Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[ElStu]

I think the next FSW draw will be in August/September! Yes, some people's opinions also make sense and June/July is possible. April, no way, the COVID cases are too much for Canada to handle. I wouldn't mind April and I'd love to get an ITA.

 

[Adam Tsao]

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html

Probably around June. The above link says the govt plans to have vaccinated everyone by September but I remember reading news that said the deliveries were rearranged so Canada would receive more doses quicker, which may help complete vaccinations in the summer. 7.5m doses are administered so far which is not bad. Maybe we can expect to see the numbers drop by the end of this month, and maybe we'll start to get some good news in May or June.

it is possible. the vaccination process is much accelerated in Canada, by Canada Day, everyone can get at least 1 dose. but the thing is that the third wave is coming...

 

[jchen2020]

Hi all, quick question - I am post FSW and during PR review process. If I get promoted by the same team (same primary occupation, same NOC while job title changed and salary changed), do I need to notify IRCC?

 

[joconstantine]

Hi all, quick question - I am post FSW and during PR review process. If I get promoted by the same team (same primary occupation, same NOC while job title changed and salary changed), do I need to notify IRCC?

No, you don't have to.
Unless you change your residency to another country, I don't think any changes post AOR matter to IRCC.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

it is possible. the vaccination process is much accelerated in Canada, by Canada Day, everyone can get at least 1 dose. but the thing is that the third wave is coming...

So they claim, but it doesn't look likely. They would have to administer ~300k vaccines a day to get the first dose to every eligible canadian by canada day. Their average right now is well below, at 170k a day. Unless they significantly ramp things up, the whole one shot by canada day thing is a pipe dream. The good news is that vaccination efforts will speed up, and I do believe they should be able to meet the herd immunity before september 30th goal.

And that makes the august/september timeframe for resuming all program draws look very possible (that is if they do intend to reopen all program draws)

 

[guelphite]

So they claim, but it doesn't look likely. They would have to administer ~300k vaccines a day to get the first dose to every eligible canadian by canada day. Their average right now is well below, at 170k a day. Unless they significantly ramp things up, the whole one shot by canada day thing is a pipe dream. The good news is that vaccination efforts will speed up, and I do believe they should be able to meet the herd immunity before september 30th goal.

And that makes the august/september timeframe for resuming all program draws look very possible (that is if they do intend to reopen all program draws)

Agreed on likely FSW timeline. The bigger risk at this point is political/economic, not vaccines.

Also, the "vaccines for all eligible Canadians" thing was never really the goal - max you're looking at 75% compliance in the eligible adult population, and the government is baking that in. So I do think they'll probably declare that particular mission accomplished by end of June. And either way, looking at Israel's experience that should be sufficient for some pretty strong herd immunity.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Agreed on likely FSW timeline. The bigger risk at this point is political/economic, not vaccines.

Also, the "vaccines for all eligible Canadians" thing was never really the goal - max you're looking at 75% compliance in the eligible adult population, and the government is baking that in. So I do think they'll probably declare that particular mission accomplished by end of June. And either way, looking at Israel's experience that should be sufficient for some pretty strong herd immunity.

Right, what I said didn't account for anti vax and other groups. I've heard Israel is enforcing vaccines to encourage more people to get them (eg. no vaccine, no gym entry etc). I doubt canada will do something like that, but in the absence of it, I don't know if they'll reach herd immunity that soon, considering their lax quarantine policies and the few breakouts of more deadly/infectious variants in the last week.

At the end of the day though, we're just sitting here hypothesizing. Even IRCC is clueless, apparently prancing around US universities telling students they'll have FSW draws "soon", whatever the hell soon is supposed to mean.

 

[guelphite]

Right, what I said didn't account for anti vax and other groups. I've heard Israel is enforcing vaccines to encourage more people to get them (eg. no vaccine, no gym entry etc). I doubt canada will do something like that, but in the absence of it, I don't know if they'll reach herd immunity that soon, considering their lax quarantine policies and the few breakouts of more deadly/infectious variants in the last week.

At the end of the day though, we're just sitting here hypothesizing. Even IRCC is clueless, apparently prancing around US universities telling students they'll have FSW draws "soon", whatever the hell soon is supposed to mean.

True. Complete herd immunity (if we get there and stay there) will have to wait until we get kids vaccinated anyways. But man is hitting 50% of the total population with Pfizer/Moderna this summer going to help. I'm very optimistic about the fall

 

[ns317]

Once they cross the 50% of population mark (which should be around 60% of all adults), then the effects will start being visible. At 0.5% per day with no serious shortage or issue in sight, they are probably going to do that by July 1.

A reasonable expectation for FSW draws to resume (and for travel restrictions to be eased a bit) would be around that time.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

True. Complete herd immunity (if we get there and stay there) will have to wait until we get kids vaccinated anyways. But man is hitting 50% of the total population with Pfizer/Moderna this summer going to help. I'm very optimistic about the fall

I'm happy for you. Your application is already in progress, and like the thousands of FSW people whose applications have been stalled, you will start to see a lot of progress in the summer. I just have a sinking feeling FSW may be gone for good, given that absolute joke of a 27k draw followed by consistent 5k CEC draws, there just doesn't seem to be any valid reason for them to even consider reopening FSW at all.. Just have to wait and see.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

There's nothing reasonable in halting fsw draws for 7 months, especially when there's the fact that it takes FSW people 1 year to land in Canada due to processing times.

What you aren't considering is the FSW applications already in progress that would rightfully get preference once borders reopen. There are already several FSW-Os whos CoPRs have expired. There's also medicals expiring while their apps are being processed. It's just extra work to keep extending and reviewing old applications wihtout any ability to move forward with them. It makes perfect sense to halt FSW draws (hopefully only temporary). Trust me, I know how frustrating it is, but looking at it from their perspective it makes perfect sense.

 

[willapp]

There's nothing reasonable in halting fsw draws for 7 months, especially when there's the fact that it takes FSW people 1 year to land in Canada due to processing times.

They are not even processing FSW applications. It's clear that FSW draws will not resume unless they start processing FSW from 2019 and 2020.

 

[guelphite]

I'm happy for you. Your application is already in progress, and like the thousands of FSW people whose applications have been stalled, you will start to see a lot of progress in the summer. I just have a sinking feeling FSW may be gone for good, given that absolute joke of a 27k draw followed by consistent 5k CEC draws, there just doesn't seem to be any valid reason for them to even consider reopening FSW at all.. Just have to wait and see.

I feel you, I think we think alike... planning for the worst. But you booked your ticket to an ITA when you hit B2 in French. The absolute worst case for FSW in the future is a targeted program with NOC-specific and French draws. The government has francophone immigration obligations to meet outside of Quebec and FSW-style draws are the only way to get there. You'll get an ITA.

 

[guelphite]

They are not even processing FSW applications. It's clear that FSW draws will not resume unless they start processing FSW from 2019 and 2020.

Not true - they are processing FSW and approving them, they just aren't issuing CoPR due to travel restrictions.

 

[willapp]

Not true - they are processing FSW and approving them, they just aren't issuing CoPR due to travel restrictions.

In some offices they are processing. Majority is stuck so overall there is not much progress.
They are apparently still issuing PPR. Saw one from Montreal office a couple of days ago.