smaller depending how good other countries will do and tackle their problems and also how habits will change (if there will be increased or decreased desire to immigrate). But so far the world trend it simply run away and go somewhere else where you get higher value (whatever that value is).
If this increase is higher than the yearly increase of immigrants to Canada, then that will translate into more competition.
2. Express entry / PNP fame and maturity. EE was introduced in 2015 and of course it took a bit for people to understand what EE is and what they need to be able to get ITA. It also took some time for them to get what they need (at least the first round that will get you in pool). Another learning curve was about how points work and how to get more points. But by now many do know what to do (in many cases to achieve perfect language test results). As a result amount of EE applicant sky rocketed (just compare the size of the pool at the end of 2015, 2016, 2017 and today and also compare the amount of ITA given each year).
So if the size of the pool will keep increasing (which is a sign that there are more new applicants than those that get ITA and send their application), this will have impact on CRS score (and that is even if you will not consider any quality changes in the pool distribution) simply because there will be more applicants for each CRS points group.
3. Quality of EE candidates. The quality (how many CRS points do they have) is also changing. First because it is now much better understood what needs to be done in order to get more points and secondly some of those meant that are more long terms (learning French, getting new University diploma, finishing studies in Canada). However impact of these decisions will be more important in the future (as many have only decided at the end of 2017 and during 2018 to go for these long term goals.
And then there is also language perfection effort. In this case many people were held down because of the rule of combination of 4 (it is like in a video game where you must not die or be spotted otherwise you have to restart the whole mission again). people are forced to go over and over with many IELTS tries. One of the hurdle was scarcity of IELTS sessions. But they have understood the demand and introduced a good money making scheme (testing on computers where there are sessions every day).
So what it did was further pressure on CRS score. This did result recently into a score jump. But the good news is that once this is stabilized, it will not have further significant impact anymore (it will mostly push up the ITA score to the range of 450).
Now if you take into account language tests and long term goals, that will push score even further (person under 30 with Master degree and CBL 9 for 1 language + 3 years of work experience can get easily 460 CRS points and all that without having any "Canadian" bonuses).
4. Changes in EE and immigration quotas itself. This is a wild card and will depend on several factors like economy cycle, government in power or other special needs. It might reshape EE putting more priorities on PNP and lowering amount of federal only ITA. It can push towards certain professions as well; it can further emphasise French or even introduce bonuses for other skills. All that might change who will have priority.
Now with all those written above you can expect that there will be pressure on further increase of min. CRS needed for ITA in the future.
So your reality in 5 years might be CRS 460-470 for smaller amount of candidates and then bigger pool of NOC or other specialty preferred candidates. And at the same time your age points will go down by 20-25 points while you might not get any Canadian bonus (if for example you did not find employment in Canada or if it will be just a short term).
So if your current score is around 500, then you have nothing to fear, however if it is around 460, then you might not make it second time.
