Ray of Hope - 89th Draw

[WoundedTiger]

I have a 441 score. But my profile was made on the 27th of February.

So you are GOOD...CHILLAX will you...

 

[arthurbr]

I have a 441 score. But my profile was made on the 27th of February.

Unfortunately, you'll have to wait for the next draw.

 

[Lucaskaldo]

So you are GOOD...CHILLAX will you...

Hopefully you are right.
Have a good one mate.

 

[pls-answer]

My crs is 443, and i have not received an invitation yet. how long does it take for me to get it?

 

[JWahid]

Well the big positive from todays draw is to see that CIC is continuing with 3500 ITAs. Another one is 441 is the lowest of 2018 so far. Hopefully the draw will be regular from now on and deep down still hoping for some back to back draws so that score goes down lot quicker.

Personally, I am at 437 and I have never been this close to CRS before. Hopefully it will come down to my score and below soon.

440 for 5 months!

 

[northern sunshine]

My crs is 443, and i have not received an invitation yet. how long does it take for me to get it?

Up to 24 hours from the time of the draw. Have patience.

 

[special3220]

440 for 5 months!

Your time has come my friend. You will surely receive your ITA in the next draw if it happens within next three weeks.

 

[bobbyanimo]

Glad to see the draw again with 3500. Now it's really Ray of hope. Waiting at 439. Probably one more draw before my next bday.

 

[Eli31]

Congratulations to all winners!!!!

 

[Thay]

So i looked at above calculations and it looks like on the day of Draw - April 11th we had approx. 1928 Applicants between 441-450 CRS
(
That being said there was 1420 applicants on or above 451 CRS entering the pool between March 27 and April 4th (9 days) Average 158 per day.
There was 7 more days till draw so on the day of draw estimated pool looked like:

451+ - 2524 Applicants (158 applicants entering daily)
441-450 - 1928 Applicants (38 applicants entering daily)
431-440 - 6692 Applicants (20 applicants entering daily)

Now we had draw of 3500 so we come down to:

451+ = 0 Applicants ....After the draw day
441-450 = 952 Applicants .... After the draw day
431-450 = 6692 Applicants ... After the draw day

Lets estimate what the pool will look like on possible draw dates:

7 Days after April 18 (very unlikely)

451 = 1106 Applicants
441-450 = 1218 Applicants
431-440 = 6832 Applicants

In this scenario you can clearly see that CUT OFF would be 440 or lower. Could be anything between 338 to 440, it really depends on where exactly applicants are stuck in 431-440....

14 Days after April 25 (likely the draw day)
451 = 2212 Applicants
441-450 = 1484 Applicants
431-440 = 6972 Applicants

In this scenario we have about 196 applicants left in range of 441-450 after the draw day. That being said CRS CUT-OFF could be 441 with TBRULE or 442.



DRAW ON MAY 9 (14 Days after April 25, second draw within 14 days gap)
451 = 2212 Applicants (AGAIN)
441 - 450 = 728 Applicants
431 - 440 = 7252 Applicants

In this scenario 560 Applicants from range 431 - 440 will receive ITA's so it most likely going to be 440 CRS CUT-OFF

Based on the above i expect the cut-off to be 440 on May 9

 

[at4446]

okay sitting at 440! would it come down to 440 on May 9th?

 

[metabug]

Missed it in tie breaker
Anyways congratulations to guys who made the cut!!

 

[keebs]

Wishing everyone best of luck at the next draw

 

[Troy2245]

Personally I have experienced it waiting for draws last year until this year January! I know the excitement when you get an ITA and post ITA it's again a waiting game with more thrill! Wish everyone a ITA in upcoming draws Stay hopeful and patient

 

[noname7]

okay sitting at 440! would it come down to 440 on May 9th?

Hopefully it will. Looks like it is going to be 439 or 438 with tiebreaker.